Montana State vs. Nevada: Live Score, Odds & Spread

Montana State

Nevada

Q2 0:153rd & 11at MONT 11

TV CW | The CW Network | ESPN UnlmtdMackay StadiumFair · 70°F · wind 12 mph

	1	2	T
MONT	10	7	17
NEV	0	0	0

2020

MONT

NEV

MONT3rd & 11at MONT 11NEV

Goal to go

MONT gets the ball to start the 2nd half

Last playTimeout Nevada, clock 00:20

MONTTeam statsNEV

228Total yards159

159Pass51

69Rush108

14First downs11

4-73rd down0-4

0Turnovers1

15:43Possession14:02

Q2 5:39MONTA. Jones run for 6 yds, for a TD (M. Sansted KICK)17–0
Q1 1:35MONTM. Sansted 45 yd FG GOOD10–0
Q1 12:05MONTJ. Lamson pass to D. Steel for 24 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (M. Sansted KICK)7–0

Our model, right now

Win probability

MONT 83%

ESPN MONT 86%

Line, re-priced

MONT −10.7

market MONT −5.5

Projected final

MONT 25 – 14 NEV

23.7s / play

Covers the number

MONT 68%

vs MONT −5.5

What the numbers say

MONT is playing behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEV is not facing the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 7.2
MONT is winning this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, is the story against NEV. +0.52 vs -0.12 EPA/play
NEV keeps reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives are working, the finishes are not. 0.0 pts per trip vs 3.4

Where this stands

updating

A big swing and efficiency give Montana State the edge

Lamson's swing
Justin Lamson’s 24‑yard pass to Dane Steel on the opening drive swings win chance up 16 points, turning a tie into a 7‑0 lead.
Montana State runs at a 91.7% success rate and 0.69 EPA per pass, while Nevada is only 50% and 0.31 EPA, widening the gap.
Nevada fourth-down
Nevada’s lone fourth‑down attempt is successful, costing no points, but it hasn’t changed the 7‑0 deficit.
Live win probability
Despite being a 5.5‑point favorite, the live model now gives Nevada a 56.2% chance to win, reflecting the early shift.

Live · model vs market

16%

line model

Exchange

10%

last traded

ESPN

14%

their model

CFBD

13%

their model

Gap vs market

+6.2

points, toward Nevada

Widest spread of opinion here is 6 points, and the outlier is the exchange.

We are 6.2 points higher on Nevada than the market. That is a disagreement, not an edge. No down-and-distance in the feed right now, so this compares the market against our line model — which sees score, clock and possession, but not field position. On a goal-line snap the market knows things we don't.

How the line movedDraftKings · 15 readings · Sep 8–Sep 13

DraftKings's posted spread on Nevada, at every moment we recorded it. The line has not moved: NEV +4.5 throughout.

+4.5+4+3.5

Sep 8Sep 10Sep 11Sep 13

y: DraftKings spread on NEV, pointsx: date recorded

DraftKingsclosed +4.5

NEV favored ↑50%MONT favored ↓

GridpexMONT 83% ESPN MONT 86%CFBD MONT 87%

Pregame line

MONT −5.5

Pregame total

51.5

Model live line

MONT −10.7

Projected total

Covers the pregame spread (MONT −5.5)MONT 68% · NEV 32%

Total goes over 51.5Under 82% · Over 18%

DraftKings, liveMONT −4.51.0 toward NEVtotal 51.5

Our model prices this game live at MONT −10.7 (17% MONT).
Against the pregame line (MONT −5.5), MONT covers in 68% of finishes from this state.
Scoring pace projects a final total of 43 vs the 51.5 line — the under hits 82%.

Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.

2&11(00:20) Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short right to #5 D.Cheers thrown to MSU00−0.30
1&8Timeout Nevada, clock 00:20
1&8(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short left to #11 D.Morgan caught at MSU11, for 3 yards loss to the MSU11 (#2 T.Uluilakepa)−0.54
1&10(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short right to #11 D.Morgan caught at MSU22, for 14 yards to the MSU08 (#2 T.Uluilakepa; #91 S.Brock), 1ST DOWN+0.33
3&10(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short left to #9 M.Brown thrown to MSU26 PENALTY MSU Roughing The Passer (#58 D.Solano) 15 yards from MSU37 to MSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
2&10(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short right to #16 D.Asiasi thrown to MSU38−0.97
1&10(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short left to #11 D.Morgan thrown to MSU33 broken up by #43 X.Ahrens−0.75
1&10(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short middle to #3 J.Doss caught at MSU38, for 18 yards to the MSU37 (#2 T.Uluilakepa), 1ST DOWN+1.23

Montana State

PassJustin Lamson 11/16, 159 YDS, 1 TD
RushAdam Jones 9 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
RecTaco Dowler 3 REC, 38 YDS

Nevada

PassLuke Duncan 7/15, 51 YDS, 1 INT
RushDominic Kelley 12 CAR, 73 YDS
RecDamien Morgan 4 REC, 26 YDS

23.7sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

Snaps left

Drives left

6 ea.

Projected finalMONT 25 – 14 NEV

93%

won from here

Teams up 17 with 30 minutes left — like Montana State right now — went on to win 93% of the time across 784 comparable historical situations.

Tulane vs RiceW 30–28
Nevada vs Texas StateL 24–35
Louisiana vs South AlabamaW 33–20
Hawai'i vs NevadaW 27–14
Southeast Missouri State vs Eastern IllinoisW 38–27

Q2 5:39MONT +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Jones rush left for 6 yards gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN
Q1 12:05MONT +16%
Shotgun #8 J.Lamson pass complete short right to #84 D.Steel caught at Nevada12, for 24 yards to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q1 1:35MONT +9%
#39 M.Sansted field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD

FAQ

Who will win Montana State vs. Nevada?

Gridpex's model favors Nevada with a 74% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for Montana State vs. Nevada?

The model projects Nevada by 11.0.

What time is Montana State vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?

Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET on CW | The CW Network | ESPN Unlmtd, at Mackay Stadium.

MONT

NEV

0.24

EPA / play

0.16

0.52

EPA / pass

-0.12

-0.08

EPA / rush

0.37

60%

Success rate

44%

0.56

Explosiveness

0.81

3.4

Pts / scoring opp

0.0

Scoring opps

Avg start (own yd)

Momentum — net EPA by quarter

Q1: NEV +0.4Q2: MONT +2.3Last 10: NEV +1.1

MONT

NEV

61%

Early-down success

52%

64%

Pass success

35%

56%

Rush success

55%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

58%

Pass rate

46%

10.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.2

MONT

10.4 yards to go on 3rd down

38 scrimmage snaps

NEV

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

37 scrimmage snaps

MONT		NEV
228	Total yards	159
159	Passing yards	51
69	Rushing yards	108
14	First downs	11
4-7	3rd down	0-4
0-0	4th down	1-3
11/16	Comp/Att	7/15
9.9	Yards per pass	3.4
4.1	Yards per rush	5.4
0	Turnovers	1
10-90	Penalties	6-61
15:43	Possession	14:02

NEVLIVE8 plays · 69 yds · from NEV 20 · Q2+1.1 EPA
−1% WP
MONTPunt3 plays · 2 yds · from MONT 36 · Q2 2:30−0.6 EPA
+1% WP
NEVDowns7 plays · 39 yds · from NEV 35 · Q2 5:39+1.2 EPA
−2% WP
MONTTouchdown10 plays · 83 yds · from MONT 17 · Q2 10:52+4.6 EPA
+23% WP
NEVInterception10 plays · 45 yds · from NEV 35 · Q1 1:29−0.7 EPA
−3% WP
MONTField Goal8 plays · 49 yds · from MONT 24 · Q1 4:07+2.9 EPA
+10% WP
NEVPunt4 plays · -2 yds · from NEV 25 · Q1 5:27+1.9 EPA
−1% WP
MONTPunt6 plays · 11 yds · from MONT 43 · Q1 9:12−2.0 EPA
+1% WP
NEVDowns6 plays · 23 yds · from NEV 35 · Q1 11:58+2.0 EPA
−1% WP
MONTTouchdown7 plays · 75 yds · from MONT 35 · Q1 15:00+2.5 EPA
+15% WP

2&11(00:20) Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short right to #5 D.Cheers thrown to MSU00−0.30
1&8Timeout Nevada, clock 00:20
1&8(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short left to #11 D.Morgan caught at MSU11, for 3 yards loss to the MSU11 (#2 T.Uluilakepa)−0.54
1&10(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short right to #11 D.Morgan caught at MSU22, for 14 yards to the MSU08 (#2 T.Uluilakepa; #91 S.Brock), 1ST DOWN+0.33
3&10(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short left to #9 M.Brown thrown to MSU26 PENALTY MSU Roughing The Passer (#58 D.Solano) 15 yards from MSU37 to MSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
2&10(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short right to #16 D.Asiasi thrown to MSU38−0.97
1&10(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass incomplete short left to #11 D.Morgan thrown to MSU33 broken up by #43 X.Ahrens−0.75
1&10(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short middle to #3 J.Doss caught at MSU38, for 18 yards to the MSU37 (#2 T.Uluilakepa), 1ST DOWN+1.23

Q2 5:39MONTA. Jones run for 6 yds, for a TD (M. Sansted KICK)17–0
Q1 1:35MONTM. Sansted 45 yd FG GOOD10–0
Q1 12:05MONTJ. Lamson pass to D. Steel for 24 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (M. Sansted KICK)7–0

Live prediction-market data for this game, straight from the exchange's public feed. The distribution is every final margin the market will price and how likely it thinks each one is; the order book is the money actually resting behind today's price; the tape is what has really traded; and price history is how the number got where it is. Our live in-game model is drawn on the same axes — not the pregame projection, which the scoreboard has already overtaken.

Live · model vs market

16%

line model

Exchange

10%

last traded

ESPN

14%

their model

CFBD

13%

their model

Gap vs market

+6.2

points, toward Nevada

Widest spread of opinion here is 6 points, and the outlier is the exchange.

Every final score the market is pricing

74% of outcomes priced

A spread is one number; this is the whole picture behind it. Each bar is a possible final margin and how likely the exchange thinks it is, with our model's curve over the same buckets — so where the two disagree is visible rather than asserted.

Taller = the market thinks it more likely

Montana StatewinwinNevada

market our modelmarket -14.3 pts · model -11.4 pts

Final margin in points — positive means Nevada win by that much, negative Montana State. The dashed line is where the market's middle sits, the solid one ours.

Price history

102 hours · 459.7k contracts traded

What the exchange has been charging for “Nevada wins”, hour by hour. The shaded band is the gap between what buyers and sellers were asking; the dashed line is our model, held flat because the rating only moves when it is rebuilt. If the market drifts toward the dashed line, it came to us.

exchange all venuesopened 33% → now 5%▼ 28.0 pts

Order book

1¢ between the two sides

Nevada to win· cents on the dollar

Unfilled offers on this market — a 60¢ contract pays $1 if they win. The left column is money waiting to buy, the right money waiting to sell; the gap between the two top rows is how far apart buyers and sellers are, and a narrow gap on deep size is a price to take seriously.

BuyingSelling

9¢8.2k

8¢1.3k

7¢1.7k

6¢570

5¢1.0k

4¢45.9k

3¢43.5k

2¢11.3k

10¢22.7k

11¢16.3k

12¢8.5k

13¢919

15¢4.2k

16¢2.1k

17¢1.0k

20¢3.0k

178.4k contracts resting to buy80.8k to sell

Trade tape

last 14 trades

Every recent trade: the time, the price paid, and how many contracts. Green means the buyer was the one who moved to get filled, red the seller — a run of one colour is one side pushing the price.

12:11 AM10¢×94buyer

12:11 AM9¢×1seller

12:11 AM10¢×177buyer

12:11 AM10¢×58buyer

12:10 AM10¢×9buyer

12:10 AM10¢×38buyer

12:10 AM10¢×9buyer

12:10 AM10¢×1buyer

12:10 AM10¢×103buyer

12:10 AM10¢×5buyer

12:10 AM10¢×19buyer

12:10 AM10¢×70seller

12:10 AM11¢×80buyer

How many points, in total

90% of outcomes priced

The same picture for the combined score — every total the exchange is pricing and how likely it thinks each one is.

Taller = the market thinks it more likely

market our projectionmarket 44.4 pts · model — pts

Combined points scored by both teams. The dashed line is where the market's middle sits, the solid one ours.

Halves & overtime

1 of 1 quoting

1st half winner0% Nevada · 99% Montana State1¢ · 17.8k

Width in cents, then contracts traded. A market quoting too wide to be a price reads not quoting rather than showing a number — an untouched market still produces one, and it is an artefact rather than a price. Normal before kickoff; the thing to watch once a game is under way. A half can end level, so the tie is priced as a real outcome.

Exchange data is public market information; prices only. Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers. Our projection is shown for comparison and is not a recommendation — see the desk for when we consider a gap credible, and methodology for how the projection is built.

Live thread

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Montana State vs. Nevada: Live Score & Win Probability

MONTTeam statsNEV

Our model, right now

What the numbers say

Live · model vs market

Who will win Montana State vs. Nevada?

What's the predicted spread for Montana State vs. Nevada?

What time is Montana State vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?

Live · model vs market

Every final score the market is pricing

Price history

Order book

Trade tape

How many points, in total

Halves & overtime

Live · model vs market

Live · model vs market

Every final score the market is pricing

Price history

Order book

Trade tape

How many points, in total

Halves & overtime