Southern Miss vs. Auburn: Live Score, Odds & Spread

Southern Miss

Auburn

Q4 2:002nd & 4at USM 27

TV SEC NetworkJordan-Hare StadiumCloudy · 80°F

	1	2	3	4	T
USM	0	8	0	0	8
AUB	17	10	16	0	43

2020

USM

AUB

USM2nd & 4at USM 27·line to gainAUB

AUB 5 plays, 13 yds · from AUB 32

Last play(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USM27 (#6 A.Martin)

USMTeam statsAUB

221Total yards592

171Pass267

50Rush325

12First downs30

5-133rd down6-14

2Turnovers1

27:11Possession30:13

Q3 0:09AUBO. Mabson II run for 2 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–43
Q3 3:26AUBE. Hampton sacked by C. Sigler for -3 yds for a SAFETY8–36
Q3 10:00AUBC. Neptune pass to B. Brown for 5 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–34
Q2 0:03AUBA. McPherson 55 yd FG GOOD8–27
Q2 0:24USME. Hampton pass to S. Robinson for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Himes pass to J. Beck Jr. GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)8–24
Q2 6:40AUBB. Brown pass to D. Spencer for 8 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–24
Q1 1:31AUBA. McPherson 47 yd FG GOOD0–17
Q1 3:45AUBB. Brown pass to J. Echols for 22 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–14
Q1 14:50AUBE. Hampton pass intercepted, A. Jordan Jr. return for 29 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–7

Our model, right now

Win probability

AUB 100%

ESPN AUB 100%

Line, re-priced

AUB −37

market AUB −33

Projected final

USM 8 – 45 AUB

23.5s / play

Covers the number

AUB 91%

vs AUB −33

What the numbers say

AUB is winning this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, is the story against USM. +0.48 vs -0.16 EPA/play
USM keeps reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives are working, the finishes are not. -0.2 pts per trip vs 3.8
AUB is starting drives roughly 9 yards closer than USM — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 29 vs own 20

Live · model vs market

100%

situation-adjusted

Exchange

100%

last traded

ESPN

100%

their model

CFBD

98%

their model

Gap vs market

+0.4

points, toward Auburn

History100%±1pts· Auburn won 162 of 162 comparable games

Matched within 2 min, 3 pts of the same margin, 20 yds of the same field position, on 2nd. Counted once per game, never per play. It knows the situation but not the teams — no spread, no ratings — so it complements the numbers above rather than judging them.

line 100%this snap +0.0100%· +4.0 expected points from this spot

We and the market are reading this game the same way.

How the line movedBovada · 25 readings · Sep 7–Sep 12

Bovada's posted spread on Auburn, at every moment we recorded it. AUB went from −30 to −33 — 3.0 points toward AUB.

−30−31.8−33.5

Sep 7Sep 9Sep 11Sep 12

y: Bovada spread on AUB, pointsx: date recorded

Bovadaclosed −33

AUB favored ↑50%USM favored ↓

GridpexAUB 100% ESPN AUB 100%CFBD AUB 98%

Pregame line

AUB −33

Pregame total

57.0

Model live line

AUB −37

Projected total

Covers the pregame spread (AUB −33)USM 9% · AUB 91%

Total goes over 57.0Under 96% · Over 4%

DraftKings, liveAUB −32.50.5 toward USMtotal 56.5

Our model prices this game live at AUB −37.0 (100% AUB).
Against the pregame line (AUB −33), AUB covers in 91% of finishes from this state.
Scoring pace projects a final total of 53 vs the 57 line — the under hits 96%.

Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.

1&10(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USM27 (#6 A.Martin)+0.22
2&6(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush left for 7 yards gain to the USM33 (#6 A.Martin), 1ST DOWN+0.62
1&20(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short left to #85 H.Herring caught at Auburn45, for 14 yards to the USM40 (#34 M.Williams Jr.)+2.03
1&10(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush right for 19 yards gain to the USM25 (#19 M.Murphy) PENALTY Auburn Holding (#77 W.Zierer) 10 yards from USM44 to Auburn46. NO PLAY
2&6(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USM44 (#24 M.Robinson III), 1ST DOWN+1.02
1&10(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Auburn49 (#90 J.Stegall)−0.16

Southern Miss

PassEthan Hampton 18/27, 146 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
RushSteven Robinson 15 CAR, 51 YDS
RecMario Sanders 3 REC, 58 YDS

Auburn

PassByrum Brown 17/28, 223 YDS, 2 TD
RushOmar Mabson II 15 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
RecJeremiah Koger 2 REC, 57 YDS

23.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

146

Snaps left

Drives left

0 ea.

Projected finalUSM 8 – 45 AUB

100%

won from here

Teams up 35 with 2 minutes left — like Auburn right now — went on to win 100% of the time across 269 comparable historical situations.

Oregon vs Oregon StateW 49–14
Ohio State vs MarshallW 49–14
Tulane vs South FloridaW 45–10
Clemson vs Wake ForestW 49–14
Ohio State vs Michigan StateW 38–3

Q1 14:50AUB +11%
Shotgun #5 E.Hampton pass intercepted by #22 A.Jordan Jr. at USM29 QB hurried by #35 D.Walker #22 A.Jordan Jr. return 29 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN
Q1 3:45AUB +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass complete short middle to #81 J.Echols caught at USM05, for 22 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN

FAQ

Who will win Southern Miss vs. Auburn?

Gridpex's model favors Auburn with a 78% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for Southern Miss vs. Auburn?

The model projects Auburn by 12.6.

What time is Southern Miss vs. Auburn and what channel is it on?

Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM ET on SEC Network, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

USM

AUB

0.02

EPA / play

0.28

0.12

EPA / pass

-0.03

-0.16

EPA / rush

0.48

33%

Success rate

50%

0.51

Explosiveness

0.76

-0.2

Pts / scoring opp

3.8

Scoring opps

Avg start (own yd)

Momentum — net EPA by quarter

Q1: AUB +2.0Q2: AUB +3.8Q3: AUB +10.3Q4: AUB +3.8Last 10: AUB +3.2

USM

AUB

40%

Early-down success

56%

42%

Pass success

47%

29%

Rush success

63%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

10%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

64%

Pass rate

41%

6.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.9

USM

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

AUB

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

87 scrimmage snaps

USM		AUB
221	Total yards	592
171	Passing yards	267
50	Rushing yards	325
12	First downs	30
5-13	3rd down	6-14
0-2	4th down	4-5
22/33	Comp/Att	20/33
5.2	Yards per pass	8.1
2.0	Yards per rush	6.8
2	Turnovers	1
11-85	Penalties	10-73
27:11	Possession	30:13

AUBLIVE5 plays · 28 yds · from AUB 45 · Q4+3.7 EPA
USMDowns12 plays · 51 yds · from USM 4 · Q4 11:59+2.7 EPA
AUBFumble8 plays · 67 yds · from AUB 29 · Q4 14:07+2.7 EPA
USMPunt3 plays · 0 yds · from USM 35 · Q3 0:09−1.2 EPA
AUBTouchdown10 plays · 64 yds · from AUB 20 · Q3 3:18+4.5 EPA
USMSafety2 plays · -4 yds · from USM 4 · Q3 3:56−0.3 EPA
AUBFumble13 plays · 68 yds · from AUB 28 · Q3 8:26+0.0 EPA
USMPunt3 plays · 8 yds · from USM 35 · Q3 9:56−0.8 EPA
AUBTouchdown12 plays · 65 yds · from AUB 35 · Q3 14:53+3.5 EPA
+1% WP
AUBField Goal4 plays · 33 yds · from AUB 35 · Q2 0:19+2.4 EPA
+1% WP
USMTouchdown14 plays · 74 yds · from USM 35 · Q2 6:40+2.6 EPA
+2% WP
AUBTouchdown8 plays · 85 yds · from AUB 15 · Q2 9:40+2.3 EPA
+2% WP
USMPunt3 plays · 3 yds · from USM 20 · Q2 11:44−0.9 EPA
AUBPunt5 plays · 13 yds · from AUB 32 · Q2 13:57−1.3 EPA

1&10(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USM27 (#6 A.Martin)+0.22
2&6(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush left for 7 yards gain to the USM33 (#6 A.Martin), 1ST DOWN+0.62
1&20(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Ti'a pass complete short left to #85 H.Herring caught at Auburn45, for 14 yards to the USM40 (#34 M.Williams Jr.)+2.03
1&10(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush right for 19 yards gain to the USM25 (#19 M.Murphy) PENALTY Auburn Holding (#77 W.Zierer) 10 yards from USM44 to Auburn46. NO PLAY
2&6(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USM44 (#24 M.Robinson III), 1ST DOWN+1.02
1&10(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 O.Mabson II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Auburn49 (#90 J.Stegall)−0.16

Q3 0:09AUBO. Mabson II run for 2 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–43
Q3 3:26AUBE. Hampton sacked by C. Sigler for -3 yds for a SAFETY8–36
Q3 10:00AUBC. Neptune pass to B. Brown for 5 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–34
Q2 0:03AUBA. McPherson 55 yd FG GOOD8–27
Q2 0:24USME. Hampton pass to S. Robinson for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Himes pass to J. Beck Jr. GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)8–24
Q2 6:40AUBB. Brown pass to D. Spencer for 8 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–24
Q1 1:31AUBA. McPherson 47 yd FG GOOD0–17
Q1 3:45AUBB. Brown pass to J. Echols for 22 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–14
Q1 14:50AUBE. Hampton pass intercepted, A. Jordan Jr. return for 29 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–7

Live prediction-market data for this game, straight from the exchange's public feed. The distribution is every final margin the market will price and how likely it thinks each one is; the order book is the money actually resting behind today's price; the tape is what has really traded; and price history is how the number got where it is. Our live in-game model is drawn on the same axes — not the pregame projection, which the scoreboard has already overtaken.

Live · model vs market

100%

situation-adjusted

Exchange

100%

last traded

ESPN

100%

their model

CFBD

98%

their model

Gap vs market

+0.4

points, toward Auburn

History100%±1pts· Auburn won 162 of 162 comparable games

line 100%this snap +0.0100%· +4.0 expected points from this spot

We and the market are reading this game the same way.

Every final score the market is pricing

96% of outcomes priced

A spread is one number; this is the whole picture behind it. Each bar is a possible final margin and how likely the exchange thinks it is, with our model's curve over the same buckets — so where the two disagree is visible rather than asserted.

Taller = the market thinks it more likely

Southern MisswinwinAuburn

market our modelmarket 35.0 pts · model 37.0 pts

Final margin in points — positive means Auburn win by that much, negative Southern Miss. The dashed line is where the market's middle sits, the solid one ours.

Price history

98 hours · 170.7k contracts traded

What the exchange has been charging for “Auburn wins”, hour by hour. The shaded band is the gap between what buyers and sellers were asking; the dashed line is our model, held flat because the rating only moves when it is rebuilt. If the market drifts toward the dashed line, it came to us.

exchange all venuesopened 97% → now 99%▲ 2.0 pts

Order book

one-sided

Auburn to win· cents on the dollar

Unfilled offers on this market — a 60¢ contract pays $1 if they win. The left column is money waiting to buy, the right money waiting to sell; the gap between the two top rows is how far apart buyers and sellers are, and a narrow gap on deep size is a price to take seriously.

BuyingSelling

99¢508.3k

98¢758

97¢956

96¢38

95¢104

94¢22.9k

93¢8.5k

92¢17.2k

566.9k contracts resting to buy0 to sell

Trade tape

last 14 trades

Every recent trade: the time, the price paid, and how many contracts. Green means the buyer was the one who moved to get filled, red the seller — a run of one colour is one side pushing the price.

12:10 AM99¢×1seller

11:55 PM99¢×1seller

11:54 PM99¢×20seller

11:49 PM99¢×25seller

11:35 PM99¢×10seller

11:22 PM99¢×1seller

11:21 PM99¢×1seller

11:20 PM99¢×2seller

11:12 PM99¢×9seller

11:11 PM99¢×5seller

11:10 PM99¢×187seller

11:02 PM99¢×2seller

11:00 PM99¢×6seller

10:59 PM99¢×276seller

How many points, in total

99% of outcomes priced

The same picture for the combined score — every total the exchange is pricing and how likely it thinks each one is.

Taller = the market thinks it more likely

market our projectionmarket 51.3 pts · model — pts

Combined points scored by both teams. The dashed line is where the market's middle sits, the solid one ours.

Halves & overtime

1 of 1 quoting

Goes to overtime1%1¢ · 1.6k

Width in cents, then contracts traded. A market quoting too wide to be a price reads not quoting rather than showing a number — an untouched market still produces one, and it is an artefact rather than a price. Normal before kickoff; the thing to watch once a game is under way. A half can end level, so the tie is priced as a real outcome.

Exchange data is public market information; prices only. Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers. Our projection is shown for comparison and is not a recommendation — see the desk for when we consider a gap credible, and methodology for how the projection is built.

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

AUB 1613

USM 1350

Projected spread

AUB -12.6

incl. home edge

Model pick

AUB

78% to win

Market spread

AUB -33

sportsbook line

Model vs market

USM

20.4 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

78%

AUB (no market)

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1613, USM Elo 1350 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -12.6 (78% to win) — 20.4 points clear of USM's market line of -33. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2026

nationally ranked

USM2026 season · national rank shownAUB

543.014th

Total yards / game

389.080th

6.554th

Yards / play

5.1108th

226.071st

Passing yards / game

259.055th

317.07th

Rushing yards / game

130.094th

41.7%75th

3rd down %

55.6%20th

223.032nd

Yards allowed / game

436.0117th

35.7%73rd

3rd down % allowed

31.8%56th

+49th

Turnover margin

-189th

4.019th

Penalties / game

6.052nd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series23 meetings since 1946

Auburn leads 18–5 · Auburn has won 4 straight · 39% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2026

USM		AUB
-0.1 (#70)	CORE overall	+3.3 (#59)
+0 / +0	offense / defense	-3 / -6

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Live thread

Our coverage of this game

Preview: Southern Miss's passing game is Auburn's biggest problem →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Southern Miss vs. Auburn: Live Score & Win Probability

USMTeam statsAUB

Our model, right now

What the numbers say

Live · model vs market

Who will win Southern Miss vs. Auburn?

What's the predicted spread for Southern Miss vs. Auburn?

What time is Southern Miss vs. Auburn and what channel is it on?

Live · model vs market

Every final score the market is pricing

Price history

Order book

Trade tape

How many points, in total

Halves & overtime

Key matchups

Live · model vs market

Live · model vs market

Every final score the market is pricing

Price history

Order book

Trade tape

How many points, in total

Halves & overtime