Gerald J. Ford StadiumACC Extra
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUC D 11% · SMU 89%
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
FAQ
Who will win UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU?
The model projects SMU by 16.5.
What time is UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM on ACC Extra, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this SMU at 89% to win, projecting SMU by 16.5.