Monmouth vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MONMTeam statsWMU
- Q4 0:15MONMNazir Treadwell 1 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)14–49
- Q4 4:11WMURyan Brotherton 21 Yd pass from Trey Petty (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–49
- Q3 3:55WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–42
- Q3 9:10WMUBaylin Brooks 12 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:20MONMTra Neal 5 Yd pass from Frankie Weaver (Sky Sholder Kick)7–28
- Q3 14:03WMUJalen Buckley 11 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–28
- Q2 4:47WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:53WMUEgypt Nelson 23 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:36WMUBaylin Brooks 13 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MONM kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. 1.8 pts per trip vs 6.1
- WMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MONM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 4.9
- WMU won this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against MONM. +0.09 vs -0.28 EPA/play
- PassFrankie Weaver 28/46, 273 YDS, 1 TD
- RushElijah Jennings 19 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecTra Neal 7 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBroc Lowry 14/20, 212 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBroc Lowry 4 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecAveion Chenault 4 REC, 101 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Monmouth vs. Western Michigan?
Monmouth 14, Western Michigan 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
| MONM | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 431 | Total yards | 414 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 27 | First downs | 24 |
| 11-20 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/46 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 10.6 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-34 | Penalties | 8-68 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:32 MONM punt on 4th & 3 at MONM 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.39 points.
- WMUEnd Of Quarter1 plays · 3 yds · from WMU 35 · Q4 0:15−0.3 EPA
- MONMTouchdown12 plays · 75 yds · from MONM 35 · Q4 4:11+0.7 EPA
- WMUTouchdown14 plays · 86 yds · from WMU 14 · Q4 12:03+5.3 EPA
- MONMDowns10 plays · 66 yds · from MONM 20 · Q3 0:39−3.1 EPA
- WMUPunt4 plays · 11 yds · from WMU 39 · Q3 2:46−2.1 EPA
- MONMFumble3 plays · 36 yds · from MONM 35 · Q3 3:55+1.2 EPA
- WMUTouchdown4 plays · 43 yds · from MONM 43 · Q3 6:05+2.4 EPA
- MONMDowns7 plays · 18 yds · from MONM 35 · Q3 9:10+2.7 EPA
- WMUTouchdown4 plays · 74 yds · from WMU 35 · Q3 11:15+3.5 EPA
- MONMTouchdown7 plays · 75 yds · from MONM 35 · Q3 14:03+3.9 EPA
- WMUTouchdown3 plays · 68 yds · from WMU 35 · Q3 15:00+3.0 EPA
- WMUEnd Of Half1 plays · -1 yds · from WMU 6 · Q2 0:21−0.3 EPA
- MONMFumble16 plays · 69 yds · from MONM 35 · Q2 4:47−3.5 EPA
- WMUTouchdown2 plays · 5 yds · from MONM 5 · Q2 5:19−0.7 EPA+1% WP
- Q4 0:15MONMNazir Treadwell 1 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)14–49
- Q4 4:11WMURyan Brotherton 21 Yd pass from Trey Petty (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–49
- Q3 3:55WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–42
- Q3 9:10WMUBaylin Brooks 12 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:20MONMTra Neal 5 Yd pass from Frankie Weaver (Sky Sholder Kick)7–28
- Q3 14:03WMUJalen Buckley 11 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–28
- Q2 4:47WMUJalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:53WMUEgypt Nelson 23 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:36WMUBaylin Brooks 13 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Dieter Kelly Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -24.1 (92% to win) — 4.4 points clear of MONM's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →