UC Davis vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UC DTeam statsSMU
- Q4 3:35UC DRobert Meyer 33 Yd Field Goal 10–56
- Q4 9:01SMUAljour Miles II 3 Yd pass from Ty Hawkins (Brendan Baird Kick)7–56
- Q4 11:18UC DCoby Herman 4 Yd pass from Jackson Kollock (Robert Meyer Kick)7–49
- Q3 6:12SMUZack Turner 8 Yd pass from Ty Hawkins (Brendan Baird Kick)0–49
- Q2 0:24SMUYannick Smith 44 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:59SMUTheo Melin Ohrstrom 14 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:28SMURandy Pittman Jr. 2 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–28
- Q2 12:33SMUTheo Melin Ohrstrom 2 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:18SMUDerrick McFall 52 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:40SMUKendrick Raphael 5 Yd Run (Nick Reed Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UC D ahead, below = SMU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJackson Kollock 8/10, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMatteo Perez 3 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecSamuel Gbatu Jr. 5 REC, 60 YDS
- PassKevin Jennings 14/16, 337 YDS, 5 TD
- RushDerrick McFall 6 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecYamir Knight 3 REC, 62 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of UC Davis vs. SMU?
UC Davis 10, SMU 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| UC D | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 233 | Total yards | 547 |
| 171 | Passing yards | 454 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 93 |
| 12 | First downs | 20 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 27/32 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 14.2 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 32:40 | Possession | 27:20 |
- Q4 3:35UC DRobert Meyer 33 Yd Field Goal 10–56
- Q4 9:01SMUAljour Miles II 3 Yd pass from Ty Hawkins (Brendan Baird Kick)7–56
- Q4 11:18UC DCoby Herman 4 Yd pass from Jackson Kollock (Robert Meyer Kick)7–49
- Q3 6:12SMUZack Turner 8 Yd pass from Ty Hawkins (Brendan Baird Kick)0–49
- Q2 0:24SMUYannick Smith 44 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:59SMUTheo Melin Ohrstrom 14 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:28SMURandy Pittman Jr. 2 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–28
- Q2 12:33SMUTheo Melin Ohrstrom 2 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:18SMUDerrick McFall 52 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Nick Reed Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:40SMUKendrick Raphael 5 Yd Run (Nick Reed Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects SMU -36 (98% to win) — 3.5 points clear of SMU's market line of -32.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →