Prairie View A&M vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PRAITeam statsBAY
- Q4 8:42BAYR. Armstrong 22 yd FG GOOD3–44
- Q3 1:39BAYJ. McGowan run for 13 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–41
- Q2 4:10BAYR. Armstrong 45 yd FG GOOD3–34
- Q2 12:55BAYN. Bennett run for 17 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–31
- Q2 13:51BAYN. Bennett pass to D. Miller for 22 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–24
- Q1 0:59BAYN. Bennett pass to J. McGowan for 33 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–17
- Q1 4:22BAYC. Knighten run for 5 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–10
- Q1 8:20BAYR. Armstrong 46 yd FG GOOD3–3
- Q1 10:58PRAIE. Eddins 25 yd FG GOOD3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PRAI kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. -0.8 pts per trip vs 4.1
- BAY won this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against PRAI. +0.40 vs -0.22 EPA/play
- PassTevin Carter 14/25, 74 YDS
- RushZayvion Turner-Knox 4 CAR, 12 YDS
- RecKy'Yon Harris 3 REC, 38 YDS
- PassNate Bennett 23/35, 301 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDawson Pendergrass 15 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecGavin Freeman 10 REC, 104 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Prairie View A&M vs. Baylor?
Prairie View A&M 3, Baylor 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BAY) was correct.
| PRAI | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Total yards | 552 |
| 74 | Passing yards | 320 |
| 36 | Rushing yards | 232 |
| 7 | First downs | 32 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/27 | Comp/Att | 25/42 |
| 2.7 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-87 | Penalties | 9-85 |
| 25:38 | Possession | 33:52 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:59 PRAI punt on 4th & 3 at BAY 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.20 points.
- BAYEnd Of Quarter5 plays · 47 yds · from BAY 20 · Q4 2:45+1.0 EPA
- PRAIPunt6 plays · 12 yds · from PRAI 44 · Q4 2:51−5.1 EPA
- BAYInterception4 plays · 1 yds · from BAY 43 · Q4 6:50+2.1 EPA
- PRAIPunt3 plays · 4 yds · from PRAI 35 · Q4 8:35−1.1 EPA
- BAYField Goal14 plays · 63 yds · from BAY 32 · Q4 14:02+1.0 EPA
- PRAIPunt4 plays · 11 yds · from PRAI 35 · Q3 1:39−0.3 EPA
- BAYTouchdown11 plays · 80 yds · from BAY 20 · Q3 6:47+6.4 EPA
- PRAIPunt3 plays · 7 yds · from BAY 45 · Q3 6:59−1.6 EPA
- BAYInterception4 plays · 3 yds · from BAY 39 · Q3 10:11+3.5 EPA
- PRAIPunt3 plays · 9 yds · from PRAI 20 · Q3 12:15−0.6 EPA
- BAYPunt7 plays · 16 yds · from BAY 35 · Q3 14:53−1.4 EPA
- BAYMissed FG9 plays · 59 yds · from BAY 21 · Q2 1:01+1.0 EPA
- PRAIPunt6 plays · 17 yds · from PRAI 35 · Q2 4:10−0.6 EPA
- BAYField Goal11 plays · 72 yds · from BAY 2 · Q2 7:54+3.0 EPA
- Q4 8:42BAYR. Armstrong 22 yd FG GOOD3–44
- Q3 1:39BAYJ. McGowan run for 13 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–41
- Q2 4:10BAYR. Armstrong 45 yd FG GOOD3–34
- Q2 12:55BAYN. Bennett run for 17 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–31
- Q2 13:51BAYN. Bennett pass to D. Miller for 22 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–24
- Q1 0:59BAYN. Bennett pass to J. McGowan for 33 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–17
- Q1 4:22BAYC. Knighten run for 5 yds, for a TD (R. Armstrong KICK)3–10
- Q1 8:20BAYR. Armstrong 46 yd FG GOOD3–3
- Q1 10:58PRAIE. Eddins 25 yd FG GOOD3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -41.3 (99% to win) — 3.8 points clear of BAY's market line of -37.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →