Colgate vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLGTeam statsCMU
- Q4 7:29CMUVaughn Blue 6 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)10–13
- Q3 0:24CMUAngel Flores 50 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis PAT blocked)10–6
- Q2 0:36COLGLuke Vogeler 48 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 11:48COLGJake Stearney 3 Yd Run (Luke Vogeler Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = COLG ahead, below = CMU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJake Stearney 16/31, 124 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDanny Shaban 22 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecKam Phillips 3 REC, 43 YDS
- PassAngel Flores 7/13, 57 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAngel Flores 22 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- RecVaughn Blue 3 REC, 29 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Colgate vs. Central Michigan?
Colgate 10, Central Michigan 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CMU) was correct.
| COLG | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 219 | Total yards | 276 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 76 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 200 |
| 15 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 16/31 | Comp/Att | 10/21 |
| 4.0 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 6-62 |
| 27:19 | Possession | 32:41 |
- Q4 7:29CMUVaughn Blue 6 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)10–13
- Q3 0:24CMUAngel Flores 50 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis PAT blocked)10–6
- Q2 0:36COLGLuke Vogeler 48 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 11:48COLGJake Stearney 3 Yd Run (Luke Vogeler Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects CMU -22 (90% to win) — 3.5 points clear of CMU's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →