Protective StadiumESPN+
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UAB 1184
ULM 1016
Projected spread
UAB -8.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
UAB
74% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
74%
UAB (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UAB Elo 1184, ULM Elo 1016) plus home-field advantage. That projects UAB -8.6 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelULM 26% · UAB 74%
Pick: UAB
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ULM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUAB
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1936%
Success rate
42%1.41
Key matchups · Pro
- ULM pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UAB pass defense (0.52 allowed) — edge UAB.
- ULM rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. UAB rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge UAB.
- UAB rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. ULM rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge UAB.
FAQ
Who will win UL Monroe vs. UAB?
Gridpex's model favors UAB with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UL Monroe vs. UAB?
The model projects UAB by 8.6.
What time is UL Monroe vs. UAB and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM on ESPN+, at Protective Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this UAB at 74% to win, projecting UAB by 8.6.