Mercyhurst vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MERCTeam statsUNM
- Q4 5:41UNMJerod Terry Jr. 8 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)7–70
- Q3 9:11UNMDJ Darling 35 Yd pass from Luke Moga (Nick Romero Kick)7–63
- Q3 10:46UNMDeshaun Buchanan 5 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)7–56
- Q2 0:50UNMScottre Humphrey 3 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–49
- Q2 6:57UNMToa Fa'avae 26 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–42
- Q2 9:14UNMTroy Omeire 64 Yd pass from Toa Fa'avae (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–35
- Q2 12:19UNMScottre Humphrey 2 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–28
- Q2 13:09UNMCade Keith 42 Yd pass from Luke Moga (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:14UNMKiefer Sibley 36 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:13MERCJeremy Yancey 75 Yd pass from Anthony Wolter (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:27UNMLuke Moga 1 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MERC ahead, below = UNM ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassAnthony Wolter 9/20, 111 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushEthen Knox 4 CAR, 17 YDS
- RecJeremy Yancey 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassToa Fa'avae 3/9, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RushScottre Humphrey 15 CAR, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTroy Omeire 2 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Mercyhurst vs. New Mexico?
Mercyhurst 7, New Mexico 70.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| MERC | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 155 | Total yards | 460 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 18 | Rushing yards | 287 |
| 10 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/27 | Comp/Att | 7/18 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 0.6 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-98 | Penalties | 4-44 |
| 26:27 | Possession | 33:33 |
- Q4 5:41UNMJerod Terry Jr. 8 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)7–70
- Q3 9:11UNMDJ Darling 35 Yd pass from Luke Moga (Nick Romero Kick)7–63
- Q3 10:46UNMDeshaun Buchanan 5 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)7–56
- Q2 0:50UNMScottre Humphrey 3 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–49
- Q2 6:57UNMToa Fa'avae 26 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–42
- Q2 9:14UNMTroy Omeire 64 Yd pass from Toa Fa'avae (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–35
- Q2 12:19UNMScottre Humphrey 2 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–28
- Q2 13:09UNMCade Keith 42 Yd pass from Luke Moga (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:14UNMKiefer Sibley 36 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:13MERCJeremy Yancey 75 Yd pass from Anthony Wolter (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:27UNMLuke Moga 1 Yd Run (Grant Glasgow Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -37.6 (99% to win) — 4.4 points clear of MERC's market line of -42. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →