Nebraska vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsMINN
- Q4 0:00MINNDragan Kesich 47 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q4 2:32MINNDaniel Jackson 13 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)10–10
- Q4 12:42NEBTristan Alvano 27 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q3 14:03NEBAlex Bullock 34 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Tristan Alvano Kick)7–3
- Q2 12:31MINNDragan Kesich 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJeff Sims 11/19, 114 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushJeff Sims 19 CAR, 91 YDS
- RecAlex Bullock 3 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 24/44, 196 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSean Tyler 10 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecDaniel Jackson 9 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEB up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,447 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:32MINN +65%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
- Q4 0:58NEB +48%
Jeff Sims pass intercepted
- Q4 0:58MINN +44%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 9 yds to the NEB 42
- Q3 14:03NEB +24%
Alex Bullock 34 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Tristan Alvano Kick)
- Q4 0:03MINN +20%
Sean Tyler run for 11 yds to the NEB 29
- Q4 4:53NEB +16%
Anthony Grant run for 9 yds to the MINN 47 Anthony Grant fumbled, recovered by MINN Aidan Gousby
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. Minnesota?
Nebraska 10, Minnesota 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| NEB | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 295 | Total yards | 251 |
| 114 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 181 | Rushing yards | 55 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 11/19 | Comp/Att | 24/44 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 29:18 | Possession | 30:42 |
Costliest call
Q4 2:32 MINN go for it on 4th & 10 at NEB 13. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.89 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00MINNDragan Kesich 47 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q4 2:32MINNDaniel Jackson 13 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)10–10
- Q4 12:42NEBTristan Alvano 27 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q3 14:03NEBAlex Bullock 34 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Tristan Alvano Kick)7–3
- Q2 12:31MINNDragan Kesich 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1672, NEB Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -8.4 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMinnesota leads 38–25–2 · Minnesota has won 6 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| NEB | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.0 (#45) | CORE overall | -5.6 (#88) |
| -3 / -8 | offense / defense | -6 / -0 |
| 1.52 | points / drive | 1.99 |
| 1.60 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -10 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →