Cal Poly vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CAL Team statsSJSU
- Q4 7:20SJSUCarson Clark 41 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)20–30
- Q4 11:59SJSUTrajan Sinatra 40 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 14:29CAL Misa Paiau 1 Yd Run (Josue Lopez Kick)20–20
- Q3 4:29SJSUCooper Hoch 2 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)13–20
- Q3 12:41CAL Jaden Green 6 Yd pass from Anthony Grigsby Jr. (Josue Lopez Kick)13–13
- Q2 0:02SJSUTrajan Sinatra 32 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q2 5:07SJSUTrajan Sinatra 44 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 11:43SJSUCarson Clark 5 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)6–7
- Q2 14:03CAL Fidel Pitts 2 Yd Run (Josue Lopez PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassAnthony Grigsby Jr. 24/40, 249 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJaden Green 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecFidel Pitts 5 REC, 103 YDS
- PassLuke Weaver 22/34, 238 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJabari Bates 27 CAR, 163 YDS
- RecCarson Clark 8 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD
- Q4 14:29CAL +27%
#0 M.Paiau rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 4:29SJSU +18%
Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #13 C.Hoch caught at SLO02, for 2 yards to the SLO00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 12:41CAL +18%
Shotgun #7 A.Grigsby Jr. pass complete short left to #1 J.Green caught at SJSU02, for 6 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:43SJSU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #1 C.Clark caught at SLO00, for 5 yards to the SLO00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:03CAL +16%
#4 F.Pitts rush right for 2 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 7:20SJSU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete deep left to #1 C.Clark caught at SLO02, for 41 yards to the SLO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Cal Poly vs. San José State?
Cal Poly 20, San José State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
| CAL | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 493 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 238 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 255 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 28:58 | Possession | 31:02 |
- CAL End of Game3 plays · 15 yds · from CAL 13 · Q4 0:18+0.8 EPA
- SJSUPunt6 plays · 12 yds · from SJSU 37 · Q4 2:52−1.1 EPA
- CAL Downs12 plays · 38 yds · from CAL 35 · Q4 7:20+1.0 EPA−2% WP
- SJSUTouchdown6 plays · 80 yds · from SJSU 20 · Q4 10:14+2.8 EPA+19% WP
- CAL Interception6 plays · 45 yds · from CAL 35 · Q4 11:59+3.3 EPA
- SJSUField Goal6 plays · 21 yds · from SJSU 35 · Q4 14:22−0.4 EPA+13% WP
- CAL Touchdown12 plays · 80 yds · from CAL 35 · Q3 4:23+1.9 EPA+23% WP
- SJSUTouchdown10 plays · 49 yds · from CAL 49 · Q3 7:59−0.3 EPA+19% WP
- CAL Punt3 plays · 5 yds · from CAL 24 · Q3 8:56−1.0 EPA
- SJSUMissed FG8 plays · 61 yds · from SJSU 35 · Q3 12:34−0.5 EPA−1% WP
- CAL Touchdown5 plays · 65 yds · from CAL 35 · Q3 15:00+2.7 EPA+17% WP
- CAL End of Half1 plays · -1 yds · from CAL 35 · Q2 0:02−0.8 EPA
- SJSUField Goal15 plays · 57 yds · from SJSU 28 · Q2 3:11+2.0 EPA+5% WP
- CAL Punt3 plays · 7 yds · from CAL 35 · Q2 5:07−0.9 EPA
- Q4 7:20SJSUCarson Clark 41 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)20–30
- Q4 11:59SJSUTrajan Sinatra 40 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 14:29CAL Misa Paiau 1 Yd Run (Josue Lopez Kick)20–20
- Q3 4:29SJSUCooper Hoch 2 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)13–20
- Q3 12:41CAL Jaden Green 6 Yd pass from Anthony Grigsby Jr. (Josue Lopez Kick)13–13
- Q2 0:02SJSUTrajan Sinatra 32 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q2 5:07SJSUTrajan Sinatra 44 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 11:43SJSUCarson Clark 5 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)6–7
- Q2 14:03CAL Fidel Pitts 2 Yd Run (Josue Lopez PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -14.1 (80% to win) — 7.4 points clear of CAL 's market line of -21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →