Gardner-Webb vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GARDTeam statsLIB
- Q4 2:34LIBDarius Copeland 54 Yd pass from Jaylen Henderson (Chase Reeves Kick)23–24
- Q3 2:34GARDTyler Simpson 27 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q2 0:00LIBChase Reeves 30 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 5:44GARDRandy Young 65 Yd Run (Andrew Bontekoe Kick)20–14
- Q2 9:11GARDSabin McLaughlin 35 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Simpson Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:12GARDTyler Simpson 35 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 8:48LIBJaylon Coleman 20 Yd Run (Chase Reeves Kick)3–14
- Q1 11:07LIBMakai Jackson 65 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Chase Reeves Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:54GARDTyler Simpson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = GARD ahead, below = LIB ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassCole Pennington 16/38, 186 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRandy Young 4 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKory Jones 3 REC, 51 YDS
- PassDeshawn Purdie 6/17, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- RushPeyton Jones 13 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecMakai Jackson 2 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Gardner-Webb vs. Liberty?
Gardner-Webb 23, Liberty 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
| GARD | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 304 | Total yards | 379 |
| 186 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 193 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 16/38 | Comp/Att | 8/21 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-27 | Penalties | 11-96 |
| 30:52 | Possession | 29:08 |
- Q4 2:34LIBDarius Copeland 54 Yd pass from Jaylen Henderson (Chase Reeves Kick)23–24
- Q3 2:34GARDTyler Simpson 27 Yd Field Goal 23–17
- Q2 0:00LIBChase Reeves 30 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 5:44GARDRandy Young 65 Yd Run (Andrew Bontekoe Kick)20–14
- Q2 9:11GARDSabin McLaughlin 35 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Simpson Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:12GARDTyler Simpson 35 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 8:48LIBJaylon Coleman 20 Yd Run (Chase Reeves Kick)3–14
- Q1 11:07LIBMakai Jackson 65 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Chase Reeves Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:54GARDTyler Simpson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -28.3 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →