Dan Lanning

Oregon · 2026 · 2 graded games · 127 of 138 FBS staffs

−3.9points of win probability, ±2.2 · −1.9 a game

Play calling−1.4

1st down −0.32nd down −1.23rd down +0.1Red zone −0.1

Passing strategy+1.8

Depth −0.73rd-down sticks +2.6

4th down & 2-point+0.3

4th downs +0.22-point +0.1

Clock & timeouts−0.7

Tempo −1.1Timeouts +0.4

Personnel usage+0.2

Operations−4.1

Fourth downs: chose the option priced best on 13 of 17, and made 1 bold call — against what most staffs do, and right to.

Third down, 4+ to go: 4 throws short of the sticks, 8 past them.

What kept showing up

the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts · 1 game
several delay-of-game or substitution fouls · 1 game

Graded at the snap against what most staffs do in the same spot, with the pregame spread built in. A good call that fails still grades as good. Which play was called, and defensive calls, are not graded.

Best call of the season

Week 2, at Oklahoma State

4:37 Q3 · 4th & 7 at the opponent's 43, down 3: went for it

What happened: stopped short

+1.0

Costliest call of the season

Week 2, at Oklahoma State

10:21 Q4 · 1st & 10 at own 25: Delay Of Game, 5 yards

−2.5

Game by game

Week	Game · biggest call	Total	4th	Run/pass	Clock	Ops
2	at Oklahoma State L 31–39 1st & 10 at own 25: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −2.5	−3.3	+1.1	−1.1	−0.5	−4.4
1	vs Boise State W 34–27	−0.5	−0.9	−0.3	−0.2	+0.3

2 games is a handful of decisions, and one call can move a season total. The ± above is what that uncertainty amounts to. Every staff, week by week

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Dan Lanning

Oregon · 2026 · 2 graded games · 127 of 138 FBS staffs

−3.9points of win probability, ±2.2 · −1.9 a game

Play calling−1.4

1st down −0.32nd down −1.23rd down +0.1Red zone −0.1

Passing strategy+1.8

Depth −0.73rd-down sticks +2.6

4th down & 2-point+0.3

4th downs +0.22-point +0.1

Clock & timeouts−0.7

Tempo −1.1Timeouts +0.4

Personnel usage+0.2

Operations−4.1

Fourth downs: chose the option priced best on 13 of 17, and made 1 bold call — against what most staffs do, and right to.

Third down, 4+ to go: 4 throws short of the sticks, 8 past them.

What kept showing up

the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts · 1 game
several delay-of-game or substitution fouls · 1 game

Best call of the season

Week 2, at Oklahoma State

4:37 Q3 · 4th & 7 at the opponent's 43, down 3: went for it

What happened: stopped short

+1.0

Costliest call of the season

Week 2, at Oklahoma State

10:21 Q4 · 1st & 10 at own 25: Delay Of Game, 5 yards

−2.5

Game by game

Week	Game · biggest call	Total	4th	Run/pass	Clock	Ops
2	at Oklahoma State L 31–39 1st & 10 at own 25: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −2.5	−3.3	+1.1	−1.1	−0.5	−4.4
1	vs Boise State W 34–27	−0.5	−0.9	−0.3	−0.2	+0.3

2 games is a handful of decisions, and one call can move a season total. The ± above is what that uncertainty amounts to. Every staff, week by week