Sacramento State vs. Fresno State: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
SAC gets the ball to start the 2nd half
Last play(00:43) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at FRES40, for 3 yards to the FRES42 (#31 K.Harris), out of bounds
SACTeam statsFRES
- Q2 1:28FRESB. Donelson run for 11 yds, for a TD (M. Watanabe KICK)0–29
- Q2 6:19FRESJ. Mandal run for 1 yd, for a TD (M. Watanabe KICK)0–22
- Q2 12:09FRESJ. Mandal pass to E. Avit for 73 yds, for a TD (J. Mandal pass to G. Correia GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q2 15:00FRESJ. Mandal pass to R. Luke for 18 yds, for a TD (M. Watanabe KICK)0–7
Our model, right now
What the numbers say
- SAC is playing behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FRES is not facing the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 4.3
- FRES is starting drives roughly 13 yards closer than SAC — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 33 vs own 20
- SAC is winning this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, is the story against FRES. -0.08 vs -0.40 EPA/play
- Our model prices this game live at FRES −31.1 (100% FRES).
- Against the pregame line (FRES −18.5), FRES covers in 87% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 51 vs the 43.5 line — the over hits 79%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- 4&7(00:31) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES32, TURNOVER ON DOWNS+1.33
- 3&7(00:37) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES25 QB hurried by #6 J.Jacks−1.03
- 2&10(00:43) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at FRES40, for 3 yards to the FRES42 (#31 K.Harris), out of bounds−0.39
- 1&10Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush right for 0 yards to the FRES45, out of bounds at FRES45−1.00
- 1&10Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at FRES45, for 14 yards to the FRES45 (#4 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWN+1.18
- 2&2Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SACST41 (#9 M.Xepera), 1ST DOWN+0.51
- 1&10Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:21
- 1&10Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #82 K.Koontz caught at SACST30, for 8 yards to the SACST33 (#35 T.Khajavi)+0.91
- PassJackson Sharman 10/17, 75 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCincere Rhaney 3 CAR, 11 YDS
- RecOnterrio Smith Jr. 2 REC, 23 YDS
- PassJayden Mandal 16/18, 264 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBryson Donelson 9 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEzekiel Avit 2 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
Teams up 29 with 30 minutes left — like Fresno State right now — went on to win 98% of the time across 373 comparable historical situations.
- Texas State vs Jackson StateW 77–34
- Butler vs Hanover CollegeW 53–0
- Oklahoma vs TCUW 69–45
- UCF vs ArizonaW 56–12
- Eastern Washington vs Cal PolyW 48–16
- Q2 15:00FRES +17%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at SACST00, for 18 yards to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:09FRES +14%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete deep right to #0 E.Avit caught at SACST40, for 73 yards to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #86 G.Correia pass attempt Successful
FAQ
Who will win Sacramento State vs. Fresno State?
Gridpex's model favors Fresno State with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sacramento State vs. Fresno State?
The model projects Fresno State by 5.7.
What time is Sacramento State vs. Fresno State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET on CBSSN, at Valley Children's Stadium.
| SAC | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 93 | Total yards | 326 |
| 75 | Passing yards | 264 |
| 18 | Rushing yards | 62 |
| 6 | First downs | 14 |
| 1-6 | 3rd down | 3-5 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 10/17 | Comp/Att | 16/18 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 14.7 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 11:50 | Possession | 17:42 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:36 SAC punt on 4th & 1 at SAC 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
- SACDowns7 plays · 33 yds · from SAC 35 · Q2 1:28+1.5 EPA
- FRESTouchdown8 plays · 63 yds · from FRES 37 · Q2 5:15−0.8 EPA+2% WP
- SACInterception3 plays · 12 yds · from SAC 35 · Q2 6:19+3.0 EPA
- FRESTouchdown8 plays · 58 yds · from FRES 42 · Q2 10:35+2.1 EPA+6% WP
- SACPunt3 plays · -4 yds · from SAC 35 · Q2 11:58−1.3 EPA
- FRESTouchdown1 plays · 73 yds · from FRES 27 · Q2 12:09+13% WP
- SACPunt7 plays · 9 yds · from SAC 35 · Q2 14:53+2.0 EPA
- FRESTouchdown5 plays · 54 yds · from FRES 46 · Q1 1:47+1.2 EPA+17% WP
- SACPunt5 plays · 9 yds · from SAC 3 · Q1 4:35−0.4 EPA
- FRESPunt6 plays · 44 yds · from FRES 11 · Q1 7:48+0.9 EPA
- SACPunt5 plays · 17 yds · from SAC 16 · Q1 10:27+0.0 EPA
- FRESDowns8 plays · 49 yds · from FRES 35 · Q1 15:00−1.3 EPA
- 4&7(00:31) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES32, TURNOVER ON DOWNS+1.33
- 3&7(00:37) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES25 QB hurried by #6 J.Jacks−1.03
- 2&10(00:43) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at FRES40, for 3 yards to the FRES42 (#31 K.Harris), out of bounds−0.39
- 1&10Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush right for 0 yards to the FRES45, out of bounds at FRES45−1.00
- 1&10Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at FRES45, for 14 yards to the FRES45 (#4 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWN+1.18
- 2&2Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SACST41 (#9 M.Xepera), 1ST DOWN+0.51
- 1&10Timeout Fresno State, clock 01:21
- 1&10Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #82 K.Koontz caught at SACST30, for 8 yards to the SACST33 (#35 T.Khajavi)+0.91
- Q2 1:28FRESB. Donelson run for 11 yds, for a TD (M. Watanabe KICK)0–29
- Q2 6:19FRESJ. Mandal run for 1 yd, for a TD (M. Watanabe KICK)0–22
- Q2 12:09FRESJ. Mandal pass to E. Avit for 73 yds, for a TD (J. Mandal pass to G. Correia GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q2 15:00FRESJ. Mandal pass to R. Luke for 18 yds, for a TD (M. Watanabe KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1449, SAC Elo 1476 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -5.7 (63% to win) — 12.8 points clear of SAC's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SAC | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.0 (#113) | CORE overall | -11.3 (#115) |
| -9 / +2 | offense / defense | -8 / +4 |
| 0.83 | points / drive | -0.44 |
| 1.50 | allowed / drive | 3.89 |
| 50% | three-and-outs | 33% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →