West Georgia vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WESTTeam statsARST
- Q4 2:31ARSTSolomon Baggett 33 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–52
- Q4 9:49ARSTDrew Dickey 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–45
- Q3 1:43ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 8:26ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:13ARSTFive Hamilton 91 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:05WESTT.J. Lockley 37 Yd pass from Colton Fitzgerald (Logan Lopez Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:19ARSTNoah Flores 68 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–21
- Q2 5:28ARSTJaylen Bonelli 30 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–14
- Q2 12:50ARSTChauncy Cobb 28 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WEST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 4.4
- WEST kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. -1.2 pts per trip vs 5.4
- PassColton Fitzgerald 14/24, 149 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushChristian Monfort 6 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecT.J. Lockley 6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrey Owens 13/17, 135 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSolomon Baggett 8 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChauncy Cobb 4 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- Q2 12:50ARST +9%
Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UWG35, for 28 yards to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of West Georgia vs. Arkansas State?
West Georgia 7, Arkansas State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARST) was correct.
| WEST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 391 |
| 174 | Passing yards | 135 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 256 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 5-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/34 | Comp/Att | 13/17 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-97 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 27:58 | Possession | 32:02 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:38 WEST punt on 4th & 1 at WEST 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
- WESTEnd of Half5 plays · 21 yds · from WEST 35 · Q4 2:31+4.9 EPA
- ARSTTouchdown4 plays · 80 yds · from ARST 20 · Q4 5:05+3.9 EPA
- WESTPunt7 plays · 24 yds · from WEST 35 · Q4 9:49−1.0 EPA
- ARSTTouchdown10 plays · 70 yds · from ARST 30 · Q3 0:38+4.0 EPA
- WESTPunt3 plays · 9 yds · from WEST 35 · Q3 1:43−0.7 EPA
- ARSTField Goal10 plays · 31 yds · from WEST 39 · Q3 6:57+0.8 EPA
- WESTInterception4 plays · -6 yds · from WEST 35 · Q3 8:26−0.0 EPA
- ARSTTouchdown6 plays · 31 yds · from WEST 31 · Q3 11:02−0.0 EPA
- WESTFumble1 plays · 6 yds · from WEST 35 · Q3 11:13+2.7 EPA
- WESTInterception Touchdown3 plays · -5 yds · from ARST 21 · Q3 12:21−0.7 EPA−2% WP
- ARSTFumble5 plays · -4 yds · from ARST 35 · Q3 15:00+2.6 EPA
- WESTEnd Of Half2 plays · 4 yds · from WEST 35 · Q2 0:05
- WESTTouchdown9 plays · 60 yds · from WEST 35 · Q2 1:19+0.7 EPA
- WESTFumble Return Touchdown8 plays · 43 yds · from WEST 35 · Q2 5:28+5.9 EPA
- Q4 2:31ARSTSolomon Baggett 33 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–52
- Q4 9:49ARSTDrew Dickey 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–45
- Q3 1:43ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 8:26ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:13ARSTFive Hamilton 91 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:05WESTT.J. Lockley 37 Yd pass from Colton Fitzgerald (Logan Lopez Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:19ARSTNoah Flores 68 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–21
- Q2 5:28ARSTJaylen Bonelli 30 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–14
- Q2 12:50ARSTChauncy Cobb 28 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects ARST -19.4 (87% to win) — 12.1 points clear of WEST's market line of -31.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →