Alabama vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsUK
- Q4 4:11ALATrae'shawn Brown 4 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)45–17
- Q4 9:08ALARico Scott 5 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick)38–17
- Q3 0:24ALADaniel Hill 3 Yd Run (Keelon Russell Pass to Lotzeir Brooks for Two-Point Conversion)31–17
- Q3 3:00ALAEJ Crowell 3 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)23–17
- Q3 7:10ALAConor Talty 34 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q2 0:00UKAdam Zouagui 39 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 2:09ALAConor Talty 41 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 9:27ALAConor Talty 25 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 14:56UKHenry Boyer 20 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:35ALALuke Metz 34 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:11UKMi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 2 Yd Interception Return (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Alabama owns the most lopsided unit edge on the field in short yardage and power, and Kentucky's counter is the deep ball.
The last time these programs met, in 2023 at Kentucky, Alabama won 49-21, and the mechanism that pulled that game apart is the same one shaping a 30-22 projection now. Kentucky's short-yardage and power game against Alabama's front grades out at -1.79 sigma, the most lopsided unit matchup on the field. Nearly everything Kentucky wants to do on first and second down runs directly into it.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ALA ahead, below = UK ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassKeelon Russell 16/23, 188 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDaniel Hill 18 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLotzeir Brooks 5 REC, 54 YDS
- PassKenny Minchey 18/31, 146 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJason Patterson 11 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecWillie Rodriguez 8 REC, 49 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Kentucky?
Alabama 45, Kentucky 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| ALA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 343 | Total yards | 209 |
| 188 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 155 | Rushing yards | 63 |
| 21 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 1-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 18/32 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-45 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 32:14 | Possession | 27:46 |
- Q4 4:11ALATrae'shawn Brown 4 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)45–17
- Q4 9:08ALARico Scott 5 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Conor Talty Kick)38–17
- Q3 0:24ALADaniel Hill 3 Yd Run (Keelon Russell Pass to Lotzeir Brooks for Two-Point Conversion)31–17
- Q3 3:00ALAEJ Crowell 3 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)23–17
- Q3 7:10ALAConor Talty 34 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q2 0:00UKAdam Zouagui 39 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 2:09ALAConor Talty 41 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 9:27ALAConor Talty 25 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 14:56UKHenry Boyer 20 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:35ALALuke Metz 34 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:11UKMi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 2 Yd Interception Return (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1476, ALA Elo 1823 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +9.4 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 39–2–1 · Alabama has won 8 straight · 19% have been one-possession games
| ALA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +24.5 (#8) | CORE overall | +5.1 (#51) |
| +9 / -15 | offense / defense | -1 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Kentucky can't run on Alabama, so it must throw
Alabama owns the most lopsided unit edge on the field in short yardage and power, and Kentucky's counter is the deep ball.
Alabama wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Alabama, the more likely Alabama wins.
The pile Kentucky can't move
Alabama's run defense sits 2nd of 185 by what it gives up, and the run-game edge of -1.64 sigma echoes the power number rather than softening it. Jason Patterson projects for 11 to 31 rushing yards, a band with no version of a game-controlling afternoon inside it.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Alabama are battles it should win; toward Kentucky are ones Kentucky wins.
The downstream cost outweighs the lost yardage. An offense that can't convert third-and-two on the ground hands the defense known passing downs and no reason to respect play-action. Kentucky's scoring drives last week were built on staying ahead of the sticks. Alabama's front turns second-and-nine into the defining down of the night.
Two openers that looked alike
Both teams scored on 63.6% of eleven drives a week ago, and both averaged roughly the same field position gain per possession, 44.3 yards for Alabama against East Carolina and 43.4 for Kentucky against Youngstown State. The separation shows up in the failures. Alabama went three-and-out on 18.2% of its drives, Kentucky on 27.3%. Same output, different floor.
That gap scales into this game. A quarter of Kentucky's possessions ended before the offense reached third-and-manageable, and that was against Youngstown State. When the front is 2nd of 185 against the run, the dead-drive share tends to rise rather than shrink, and 45 points becomes a much smaller expectation.
What carried over from 2023
The shape of the two programs carried forward. Alabama went 11-4 last season and scored 29.5 per game, Kentucky went 5-7 and scored 23.0. The head-to-head and the résumé point the same direction, which is why the projected margin is eight rather than the twenty-eight from 2023.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Alabama are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Alabama's secondary is the crack in the favorite
Alabama grades ordinary over the top. Its pass defense ranks 65th of 185 by what it allows, the explosive-passing matchup tilts to Kentucky at -1.37 sigma, and the overall big-play edge goes to Kentucky at +1.06 sigma. Kentucky's scoring is likely to arrive in chunks rather than in the drives Alabama's front is built to strangle.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Alabama's defense is one of the best in the country — better than 100% of FBS defenses.
DJ Miller projects 18 to 35 receiving yards with a 26% chance of a touchdown, Willie Rodriguez 15 to 36. Neither range describes a receiver who gets there on volume. Kentucky's explosive edge has to convert into two or three plays worth a drive apiece, because the target economy isn't going to add up in ten-yard increments.
Alabama is projected to grind, not to gallop
Alabama holds the passing-game edge at +1.36 sigma, and the projected production reads methodical. Austin Mack projects 39 to 82 passing yards with a 41% chance of a touchdown, and the receiving bands behind him are modest across the board: Lotzeir Brooks 18 to 59, Kevin Riley 13 to 40, Daniel Hill 11 to 36. This is a distribution offense, not a volume passing attack.
The ground game meets resistance too. AK Dear projects 18 to 50 rushing yards with a 52% touchdown chance against a Kentucky run defense that sits 32nd of 185, good enough to make Alabama earn its scoring drives. That is why the favorite lands near 30 rather than near the 48 it hung last week, and why the number is beatable.
Kentucky's cover Case is stronger than its win Case
Alabama covers 10.2 in only 43% of projected outcomes. A favorite that lands about two points short of the number needs a blowout stack of events, while Kentucky needs clock control. That is the simpler ask. Our projection gives a one-score finish a little better than a one-in-three chance, and Kentucky's outright win probability sits at 31%.
The upset path is narrow but coherent. Kentucky cannot out-rush this front, so it has to hit the 65th-of-185 secondary early enough that Alabama's defense can't sit on obvious passing downs, then keep the possession count low so a hot stretch matters. Miller and Rodriguez do not have to reach big numbers. They have to reach them in two plays instead of eight.
Alabama wins this by making the game boring
Alabama's assignment is holding Kentucky's three-and-out rate near last week's 27.3% or worse, then letting Dear's touchdown equity do the scoring work. Kentucky's is two chunk throws. Alabama is the better team by roughly eight points, and the difference between winning and covering lives in the passing lanes.
Where our projection and the betting line differ — and by how much.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →