Illinois State vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLITeam statsNIU
- Q4 1:53ILLIG. Roy pass to A. Herrera for 16 yds, for a TD (M. Cosentino KICK)28–24
- Q4 7:24NIUT. Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd, for a TD (JJ Schlenhardt KICK)21–24
- Q2 0:01NIUT. Dickens pass to D. Rogers for 2 yds, for a TD (JJ Schlenhardt KICK)21–17
- Q2 6:32NIUJJ Schlenhardt 40 yd FG GOOD21–10
- Q2 12:39NIUB. Pellant pass intercepted, A. Ellis return for 30 yds, for a TD (JJ Schlenhardt KICK)21–7
- Q2 14:52ILLIG. Roy pass to D. Lord for 6 yds, for a TD (M. Cosentino KICK)21–0
- Q1 6:27ILLIC. Kwiatkowski run for 14 yds, for a TD (M. Cosentino KICK)14–0
- Q1 12:41ILLIJ. Macon pass intercepted, for a TD7–0
How the model called it
- PassGage Roy 20/23, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- RushVictor Dawson 12 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecDylan Lord 8 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTaron Dickens 22/27, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTelly Johnson Jr. 22 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeAree Rogers 11 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILLI up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:05ILLI +57%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short right to #0 L.Bryant thrown to ISU30 PENALTY ISU Pass Interference 15 yards from ISU47 to ISU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q4 7:24NIU +44%
No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY ISU Offside declined
- Q1 11:23ILLI +18%
#36 J.Ference punt 33 yards to the ISU43
- Q1 6:27ILLI +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Kwiatkowski rush right for 14 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL U…
- Q4 7:17ILLI +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Glatz rush right for 2 yards gain to the ISU27 (#5 Y.Falke)
- Q3 11:50NIU +15%
#41 H.Futch punt 43 yards to the NIU27 #1 D.Rogers return 14 yards to the NIU41 (#22 N.Espinoza)
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois State vs. Northern Illinois?
Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILLI | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 308 |
| 153 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 101 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 9-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/27 | Comp/Att | 23/30 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-77 | Penalties | 9-85 |
| 31:16 | Possession | 28:44 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:09 NIU punt on 4th & 3 at ILLI 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- ILLIEnd Of Quarter2 plays · -16 yds · from ILLI 25 · Q4 0:20−0.5 EPA
- NIUInterception8 plays · 55 yds · from NIU 35 · Q4 1:53+3.8 EPA−85% WP
- ILLITouchdown11 plays · 75 yds · from ILLI 35 · Q4 7:24+3.4 EPA−11% WP
- NIUTouchdown8 plays · 78 yds · from NIU 22 · Q4 11:13+5.0 EPA+40% WP
- ILLIInterception6 plays · 42 yds · from ILLI 20 · Q4 14:01+3.3 EPA+2% WP
- NIUPunt3 plays · 7 yds · from NIU 44 · Q3 0:55−0.6 EPA−2% WP
- ILLIPunt3 plays · -5 yds · from ILLI 45 · Q3 2:40−2.9 EPA+1% WP
- NIUPunt3 plays · -5 yds · from NIU 22 · Q3 4:36−1.1 EPA−1% WP
- ILLIPunt7 plays · 29 yds · from ILLI 10 · Q3 8:28+0.1 EPA+2% WP
- NIUDowns7 plays · 49 yds · from NIU 41 · Q3 11:45−3.4 EPA−2% WP
- ILLIPunt5 plays · 4 yds · from ILLI 35 · Q3 14:55−1.3 EPA−21% WP
- NIUTouchdown13 plays · 65 yds · from NIU 35 · Q2 2:57+2.4 EPA−2% WP
- ILLIPunt6 plays · 7 yds · from ILLI 35 · Q2 6:32−1.2 EPA+2% WP
- NIUField Goal9 plays · 38 yds · from NIU 39 · Q2 11:06+0.7 EPA+5% WP
- Q4 1:53ILLIG. Roy pass to A. Herrera for 16 yds, for a TD (M. Cosentino KICK)28–24
- Q4 7:24NIUT. Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd, for a TD (JJ Schlenhardt KICK)21–24
- Q2 0:01NIUT. Dickens pass to D. Rogers for 2 yds, for a TD (JJ Schlenhardt KICK)21–17
- Q2 6:32NIUJJ Schlenhardt 40 yd FG GOOD21–10
- Q2 12:39NIUB. Pellant pass intercepted, A. Ellis return for 30 yds, for a TD (JJ Schlenhardt KICK)21–7
- Q2 14:52ILLIG. Roy pass to D. Lord for 6 yds, for a TD (M. Cosentino KICK)21–0
- Q1 6:27ILLIC. Kwiatkowski run for 14 yds, for a TD (M. Cosentino KICK)14–0
- Q1 12:41ILLIJ. Macon pass intercepted, for a TD7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -5.8 (63% to win) — 8.3 points clear of NIU's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →