Texas Southern vs. UTEP: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
TEXATeam statsUTEP
- Q4 9:40UTEPC. Arreola 35 yd FG GOOD10–45
- Q3 6:28UTEPT. Jones run for 33 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–42
- Q3 10:19UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to Car. Cheeks for 13 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–35
- Q3 12:04UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to J. Nash for 29 yds for a 1ST down, J. Nash fumbled, forced by F. Wells, recovered by Cash Cheeks, Cash Cheeks returned for a TD 10–28
- Q2 0:37UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to Cash Cheeks for 13 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–21
- Q2 5:16UTEPEJ Colson Jr. run for 3 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–14
- Q2 12:05TEXAM. Arana III 43 yd FG GOOD10–7
- Q1 4:55TEXAA. Renfro Jr. run for 16 yds, for a TD (M. Arana III KICK)7–7
- Q1 12:32UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to K. Thomas for 83 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)0–7
Our model, right now
Where this stands
updatingMcCoy's passing
Cam'Ron McCoy is already 18‑for‑38 for 266 yards and three touchdowns, driving Texas Southern's early lead.
Texas Southern fourth down
Texas Southern's lone 4th‑down attempt was a punt on 4th & 4 at the 56, a decision our model says cost about 0.2 points.
UTEP has a perfect 100% success rate and 100% explosive rate, but its limited 12 pass attempts keep its offense modest so far.
The win-probability timeline fills in a few plays into the game.
- Our model prices this game live at UTEP −37.5 (100% UTEP).
- Against the pregame line (UTEP −27), UTEP covers in 98% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 60 vs the 53.5 line — the over hits 95%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- PassCam'Ron McCoy 11/17, 85 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAthean Renfro Jr. 10 CAR, 29 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Phipps 3 REC, 31 YDS
- PassEJ Colson Jr. 14/21, 239 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTavorus Jones 16 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKam Thomas 2 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Teams up 35 with 5 minutes left — like UTEP right now — went on to win 100% of the time across 309 comparable historical situations.
- Tulane vs NavyW 35–0
- Kansas State vs UT MartinW 41–6
- Kentucky vs Murray StateW 48–6
- Arizona vs Northern ArizonaW 38–3
- Maine vs Stony BrookW 56–28
FAQ
Who will win Texas Southern vs. UTEP?
Gridpex's model favors UTEP with a 93% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas Southern vs. UTEP?
The model projects UTEP by 25.2.
What time is Texas Southern vs. UTEP and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 9:00 PM ET on MW+, at Sun Bowl.
| TEXA | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 160 | Total yards | 397 |
| 85 | Passing yards | 239 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 10 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 14/21 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 12-92 | Penalties | 4-46 |
| 28:33 | Possession | 21:53 |
- Q4 9:40UTEPC. Arreola 35 yd FG GOOD10–45
- Q3 6:28UTEPT. Jones run for 33 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–42
- Q3 10:19UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to Car. Cheeks for 13 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–35
- Q3 12:04UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to J. Nash for 29 yds for a 1ST down, J. Nash fumbled, forced by F. Wells, recovered by Cash Cheeks, Cash Cheeks returned for a TD 10–28
- Q2 0:37UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to Cash Cheeks for 13 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–21
- Q2 5:16UTEPEJ Colson Jr. run for 3 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)10–14
- Q2 12:05TEXAM. Arana III 43 yd FG GOOD10–7
- Q1 4:55TEXAA. Renfro Jr. run for 16 yds, for a TD (M. Arana III KICK)7–7
- Q1 12:32UTEPEJ Colson Jr. pass to K. Thomas for 83 yds, for a TD (C. Arreola KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP -25.2 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →