College Football Coaching Decisions, Graded

AnalysisAll college football →

Win probability each staff’s calls added or cost against what most staffs do in the same spot. Graded at the snap against what most staffs do in the same spot, with the pregame spread built in. A good call that fails still grades as good. Which play was called, and defensive calls, are not graded.

Season202620252024

What a coaching grade is made of, 2025

Six families of decisions, added up. For each: the staff whose calls added the most, and the one whose calls cost the most.

Play calling

run or pass on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down and in the red zone, against how this offense matched up with this defense

Added most · P.J. Fleck · Minnesota+36.8

Cost most · Troy Calhoun · Air Force−26.9

best 1st down: P.J. Fleckbest 2nd down: Brent Prybest 3rd down: Kalen DeBoerbest red zone: P.J. Fleck

Passing strategy

staff and quarterback together: how deep they threw against what the defense gave up, and whether third-down throws reached the sticks

Added most · Lincoln Riley · USC+7.9

Cost most · Scotty Walden · UTEP−7.8

best depth: Willie Fritzbest 3rd-down sticks: Bronco Mendenhall

4th down & 2-point

go, kick or punt, the play called on a go, and two-point tries

Added most · Jeff Monken · Army+45.2

Cost most · Kirk Ferentz · Iowa−17.6

best 4th downs: Jeff Monkenbest 2-point: Timmy Chang

Clock & timeouts

tempo late and before halftime, clock-burning calls, timeouts unused or spent early, spikes, end-of-half possessions

Added most · Rhett Lashlee · SMU+18.4

Cost most · James Franklin · Penn State−38.0

best tempo: Pete Lembobest timeouts: Tre Lamb

Personnel usage

who got the ball, against each player's measured efficiency, in-game form and workload

Added most · Sean Lewis · San Diego State+8.3

Cost most · Jamey Chadwell · Liberty−17.1

Operations

delay of game, too many men and substitution fouls, against a typical staff's rate

Added most · Matt Campbell · Iowa State+10.9

Cost most · Gerad Parker · Troy−24.6

The 10 staffs whose calls added most, and the 10 that cost most · 2025, with 95% intervals

34 of 136 staffs are clearly above or below zero so far. The rest could be anywhere on their line — a rank is only a rank where the line does not cross zero.

clearly addedclearly costcan’t tell yet

1Jeff Monken · Army+55.5
2Dave Aranda · Baylor+44.1
3Ryan Carty · Delaware+39.5
4Charles Kelly · Jacksonville State+39.5
5Rhett Lashlee · SMU+38.6
6Jeff Choate · Nevada+37.2
7Lane Kiffin · Ole Miss+33.6
8Lance Taylor · Western Michigan+29.9
9Kalen DeBoer · Alabama+29.1
10Eli Drinkwitz · Missouri+28.3

Season win probability added vs the typical FBS staff, percentage points

2025 season

Rank bySeason totalPer gamePlay callingPassing strategy4th down & 2-pointClock & timeoutsPersonnel usageOperations3rd-down callsThrowing deep

ConferenceAllBig TenACCBig 12SECAmerican AthleticSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAMountain WestFBS IndependentsPac-12

#	Coach	Season	Per game	Play calling	Passing	4th & 2-pt	Clock	Usage	Ops
1	Jeff Monken Army · American Athletic · 13 games	+55.5 ±24.7	+4.3	−7.8 3rd −0.3	+4.4	+45.2 82/100 best · 15 bold	+6.3	−0.5	+7.8
2	Dave Aranda Baylor · Big 12 · 12 games	+44.1 ±9.9	+3.7	+10.6 3rd +0.4	−3.6	+32.5 79/92 best · 12 bold	+0.1	−0.2	+4.8
3	Ryan Carty Delaware · Conference USA · 13 games	+39.5 ±11.3	+3.0	+2.3 3rd +0.6	+1.1	+30.9 71/104 best · 5 bold	+5.1	+0.5	−0.4
4	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State · Conference USA · 14 games	+39.5 ±16.8	+2.8	+21.8 3rd −0.3	−0.5	+21.7 75/115 best · 5 bold	+0.1	−9.8	+6.1
5	Rhett Lashlee SMU · ACC · 13 games	+38.6 ±10.1	+3.0	+10.2 3rd +1.3	+4.1	+2.9 49/89 best · 2 bold	+18.4	+0.4	+2.6
6	Jeff Choate Nevada · Mountain West · 12 games	+37.2 ±11.8	+3.1	+15.2 3rd −0.1	−0.9	+2.9 49/96 best · 3 bold	+17.9	−0.7	+2.9
7	Lane Kiffin Ole Miss · SEC · 15 games	+33.6 ±12.0	+2.2	+16.1 3rd −1.5	+2.5	+8.0 71/106 best · 4 bold	+0.9	+2.0	+4.2
8	Lance Taylor Western Michigan · Mid-American · 14 games	+29.9 ±16.1	+2.1	+20.4 3rd +3.1	−5.3	+8.5 77/109 best · 3 bold	−3.4	+6.7	+3.0
9	Kalen DeBoer Alabama · SEC · 15 games	+29.1 ±8.1	+1.9	+23.1 3rd +6.3	+3.2	+10.6 80/110 best · 6 bold	−12.5	+2.2	+2.5
10	Eli Drinkwitz Missouri · SEC · 13 games	+28.3 ±10.9	+2.2	+19.8 3rd +4.5	−5.3	+11.3 54/84 best · 4 bold	−4.1	+2.1	+4.6
11	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State · Conference USA · 12 games	+26.3 ±11.8	+2.2	+16.7 3rd +1.2	+5.0	+2.7 66/100 best · 1 bold	−2.0	+0.6	+3.4
12	Sonny Dykes TCU · Big 12 · 13 games	+26.2 ±9.2	+2.0	+14.2 3rd +2.9	−1.8	+11.8 61/87 best · 6 bold	+1.2	+2.8	−1.9
13	Kirk Ferentz Iowa · Big Ten · 13 games	+23.8 ±13.8	+1.8	+34.2 3rd −0.6	+3.3	−17.6 51/86 best	+2.0	−2.4	+4.3
14	Greg Schiano Rutgers · Big Ten · 12 games	+23.4 ±9.6	+1.9	+2.0 3rd −1.5	+2.4	+23.1 62/85 best · 5 bold	+3.8	−10.0	+2.2
15	Major Applewhite South Alabama · Sun Belt · 12 games	+22.7 ±12.4	+1.9	+14.8 3rd +3.2	−0.2	+12.5 74/99 best · 8 bold	−6.6	+0.1	+2.1
16	Jason Eck New Mexico · Mountain West · 13 games	+21.0 ±8.3	+1.6	+3.5 3rd −0.7	+1.5	+25.5 67/89 best · 9 bold	−3.2	−5.9	−0.4
17	Lincoln Riley USC · Big Ten · 13 games	+21.0 ±10.9	+1.6	+3.0 3rd +1.2	+7.9	+9.0 52/67 best · 2 bold	−0.2	+0.3	+1.0
18	Chris Klieman Kansas State · Big 12 · 12 games	+20.5 ±9.4	+1.7	+2.1 3rd +2.2	−1.7	+19.0 67/97 best · 5 bold	+6.0	−5.4	+0.4
19	Matt Campbell Iowa State · Big 12 · 12 games	+20.2 ±8.9	+1.7	−4.9 3rd −0.9	+3.8	+11.0 55/89 best · 6 bold	−2.8	+2.2	+10.9
20	Michael Desormeaux Louisiana · Sun Belt · 13 games	+19.9 ±12.0	+1.5	+21.2 3rd +3.1	−3.0	+4.5 62/98 best · 2 bold	+1.3	−5.4	+1.3
21	Thomas Hammock Northern Illinois · Mid-American · 12 games	+19.5 ±16.4	+1.6	+29.0 3rd +6.3	−1.0	+13.3 70/111 best · 5 bold	−10.1	−11.3	−0.5
22	Ken Niumatalolo San José State · Mountain West · 12 games	+19.5 ±14.2	+1.6	+13.6 3rd +2.2	−2.9	−1.7 56/86 best · 4 bold	+6.5	+1.3	+2.6
23	Scott Satterfield Cincinnati · Big 12 · 13 games	+19.1 ±8.6	+1.5	+2.5 3rd −0.5	+0.1	+9.8 55/82 best · 4 bold	+4.6	+0.6	+1.5
24	Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh · ACC · 13 games	+18.1 ±9.1	+1.4	+6.9 3rd +1.4	+4.9	+5.6 80/111 best · 10 bold	−4.0	+1.9	+2.9
25	K.C. Keeler Temple · American Athletic · 12 games	+17.9 ±5.9	+1.5	0.0 3rd +3.2	−0.9	+9.3 48/90 best · 2 bold	+10.4	+0.1	−0.9
26	Bill O'Brien Boston College · ACC · 12 games	+17.6 ±8.3	+1.5	+9.4 3rd +1.2	+2.0	+2.0 57/97 best · 5 bold	+1.6	+1.1	+1.5
27	Jim Mora UConn · FBS Independents · 13 games	+16.1 ±9.7	+1.2	+10.3 3rd +2.8	−2.0	−11.0 59/94 best · 3 bold	+10.2	+4.0	+4.7
28	Timmy Chang Hawai'i · Mountain West · 13 games	+15.7 ±14.9	+1.2	+12.3 3rd +3.7	+1.4	−0.6 52/97 best · 1 bold	−1.7	−0.2	+4.5
29	Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic · American Athletic · 12 games	+15.0 ±6.9	+1.3	+2.7 3rd +0.9	−0.3	+8.8 85/105 best · 5 bold	+0.8	+0.9	+2.1
30	Dan Mullen UNLV · Mountain West · 14 games	+14.7 ±9.7	+1.1	+1.2 3rd −1.4	+2.7	+5.8 54/89 best · 2 bold	+5.9	−2.6	+1.9
31	Willie Simmons Florida International · Conference USA · 13 games	+14.6 ±9.6	+1.1	+6.7 3rd +0.9	−1.1	+15.4 82/115 best · 8 bold	−1.5	−0.7	−4.3
32	Brent Pry Virginia Tech · ACC · 12 games	+14.5 ±8.6	+1.2	+31.9 3rd +2.0	+0.4	−12.4 58/94 best	−2.8	−1.7	−0.9
33	Justin Wilcox California · ACC · 13 games	+14.3 ±14.5	+1.1	+14.1 3rd +3.6	+5.8	−1.4 71/103 best · 1 bold	−3.3	−4.6	+3.8
34	Dave Doeren NC State · ACC · 13 games	+14.3 ±9.0	+1.1	+6.7 3rd +2.7	−1.1	+11.9 69/94 best · 4 bold	−5.0	−2.8	+4.6
35	Mike Locksley Maryland · Big Ten · 12 games	+14.3 ±10.3	+1.2	+11.4 3rd +0.9	+1.3	+3.0 63/108 best · 3 bold	−2.3	−0.9	+1.8
36	Kirby Smart Georgia · SEC · 14 games	+13.3 ±7.5	+1.0	+5.9 3rd +3.3	+1.8	+6.6 57/89 best · 4 bold	−0.8	+2.6	−2.7
37	Tre Lamb Tulsa · American Athletic · 12 games	+13.0 ±10.6	+1.1	+0.9 3rd +0.1	−2.5	+18.5 77/113 best · 9 bold	−1.3	−6.0	+3.4
38	Dell McGee Georgia State · Sun Belt · 12 games	+12.9 ±7.4	+1.1	+5.3 3rd +1.1	−1.0	+6.4 73/106 best · 3 bold	−2.1	+5.6	−1.3
39	Mike Uremovich Ball State · Mid-American · 12 games	+12.2 ±6.3	+1.0	+2.9 3rd −0.4	+1.4	+10.0 70/105 best · 3 bold	−1.8	−0.9	+0.7
40	Clay Helton Georgia Southern · Sun Belt · 13 games	+12.0 ±10.5	+0.9	+8.1 3rd +0.2	+2.5	+3.8 51/90 best · 4 bold	−8.8	+2.5	+3.9
41	P.J. Fleck Minnesota · Big Ten · 13 games	+12.0 ±15.4	+0.9	+36.8 3rd +2.7	+2.6	−15.0 51/97 best	−6.8	−0.1	−5.4
42	Jon Sumrall Tulane · American Athletic · 14 games	+11.2 ±6.9	+0.8	+2.9 3rd +1.0	−2.5	+3.7 62/101 best · 2 bold	+0.7	+2.1	+4.3
43	Mark Stoops Kentucky · SEC · 12 games	+10.3 ±7.1	+0.9	+5.4 3rd +1.2	−1.2	+0.8 51/83 best · 2 bold	+2.1	+0.1	+3.1
44	David Braun Northwestern · Big Ten · 13 games	+10.0 ±6.0	+0.8	+5.5 3rd +2.1	+2.4	+4.2 66/91 best · 1 bold	−6.8	+1.6	+3.2
45	Sean Lewis San Diego State · Mountain West · 13 games	+10.0 ±11.0	+0.8	+10.3 3rd +3.4	−4.8	−15.8 73/114 best · 2 bold	+7.5	+8.3	+4.6
46	Scotty Walden UTEP · Conference USA · 12 games	+9.5 ±7.1	+0.8	+7.4 3rd +0.2	−7.8	+17.6 80/112 best · 9 bold	−5.8	−0.6	−1.4
47	Phil Longo Sam Houston · Conference USA · 12 games	+8.7 ±7.4	+0.7	+4.4 3rd −0.8	−3.3	+6.9 73/114 best · 4 bold	−0.4	−0.7	+1.9
48	Willie Fritz Houston · Big 12 · 13 games	+8.3 ±10.7	+0.6	−3.4 3rd −1.6	−0.2	+7.5 74/112 best · 2 bold	−3.6	+3.1	+4.9
49	Scott Abell Rice · American Athletic · 13 games	+8.2 ±13.6	+0.6	+1.9 3rd −0.4	0.0	+1.3 78/113 best · 1 bold	0.0	+0.5	+4.4
50	Jeff Traylor UTSA · American Athletic · 13 games	+7.1 ±7.7	+0.5	+0.1 3rd +1.3	+2.3	+12.6 72/101 best · 6 bold	−8.8	+1.5	−0.6
51	Marcus Freeman Notre Dame · FBS Independents · 12 games	+6.9 ±7.1	+0.6	+0.1 3rd +0.3	−0.6	+10.8 44/65 best · 4 bold	−6.4	+0.3	+2.7
52	Kyle Whittingham Utah · Big 12 · 13 games	+6.8 ±8.3	+0.5	+5.3 3rd +4.9	−0.7	+9.7 47/76 best · 3 bold	−0.3	−6.9	−0.3
53	Kalani Sitake BYU · Big 12 · 14 games	+6.7 ±9.1	+0.5	+7.7 3rd +1.4	−1.7	+5.8 60/101 best · 1 bold	−6.1	−0.1	+1.2
54	Mark Carney Kent State · Mid-American · 12 games	+6.7 ±6.9	+0.6	−2.6 3rd +0.5	−1.6	+21.5 65/104 best · 5 bold	−6.6	+1.2	−5.1
55	Mike Norvell Florida State · ACC · 12 games	+6.7 ±10.1	+0.6	+10.3 3rd +0.7	+1.6	−0.3 50/74 best · 4 bold	−4.6	+1.6	−1.9
56	Fran Brown Syracuse · ACC · 12 games	+6.5 ±6.8	+0.5	+0.9 3rd −0.2	+0.7	+6.2 75/109 best	−2.1	+1.6	−0.8
57	Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech · Conference USA · 13 games	+6.3 ±12.1	+0.5	+10.8 3rd +4.0	+1.1	−1.0 61/97 best · 2 bold	−8.1	−1.2	+4.8
58	Spencer Danielson Boise State · Mountain West · 14 games	+5.0 ±8.5	+0.4	+4.7 3rd +0.5	−1.5	+4.5 73/108 best · 1 bold	−0.2	−5.5	+3.0
59	Barry Odom Purdue · Big Ten · 12 games	+4.9 ±4.2	+0.4	+0.6 3rd +0.2	+0.5	+1.4 52/93 best · 3 bold	−0.5	+0.3	+2.7
60	Jay Norvell Colorado State · Mountain West · 12 games	+4.4 ±8.2	+0.4	+7.9 3rd +1.3	−3.3	+2.3 60/99 best · 6 bold	−6.0	+1.1	+2.4
61	Tim Albin Charlotte · American Athletic · 12 games	+4.2 ±5.4	+0.3	−0.1 3rd −0.5	+1.0	+2.7 64/105 best · 2 bold	−1.8	+0.3	+2.2
62	Tim Beck Coastal Carolina · Sun Belt · 13 games	+4.0 ±9.7	+0.3	+5.6 3rd −2.0	+2.0	−0.6 77/117 best · 1 bold	−2.3	−1.4	+0.7
63	G.J. Kinne Texas State · Sun Belt · 13 games	+3.7 ±8.4	+0.3	+0.4 3rd +0.1	−0.6	−2.4 49/85 best · 3 bold	+5.7	−1.3	+2.0
64	Brian Newberry Navy · American Athletic · 13 games	+2.9 ±17.2	+0.2	+1.2 3rd −0.3	−4.7	+6.4 49/74 best · 7 bold	−0.1	−2.4	+2.5
65	Deion Sanders Colorado · Big 12 · 12 games	+2.5 ±9.1	+0.2	+6.3 3rd +0.7	−2.2	+2.5 60/102 best · 3 bold	−5.4	−1.8	+3.0
66	Bret Bielema Illinois · Big Ten · 13 games	+2.4 ±6.1	+0.2	+2.4 3rd +1.5	+2.1	+5.5 59/81 best · 4 bold	+0.1	−4.8	−2.8
67	Bob Chesney James Madison · Sun Belt · 14 games	+2.3 ±5.5	+0.2	+4.6 3rd +0.5	+2.9	+3.0 63/88 best · 2 bold	−0.8	−1.7	−5.7
68	Jedd Fisch Washington · Big Ten · 13 games	+2.1 ±6.5	+0.2	+1.7 3rd +0.4	−1.2	+4.4 42/67 best · 2 bold	−4.1	−2.4	+3.8
69	Kenny Dillingham Arizona State · Big 12 · 13 games	+2.1 ±15.0	+0.2	−4.0 3rd 0.0	+1.5	+2.0 82/113 best · 7 bold	−3.4	+1.4	+4.7
70	Jeff Brohm Louisville · ACC · 13 games	+1.9 ±10.5	+0.1	−0.2 3rd −1.4	−2.8	−6.1 48/98 best · 2 bold	+10.7	+2.6	−2.4
71	Lance Leipold Kansas · Big 12 · 12 games	+1.6 ±10.1	+0.1	+11.5 3rd 0.0	+1.2	−0.5 52/83 best · 1 bold	−6.3	−6.1	+2.0
72	Steve Sarkisian Texas · SEC · 13 games	+1.5 ±8.6	+0.1	+3.3 3rd 0.0	+7.5	−4.6 65/102 best · 2 bold	−8.6	+2.2	+1.7
73	Ryan Day Ohio State · Big Ten · 14 games	+1.4 ±5.7	+0.1	+13.9 3rd +3.7	+1.4	−13.3 39/66 best	−2.9	+0.1	+2.4
74	Bronco Mendenhall Utah State · Mountain West · 13 games	+1.4 ±9.0	+0.1	−9.4 3rd −2.5	+5.3	+4.4 66/101 best · 3 bold	−1.7	+1.1	+1.7
75	Jeff Lebby Mississippi State · SEC · 13 games	+1.0 ±10.3	+0.1	+3.3 3rd −0.4	−5.6	+0.6 61/105 best · 3 bold	+7.5	−4.3	−0.4
76	Mario Cristobal Miami · ACC · 16 games	+0.7 ±9.4	0.0	+3.3 3rd +1.7	+4.7	−2.9 64/102 best	−2.8	−0.1	−1.4
77	Tyson Helton Western Kentucky · Conference USA · 13 games	+0.7 ±10.3	+0.1	+10.8 3rd −0.5	+0.9	−4.8 57/91 best · 2 bold	−8.6	−1.4	+3.8
78	Jay Sawvel Wyoming · Mountain West · 12 games	+0.5 ±6.6	0.0	+1.3 3rd +0.6	−0.8	−0.9 57/102 best · 3 bold	−2.7	+2.3	+1.4
79	Rich Rodriguez West Virginia · Big 12 · 12 games	+0.5 ±8.3	0.0	−0.5 3rd +0.9	−6.9	+7.6 79/119 best · 4 bold	−1.1	−1.3	+2.7
80	Dan Lanning Oregon · Big Ten · 15 games	+0.4 ±7.1	0.0	+1.0 3rd −1.1	+2.0	−12.5 59/90 best · 3 bold	+4.7	+3.1	+2.1
81	Joey McGuire Texas Tech · Big 12 · 14 games	+0.2 ±5.0	0.0	0.0 3rd −0.5	−3.4	+3.5 61/96 best · 3 bold	−0.3	−1.1	+1.6
82	Eddie George Bowling Green · Mid-American · 12 games	0.0 ±8.3	0.0	+5.2 3rd +1.3	−1.7	−4.3 54/103 best · 2 bold	+1.2	−0.3	−0.1
83	Trent Dilfer UAB · American Athletic · 12 games	−0.4 ±7.7	0.0	+1.0 3rd +1.1	+0.6	+1.6 61/82 best · 1 bold	−2.5	−2.1	+1.1
84	Bryant Vincent UL Monroe · Sun Belt · 12 games	−0.8 ±6.8	−0.1	−5.0 3rd −2.5	+2.4	+3.8 63/95 best · 4 bold	−5.2	+5.9	−2.7
85	Jimmy Rogers Washington State · Pac-12 · 13 games	−0.9 ±7.6	−0.1	+3.1 3rd +1.5	+3.0	+3.2 63/97 best · 2 bold	−7.2	−0.3	−2.7
86	Clark Lea Vanderbilt · SEC · 13 games	−1.2 ±10.1	−0.1	+3.4 3rd +0.6	−5.5	+6.8 37/57 best · 4 bold	−0.7	−3.4	−1.8
87	Frank Reich Stanford · ACC · 12 games	−1.4 ±6.3	−0.1	+6.6 3rd −2.0	+0.1	−1.5 72/103 best · 1 bold	−7.0	+0.3	+0.1
88	Ryan Silverfield Memphis · American Athletic · 13 games	−1.7 ±8.4	−0.1	−4.6 3rd +0.6	−5.1	+11.0 57/88 best · 4 bold	−3.0	−0.2	+0.2
89	Jonathan Smith Michigan State · Big Ten · 12 games	−2.1 ±5.3	−0.2	−3.3 3rd −0.8	+2.4	+6.0 67/96 best · 3 bold	−7.9	−0.5	+1.2
90	Tony Elliott Virginia · ACC · 14 games	−2.8 ±9.1	−0.2	+2.6 3rd −0.3	−7.5	+11.5 70/109 best · 5 bold	−10.1	−3.8	+4.4
91	Alex Golesh South Florida · American Athletic · 13 games	−3.5 ±7.5	−0.3	−2.6 3rd +0.5	+1.0	−2.8 60/88 best · 3 bold	−3.6	+0.6	+3.9
92	Eric Morris North Texas · American Athletic · 14 games	−3.5 ±6.4	−0.3	−2.3 3rd +0.5	−1.0	+2.8 59/82 best · 2 bold	−6.0	−0.8	+3.9
93	Blake Harrell East Carolina · American Athletic · 13 games	−3.9 ±6.0	−0.3	−3.1 3rd −1.2	+4.0	−1.6 74/98 best · 4 bold	−0.5	+0.4	−3.0
94	Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts · Mid-American · 12 games	−4.0 ±5.9	−0.3	+4.3 3rd +1.6	−0.6	+3.0 73/107 best · 1 bold	−13.0	−0.4	+2.8
95	Manny Diaz Duke · ACC · 14 games	−4.1 ±9.8	−0.3	+9.6 3rd +4.5	+5.0	+2.3 71/103 best · 11 bold	−8.7	−1.9	−10.4
96	Matt Rhule Nebraska · Big Ten · 13 games	−4.2 ±10.1	−0.3	+7.1 3rd +1.0	+0.3	−2.7 49/81 best · 3 bold	−7.0	−4.1	+2.2
97	Butch Jones Arkansas State · Sun Belt · 13 games	−4.9 ±8.9	−0.4	−9.2 3rd −2.9	+6.2	−5.4 69/112 best · 3 bold	−8.6	+4.7	+7.4
98	Josh Heupel Tennessee · SEC · 13 games	−5.0 ±7.1	−0.4	+1.4 3rd +1.7	+3.4	−6.5 46/72 best	−8.0	+0.2	+4.6
99	Brent Brennan Arizona · Big 12 · 13 games	−5.1 ±9.0	−0.4	−4.2 3rd −1.7	−1.0	−3.2 70/101 best · 7 bold	−0.7	+1.3	+2.8
100	Trent Bray Oregon State · Pac-12 · 12 games	−5.9 ±11.3	−0.5	+7.5 3rd +1.8	−2.4	−12.5 59/101 best	+3.2	−3.2	+1.5
101	Brian Smith Ohio · Mid-American · 13 games	−6.0 ±8.0	−0.5	+6.6 3rd +2.5	−0.1	+0.4 58/80 best · 1 bold	−7.8	+3.1	−8.2
102	Brian Kelly LSU · SEC · 13 games	−6.1 ±8.5	−0.5	+1.5 3rd +0.4	+2.2	−8.9 62/104 best · 1 bold	−5.7	+1.3	+3.5
103	Billy Napier Florida · SEC · 12 games	−7.1 ±8.8	−0.6	−0.4 3rd +0.6	+0.3	−4.8 49/89 best · 1 bold	−1.5	−1.8	+1.1
104	Pete Lembo Buffalo · Mid-American · 12 games	−7.4 ±9.1	−0.6	+4.9 3rd +1.0	−3.0	−11.0 66/104 best · 2 bold	+6.8	+0.9	−5.9
105	Hugh Freeze Auburn · SEC · 12 games	−7.8 ±9.1	−0.7	+2.2 3rd −2.7	−0.1	+2.6 65/94 best · 3 bold	−9.1	−4.9	+1.5
106	Ricky Rahne Old Dominion · Sun Belt · 13 games	−7.9 ±6.4	−0.6	−1.8 3rd −0.5	+1.8	−7.7 51/92 best · 1 bold	−2.7	−0.1	+2.5
107	Mike Elko Texas A&M · SEC · 13 games	−7.9 ±7.4	−0.6	+1.7 3rd −0.9	−3.8	−2.0 59/91 best · 1 bold	−7.2	+0.2	+3.2
108	Mike Gundy Oklahoma State · Big 12 · 12 games	−8.1 ±5.3	−0.7	−4.7 3rd −0.5	−2.3	+3.1 70/113 best · 1 bold	−4.9	+1.3	−0.5
109	Matt Drinkall Central Michigan · Mid-American · 13 games	−9.8 ±12.0	−0.8	−0.1 3rd +0.3	−0.2	+0.7 65/99 best · 1 bold	−5.8	−0.5	−4.0
110	Brent Key Georgia Tech · ACC · 13 games	−10.5 ±11.7	−0.8	−1.5 3rd −0.5	+1.8	−8.7 47/76 best · 3 bold	−8.1	−0.8	+6.9
111	Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan · Mid-American · 12 games	−11.1 ±7.8	−0.9	+0.5 3rd −1.3	+1.0	−0.3 49/90 best · 3 bold	−7.4	−0.9	−3.8
112	Jason Candle Toledo · Mid-American · 13 games	−11.3 ±5.0	−0.9	+1.1 3rd +0.7	−1.5	−8.9 58/95 best · 1 bold	−1.1	−1.4	+0.4
113	Sherrone Moore Michigan · Big Ten · 13 games	−12.5 ±7.6	−1.0	+3.7 3rd +1.1	−3.9	−5.4 46/83 best · 2 bold	−3.7	−5.1	+2.0
114	Sam Pittman Arkansas · SEC · 12 games	−12.8 ±7.3	−1.1	+5.0 3rd −0.8	−4.2	−3.7 43/66 best · 2 bold	−12.3	−2.1	+4.4
115	Tony Gibson Marshall · Sun Belt · 12 games	−13.3 ±10.2	−1.1	−2.8 3rd +0.8	+1.8	−15.5 52/98 best	−2.5	−0.5	+6.2
116	Scott Frost UCF · Big 12 · 12 games	−13.4 ±6.7	−1.1	−2.8 3rd −1.7	+0.7	−5.1 76/104 best · 1 bold	−8.3	−0.1	+2.2
117	Troy Calhoun Air Force · Mountain West · 12 games	−13.9 ±22.8	−1.2	−26.9 3rd −7.0	−1.1	+18.2 51/70 best · 4 bold	−5.6	−1.5	+3.0
118	Curt Cignetti Indiana · Big Ten · 16 games	−14.1 ±9.3	−0.9	−1.4 3rd −0.1	+4.3	−2.6 46/78 best · 1 bold	−9.4	−4.0	−1.1
119	Chuck Martin Miami (OH) · Mid-American · 14 games	−14.2 ±7.0	−1.0	+0.6 3rd +1.3	+1.8	−10.9 58/107 best · 2 bold	−3.8	−2.3	+0.5
120	Brent Venables Oklahoma · SEC · 13 games	−15.4 ±9.8	−1.2	+4.6 3rd −1.3	−2.9	−4.2 61/103 best · 1 bold	−7.8	−2.1	−3.1
121	Jamey Chadwell Liberty · Conference USA · 12 games	−16.0 ±14.5	−1.3	+18.6 3rd +0.5	+1.8	+3.1 54/88 best · 2 bold	−6.8	−17.1	−15.7
122	Shane Beamer South Carolina · SEC · 12 games	−16.2 ±7.7	−1.3	−1.4 3rd +0.1	−0.5	−5.6 63/99 best · 1 bold	−11.5	−0.3	+3.1
123	Matt Entz Fresno State · Mountain West · 13 games	−16.2 ±10.0	−1.2	+2.7 3rd −0.1	−1.6	−12.6 63/99 best · 4 bold	−2.7	−0.1	−1.8
124	Jake Dickert Wake Forest · ACC · 13 games	−16.9 ±9.1	−1.3	−1.4 3rd −0.4	−3.3	−5.6 75/108 best · 3 bold	−3.4	−6.1	+2.9
125	Luke Fickell Wisconsin · Big Ten · 12 games	−16.9 ±7.6	−1.4	+5.8 3rd +2.3	−4.9	−13.6 43/99 best · 1 bold	−3.6	−1.0	+0.4
126	Ryan Beard Missouri State · Conference USA · 13 games	−17.7 ±7.9	−1.4	+2.5 3rd −0.4	−7.1	−11.2 50/90 best · 3 bold	−4.4	+0.7	+1.8
127	Derek Mason Middle Tennessee · Conference USA · 12 games	−18.4 ±9.2	−1.5	+2.8 3rd +1.0	0.0	+4.2 61/103 best · 3 bold	−24.3	−0.7	−0.4
128	Jerry Mack Kennesaw State · Conference USA · 14 games	−18.5 ±10.2	−1.3	−4.0 3rd −0.1	−6.4	−0.6 65/109 best · 3 bold	−9.0	−1.5	+3.1
129	Gerad Parker Troy · Sun Belt · 14 games	−18.8 ±12.7	−1.3	+7.4 3rd +1.5	−1.2	+15.5 88/120 best · 8 bold	−11.2	−4.8	−24.6
130	Deshaun Foster UCLA · Big Ten · 12 games	−20.0 ±8.4	−1.7	+4.8 3rd −0.2	−0.2	−4.9 55/92 best · 2 bold	−3.6	−0.9	−15.3
131	Dabo Swinney Clemson · ACC · 13 games	−21.4 ±10.3	−1.6	+2.6 3rd +0.9	−7.7	−10.3 67/111 best · 1 bold	−7.0	−0.4	+1.4
132	Charles Huff Southern Miss · Sun Belt · 13 games	−22.1 ±6.0	−1.7	−2.6 3rd −0.8	+0.2	−8.7 56/105 best · 1 bold	−11.1	−0.1	+0.3
133	Bill Belichick North Carolina · ACC · 12 games	−22.4 ±6.4	−1.9	+4.6 3rd +2.7	−3.0	−16.0 47/95 best	−1.0	+0.2	−7.1
134	Dowell Loggains App State · Sun Belt · 13 games	−23.1 ±9.5	−1.8	−5.3 3rd −1.2	−2.0	−6.4 75/109 best · 1 bold	−4.1	−8.9	+3.5
135	James Franklin Penn State · Big Ten · 13 games	−28.0 ±9.7	−2.2	−2.9 3rd +0.1	+1.1	+8.4 61/84 best · 7 bold	−38.0	0.0	+3.3
136	Joe Moorhead Akron · Mid-American · 12 games	−37.1 ±8.6	−3.1	−1.0 3rd −0.8	+4.9	−7.6 63/104 best · 1 bold	−12.1	+1.2	−22.5

Does a coaching grade repeat?

Measured on 2024 and 2025: split each staff’s season into odd and even weeks and ask whether the two halves agree. For the whole grade the answer is some of it is the staff (a full season’s reliability of 0.40). Treat a single week as a description of that game, and a season as a description of that season.

Part	Within a season	Season to season	Reads as
Whole grade	0.40n=270 · 0.13 to 0.36	0.11n=104 · -0.09 to 0.29	some of it is the staff
Play calling	0.62n=270 · 0.35 to 0.54	-0.10n=104 · -0.29 to 0.10	largely the staff
Passing strategy	0.10n=270 · -0.07 to 0.17	—	mostly the games, not the staff
Fourth downs	0.45n=270 · 0.17 to 0.39	0.32n=104 · 0.14 to 0.48	some of it is the staff
Clock & timeouts	0.20n=270 · -0.01 to 0.23	0.02n=104 · -0.17 to 0.22	mostly the games, not the staff
Personnel usage	0.74n=270 · 0.51 to 0.67	—	largely the staff
Operations	0.03n=270 · -0.11 to 0.13	0.05n=104 · -0.15 to 0.24	mostly the games, not the staff

Correlations with 95% intervals; n is staffs. Seasons up to 2025 are graded with a model fit on 2017-2025; 2026 is out of sample.

What the grade tested before trusting it

Riding the hot hand. A player's production earlier in a game told us nothing about the rest of it, once his season level was known (960 running back games, 239 receiver games). So chasing a hot hand is not rewarded, and not chasing one is not punished.
Wearing out a back. Past his 20th carry, a back runs 0.08 expected points per carry below his own season level. Those carries count against the staff's usage grade.
A timeout spent early. A second-half timeout that reaches the last four minutes is worth 0.24 points of win probability on average, across every game, close or not. That is what one burned in the third quarter costs.

How to read it. +3.0 means the staff’s calls, taken together, left the team three points of win probability better off than the typical staff’s calls in the same situations would have. The ± is how sure that is: the run/pass mix is the least certain part, because what worked early in a game is thin evidence. The total is six families added up: play calling, passing strategy, fourth downs and two-point tries, clock and timeouts, personnel usage, and operations. Passing strategy is the staff and the quarterback together — the call sets the menu and the quarterback reads the coverage. Its depth part credits throwing where this offense beat this defense by more than usual, not throwing deep for its own sake: league-wide, deep throws look better partly because they are thrown when someone is open. Best counts fourth downs where the staff chose the option priced highest; bold counts calls that went against what most staffs do in that spot and priced out better for it.

Head coaches only. Where a coordinator calls the plays, the number describes the staff the head coach runs. *Pre-snap discipline — false starts and formation fouls — is shown and left out of the total: it belongs to the players as much as the sideline.

Each game’s recap carries the full list of graded calls.

Loading coaching grades…

College Football Coaching Decisions, Graded

What a coaching grade is made of, 2025

Six families of decisions, added up. For each: the staff whose calls added the most, and the one whose calls cost the most.

Play calling

run or pass on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down and in the red zone, against how this offense matched up with this defense

Added most · P.J. Fleck · Minnesota+36.8

Cost most · Troy Calhoun · Air Force−26.9

best 1st down: P.J. Fleckbest 2nd down: Brent Prybest 3rd down: Kalen DeBoerbest red zone: P.J. Fleck

Passing strategy

staff and quarterback together: how deep they threw against what the defense gave up, and whether third-down throws reached the sticks

Added most · Lincoln Riley · USC+7.9

Cost most · Scotty Walden · UTEP−7.8

best depth: Willie Fritzbest 3rd-down sticks: Bronco Mendenhall

4th down & 2-point

go, kick or punt, the play called on a go, and two-point tries

Added most · Jeff Monken · Army+45.2

Cost most · Kirk Ferentz · Iowa−17.6

best 4th downs: Jeff Monkenbest 2-point: Timmy Chang

Clock & timeouts

tempo late and before halftime, clock-burning calls, timeouts unused or spent early, spikes, end-of-half possessions

Added most · Rhett Lashlee · SMU+18.4

Cost most · James Franklin · Penn State−38.0

best tempo: Pete Lembobest timeouts: Tre Lamb

Personnel usage

who got the ball, against each player's measured efficiency, in-game form and workload

Added most · Sean Lewis · San Diego State+8.3

Cost most · Jamey Chadwell · Liberty−17.1

Operations

delay of game, too many men and substitution fouls, against a typical staff's rate

Added most · Matt Campbell · Iowa State+10.9

Cost most · Gerad Parker · Troy−24.6

2025 season

#	Coach	Season	Per game	Play calling	Passing	4th & 2-pt	Clock	Usage	Ops
1	Jeff Monken Army · American Athletic · 13 games	+55.5 ±24.7	+4.3	−7.8 3rd −0.3	+4.4	+45.2 82/100 best · 15 bold	+6.3	−0.5	+7.8
2	Dave Aranda Baylor · Big 12 · 12 games	+44.1 ±9.9	+3.7	+10.6 3rd +0.4	−3.6	+32.5 79/92 best · 12 bold	+0.1	−0.2	+4.8
3	Ryan Carty Delaware · Conference USA · 13 games	+39.5 ±11.3	+3.0	+2.3 3rd +0.6	+1.1	+30.9 71/104 best · 5 bold	+5.1	+0.5	−0.4
4	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State · Conference USA · 14 games	+39.5 ±16.8	+2.8	+21.8 3rd −0.3	−0.5	+21.7 75/115 best · 5 bold	+0.1	−9.8	+6.1
5	Rhett Lashlee SMU · ACC · 13 games	+38.6 ±10.1	+3.0	+10.2 3rd +1.3	+4.1	+2.9 49/89 best · 2 bold	+18.4	+0.4	+2.6
6	Jeff Choate Nevada · Mountain West · 12 games	+37.2 ±11.8	+3.1	+15.2 3rd −0.1	−0.9	+2.9 49/96 best · 3 bold	+17.9	−0.7	+2.9
7	Lane Kiffin Ole Miss · SEC · 15 games	+33.6 ±12.0	+2.2	+16.1 3rd −1.5	+2.5	+8.0 71/106 best · 4 bold	+0.9	+2.0	+4.2
8	Lance Taylor Western Michigan · Mid-American · 14 games	+29.9 ±16.1	+2.1	+20.4 3rd +3.1	−5.3	+8.5 77/109 best · 3 bold	−3.4	+6.7	+3.0
9	Kalen DeBoer Alabama · SEC · 15 games	+29.1 ±8.1	+1.9	+23.1 3rd +6.3	+3.2	+10.6 80/110 best · 6 bold	−12.5	+2.2	+2.5
10	Eli Drinkwitz Missouri · SEC · 13 games	+28.3 ±10.9	+2.2	+19.8 3rd +4.5	−5.3	+11.3 54/84 best · 4 bold	−4.1	+2.1	+4.6
11	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State · Conference USA · 12 games	+26.3 ±11.8	+2.2	+16.7 3rd +1.2	+5.0	+2.7 66/100 best · 1 bold	−2.0	+0.6	+3.4
12	Sonny Dykes TCU · Big 12 · 13 games	+26.2 ±9.2	+2.0	+14.2 3rd +2.9	−1.8	+11.8 61/87 best · 6 bold	+1.2	+2.8	−1.9
13	Kirk Ferentz Iowa · Big Ten · 13 games	+23.8 ±13.8	+1.8	+34.2 3rd −0.6	+3.3	−17.6 51/86 best	+2.0	−2.4	+4.3
14	Greg Schiano Rutgers · Big Ten · 12 games	+23.4 ±9.6	+1.9	+2.0 3rd −1.5	+2.4	+23.1 62/85 best · 5 bold	+3.8	−10.0	+2.2
15	Major Applewhite South Alabama · Sun Belt · 12 games	+22.7 ±12.4	+1.9	+14.8 3rd +3.2	−0.2	+12.5 74/99 best · 8 bold	−6.6	+0.1	+2.1
16	Jason Eck New Mexico · Mountain West · 13 games	+21.0 ±8.3	+1.6	+3.5 3rd −0.7	+1.5	+25.5 67/89 best · 9 bold	−3.2	−5.9	−0.4
17	Lincoln Riley USC · Big Ten · 13 games	+21.0 ±10.9	+1.6	+3.0 3rd +1.2	+7.9	+9.0 52/67 best · 2 bold	−0.2	+0.3	+1.0
18	Chris Klieman Kansas State · Big 12 · 12 games	+20.5 ±9.4	+1.7	+2.1 3rd +2.2	−1.7	+19.0 67/97 best · 5 bold	+6.0	−5.4	+0.4
19	Matt Campbell Iowa State · Big 12 · 12 games	+20.2 ±8.9	+1.7	−4.9 3rd −0.9	+3.8	+11.0 55/89 best · 6 bold	−2.8	+2.2	+10.9
20	Michael Desormeaux Louisiana · Sun Belt · 13 games	+19.9 ±12.0	+1.5	+21.2 3rd +3.1	−3.0	+4.5 62/98 best · 2 bold	+1.3	−5.4	+1.3
21	Thomas Hammock Northern Illinois · Mid-American · 12 games	+19.5 ±16.4	+1.6	+29.0 3rd +6.3	−1.0	+13.3 70/111 best · 5 bold	−10.1	−11.3	−0.5
22	Ken Niumatalolo San José State · Mountain West · 12 games	+19.5 ±14.2	+1.6	+13.6 3rd +2.2	−2.9	−1.7 56/86 best · 4 bold	+6.5	+1.3	+2.6
23	Scott Satterfield Cincinnati · Big 12 · 13 games	+19.1 ±8.6	+1.5	+2.5 3rd −0.5	+0.1	+9.8 55/82 best · 4 bold	+4.6	+0.6	+1.5
24	Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh · ACC · 13 games	+18.1 ±9.1	+1.4	+6.9 3rd +1.4	+4.9	+5.6 80/111 best · 10 bold	−4.0	+1.9	+2.9
25	K.C. Keeler Temple · American Athletic · 12 games	+17.9 ±5.9	+1.5	0.0 3rd +3.2	−0.9	+9.3 48/90 best · 2 bold	+10.4	+0.1	−0.9
26	Bill O'Brien Boston College · ACC · 12 games	+17.6 ±8.3	+1.5	+9.4 3rd +1.2	+2.0	+2.0 57/97 best · 5 bold	+1.6	+1.1	+1.5
27	Jim Mora UConn · FBS Independents · 13 games	+16.1 ±9.7	+1.2	+10.3 3rd +2.8	−2.0	−11.0 59/94 best · 3 bold	+10.2	+4.0	+4.7
28	Timmy Chang Hawai'i · Mountain West · 13 games	+15.7 ±14.9	+1.2	+12.3 3rd +3.7	+1.4	−0.6 52/97 best · 1 bold	−1.7	−0.2	+4.5
29	Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic · American Athletic · 12 games	+15.0 ±6.9	+1.3	+2.7 3rd +0.9	−0.3	+8.8 85/105 best · 5 bold	+0.8	+0.9	+2.1
30	Dan Mullen UNLV · Mountain West · 14 games	+14.7 ±9.7	+1.1	+1.2 3rd −1.4	+2.7	+5.8 54/89 best · 2 bold	+5.9	−2.6	+1.9
31	Willie Simmons Florida International · Conference USA · 13 games	+14.6 ±9.6	+1.1	+6.7 3rd +0.9	−1.1	+15.4 82/115 best · 8 bold	−1.5	−0.7	−4.3
32	Brent Pry Virginia Tech · ACC · 12 games	+14.5 ±8.6	+1.2	+31.9 3rd +2.0	+0.4	−12.4 58/94 best	−2.8	−1.7	−0.9
33	Justin Wilcox California · ACC · 13 games	+14.3 ±14.5	+1.1	+14.1 3rd +3.6	+5.8	−1.4 71/103 best · 1 bold	−3.3	−4.6	+3.8
34	Dave Doeren NC State · ACC · 13 games	+14.3 ±9.0	+1.1	+6.7 3rd +2.7	−1.1	+11.9 69/94 best · 4 bold	−5.0	−2.8	+4.6
35	Mike Locksley Maryland · Big Ten · 12 games	+14.3 ±10.3	+1.2	+11.4 3rd +0.9	+1.3	+3.0 63/108 best · 3 bold	−2.3	−0.9	+1.8
36	Kirby Smart Georgia · SEC · 14 games	+13.3 ±7.5	+1.0	+5.9 3rd +3.3	+1.8	+6.6 57/89 best · 4 bold	−0.8	+2.6	−2.7
37	Tre Lamb Tulsa · American Athletic · 12 games	+13.0 ±10.6	+1.1	+0.9 3rd +0.1	−2.5	+18.5 77/113 best · 9 bold	−1.3	−6.0	+3.4
38	Dell McGee Georgia State · Sun Belt · 12 games	+12.9 ±7.4	+1.1	+5.3 3rd +1.1	−1.0	+6.4 73/106 best · 3 bold	−2.1	+5.6	−1.3
39	Mike Uremovich Ball State · Mid-American · 12 games	+12.2 ±6.3	+1.0	+2.9 3rd −0.4	+1.4	+10.0 70/105 best · 3 bold	−1.8	−0.9	+0.7
40	Clay Helton Georgia Southern · Sun Belt · 13 games	+12.0 ±10.5	+0.9	+8.1 3rd +0.2	+2.5	+3.8 51/90 best · 4 bold	−8.8	+2.5	+3.9
41	P.J. Fleck Minnesota · Big Ten · 13 games	+12.0 ±15.4	+0.9	+36.8 3rd +2.7	+2.6	−15.0 51/97 best	−6.8	−0.1	−5.4
42	Jon Sumrall Tulane · American Athletic · 14 games	+11.2 ±6.9	+0.8	+2.9 3rd +1.0	−2.5	+3.7 62/101 best · 2 bold	+0.7	+2.1	+4.3
43	Mark Stoops Kentucky · SEC · 12 games	+10.3 ±7.1	+0.9	+5.4 3rd +1.2	−1.2	+0.8 51/83 best · 2 bold	+2.1	+0.1	+3.1
44	David Braun Northwestern · Big Ten · 13 games	+10.0 ±6.0	+0.8	+5.5 3rd +2.1	+2.4	+4.2 66/91 best · 1 bold	−6.8	+1.6	+3.2
45	Sean Lewis San Diego State · Mountain West · 13 games	+10.0 ±11.0	+0.8	+10.3 3rd +3.4	−4.8	−15.8 73/114 best · 2 bold	+7.5	+8.3	+4.6
46	Scotty Walden UTEP · Conference USA · 12 games	+9.5 ±7.1	+0.8	+7.4 3rd +0.2	−7.8	+17.6 80/112 best · 9 bold	−5.8	−0.6	−1.4
47	Phil Longo Sam Houston · Conference USA · 12 games	+8.7 ±7.4	+0.7	+4.4 3rd −0.8	−3.3	+6.9 73/114 best · 4 bold	−0.4	−0.7	+1.9
48	Willie Fritz Houston · Big 12 · 13 games	+8.3 ±10.7	+0.6	−3.4 3rd −1.6	−0.2	+7.5 74/112 best · 2 bold	−3.6	+3.1	+4.9
49	Scott Abell Rice · American Athletic · 13 games	+8.2 ±13.6	+0.6	+1.9 3rd −0.4	0.0	+1.3 78/113 best · 1 bold	0.0	+0.5	+4.4
50	Jeff Traylor UTSA · American Athletic · 13 games	+7.1 ±7.7	+0.5	+0.1 3rd +1.3	+2.3	+12.6 72/101 best · 6 bold	−8.8	+1.5	−0.6
51	Marcus Freeman Notre Dame · FBS Independents · 12 games	+6.9 ±7.1	+0.6	+0.1 3rd +0.3	−0.6	+10.8 44/65 best · 4 bold	−6.4	+0.3	+2.7
52	Kyle Whittingham Utah · Big 12 · 13 games	+6.8 ±8.3	+0.5	+5.3 3rd +4.9	−0.7	+9.7 47/76 best · 3 bold	−0.3	−6.9	−0.3
53	Kalani Sitake BYU · Big 12 · 14 games	+6.7 ±9.1	+0.5	+7.7 3rd +1.4	−1.7	+5.8 60/101 best · 1 bold	−6.1	−0.1	+1.2
54	Mark Carney Kent State · Mid-American · 12 games	+6.7 ±6.9	+0.6	−2.6 3rd +0.5	−1.6	+21.5 65/104 best · 5 bold	−6.6	+1.2	−5.1
55	Mike Norvell Florida State · ACC · 12 games	+6.7 ±10.1	+0.6	+10.3 3rd +0.7	+1.6	−0.3 50/74 best · 4 bold	−4.6	+1.6	−1.9
56	Fran Brown Syracuse · ACC · 12 games	+6.5 ±6.8	+0.5	+0.9 3rd −0.2	+0.7	+6.2 75/109 best	−2.1	+1.6	−0.8
57	Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech · Conference USA · 13 games	+6.3 ±12.1	+0.5	+10.8 3rd +4.0	+1.1	−1.0 61/97 best · 2 bold	−8.1	−1.2	+4.8
58	Spencer Danielson Boise State · Mountain West · 14 games	+5.0 ±8.5	+0.4	+4.7 3rd +0.5	−1.5	+4.5 73/108 best · 1 bold	−0.2	−5.5	+3.0
59	Barry Odom Purdue · Big Ten · 12 games	+4.9 ±4.2	+0.4	+0.6 3rd +0.2	+0.5	+1.4 52/93 best · 3 bold	−0.5	+0.3	+2.7
60	Jay Norvell Colorado State · Mountain West · 12 games	+4.4 ±8.2	+0.4	+7.9 3rd +1.3	−3.3	+2.3 60/99 best · 6 bold	−6.0	+1.1	+2.4
61	Tim Albin Charlotte · American Athletic · 12 games	+4.2 ±5.4	+0.3	−0.1 3rd −0.5	+1.0	+2.7 64/105 best · 2 bold	−1.8	+0.3	+2.2
62	Tim Beck Coastal Carolina · Sun Belt · 13 games	+4.0 ±9.7	+0.3	+5.6 3rd −2.0	+2.0	−0.6 77/117 best · 1 bold	−2.3	−1.4	+0.7
63	G.J. Kinne Texas State · Sun Belt · 13 games	+3.7 ±8.4	+0.3	+0.4 3rd +0.1	−0.6	−2.4 49/85 best · 3 bold	+5.7	−1.3	+2.0
64	Brian Newberry Navy · American Athletic · 13 games	+2.9 ±17.2	+0.2	+1.2 3rd −0.3	−4.7	+6.4 49/74 best · 7 bold	−0.1	−2.4	+2.5
65	Deion Sanders Colorado · Big 12 · 12 games	+2.5 ±9.1	+0.2	+6.3 3rd +0.7	−2.2	+2.5 60/102 best · 3 bold	−5.4	−1.8	+3.0
66	Bret Bielema Illinois · Big Ten · 13 games	+2.4 ±6.1	+0.2	+2.4 3rd +1.5	+2.1	+5.5 59/81 best · 4 bold	+0.1	−4.8	−2.8
67	Bob Chesney James Madison · Sun Belt · 14 games	+2.3 ±5.5	+0.2	+4.6 3rd +0.5	+2.9	+3.0 63/88 best · 2 bold	−0.8	−1.7	−5.7
68	Jedd Fisch Washington · Big Ten · 13 games	+2.1 ±6.5	+0.2	+1.7 3rd +0.4	−1.2	+4.4 42/67 best · 2 bold	−4.1	−2.4	+3.8
69	Kenny Dillingham Arizona State · Big 12 · 13 games	+2.1 ±15.0	+0.2	−4.0 3rd 0.0	+1.5	+2.0 82/113 best · 7 bold	−3.4	+1.4	+4.7
70	Jeff Brohm Louisville · ACC · 13 games	+1.9 ±10.5	+0.1	−0.2 3rd −1.4	−2.8	−6.1 48/98 best · 2 bold	+10.7	+2.6	−2.4
71	Lance Leipold Kansas · Big 12 · 12 games	+1.6 ±10.1	+0.1	+11.5 3rd 0.0	+1.2	−0.5 52/83 best · 1 bold	−6.3	−6.1	+2.0
72	Steve Sarkisian Texas · SEC · 13 games	+1.5 ±8.6	+0.1	+3.3 3rd 0.0	+7.5	−4.6 65/102 best · 2 bold	−8.6	+2.2	+1.7
73	Ryan Day Ohio State · Big Ten · 14 games	+1.4 ±5.7	+0.1	+13.9 3rd +3.7	+1.4	−13.3 39/66 best	−2.9	+0.1	+2.4
74	Bronco Mendenhall Utah State · Mountain West · 13 games	+1.4 ±9.0	+0.1	−9.4 3rd −2.5	+5.3	+4.4 66/101 best · 3 bold	−1.7	+1.1	+1.7
75	Jeff Lebby Mississippi State · SEC · 13 games	+1.0 ±10.3	+0.1	+3.3 3rd −0.4	−5.6	+0.6 61/105 best · 3 bold	+7.5	−4.3	−0.4
76	Mario Cristobal Miami · ACC · 16 games	+0.7 ±9.4	0.0	+3.3 3rd +1.7	+4.7	−2.9 64/102 best	−2.8	−0.1	−1.4
77	Tyson Helton Western Kentucky · Conference USA · 13 games	+0.7 ±10.3	+0.1	+10.8 3rd −0.5	+0.9	−4.8 57/91 best · 2 bold	−8.6	−1.4	+3.8
78	Jay Sawvel Wyoming · Mountain West · 12 games	+0.5 ±6.6	0.0	+1.3 3rd +0.6	−0.8	−0.9 57/102 best · 3 bold	−2.7	+2.3	+1.4
79	Rich Rodriguez West Virginia · Big 12 · 12 games	+0.5 ±8.3	0.0	−0.5 3rd +0.9	−6.9	+7.6 79/119 best · 4 bold	−1.1	−1.3	+2.7
80	Dan Lanning Oregon · Big Ten · 15 games	+0.4 ±7.1	0.0	+1.0 3rd −1.1	+2.0	−12.5 59/90 best · 3 bold	+4.7	+3.1	+2.1
81	Joey McGuire Texas Tech · Big 12 · 14 games	+0.2 ±5.0	0.0	0.0 3rd −0.5	−3.4	+3.5 61/96 best · 3 bold	−0.3	−1.1	+1.6
82	Eddie George Bowling Green · Mid-American · 12 games	0.0 ±8.3	0.0	+5.2 3rd +1.3	−1.7	−4.3 54/103 best · 2 bold	+1.2	−0.3	−0.1
83	Trent Dilfer UAB · American Athletic · 12 games	−0.4 ±7.7	0.0	+1.0 3rd +1.1	+0.6	+1.6 61/82 best · 1 bold	−2.5	−2.1	+1.1
84	Bryant Vincent UL Monroe · Sun Belt · 12 games	−0.8 ±6.8	−0.1	−5.0 3rd −2.5	+2.4	+3.8 63/95 best · 4 bold	−5.2	+5.9	−2.7
85	Jimmy Rogers Washington State · Pac-12 · 13 games	−0.9 ±7.6	−0.1	+3.1 3rd +1.5	+3.0	+3.2 63/97 best · 2 bold	−7.2	−0.3	−2.7
86	Clark Lea Vanderbilt · SEC · 13 games	−1.2 ±10.1	−0.1	+3.4 3rd +0.6	−5.5	+6.8 37/57 best · 4 bold	−0.7	−3.4	−1.8
87	Frank Reich Stanford · ACC · 12 games	−1.4 ±6.3	−0.1	+6.6 3rd −2.0	+0.1	−1.5 72/103 best · 1 bold	−7.0	+0.3	+0.1
88	Ryan Silverfield Memphis · American Athletic · 13 games	−1.7 ±8.4	−0.1	−4.6 3rd +0.6	−5.1	+11.0 57/88 best · 4 bold	−3.0	−0.2	+0.2
89	Jonathan Smith Michigan State · Big Ten · 12 games	−2.1 ±5.3	−0.2	−3.3 3rd −0.8	+2.4	+6.0 67/96 best · 3 bold	−7.9	−0.5	+1.2
90	Tony Elliott Virginia · ACC · 14 games	−2.8 ±9.1	−0.2	+2.6 3rd −0.3	−7.5	+11.5 70/109 best · 5 bold	−10.1	−3.8	+4.4
91	Alex Golesh South Florida · American Athletic · 13 games	−3.5 ±7.5	−0.3	−2.6 3rd +0.5	+1.0	−2.8 60/88 best · 3 bold	−3.6	+0.6	+3.9
92	Eric Morris North Texas · American Athletic · 14 games	−3.5 ±6.4	−0.3	−2.3 3rd +0.5	−1.0	+2.8 59/82 best · 2 bold	−6.0	−0.8	+3.9
93	Blake Harrell East Carolina · American Athletic · 13 games	−3.9 ±6.0	−0.3	−3.1 3rd −1.2	+4.0	−1.6 74/98 best · 4 bold	−0.5	+0.4	−3.0
94	Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts · Mid-American · 12 games	−4.0 ±5.9	−0.3	+4.3 3rd +1.6	−0.6	+3.0 73/107 best · 1 bold	−13.0	−0.4	+2.8
95	Manny Diaz Duke · ACC · 14 games	−4.1 ±9.8	−0.3	+9.6 3rd +4.5	+5.0	+2.3 71/103 best · 11 bold	−8.7	−1.9	−10.4
96	Matt Rhule Nebraska · Big Ten · 13 games	−4.2 ±10.1	−0.3	+7.1 3rd +1.0	+0.3	−2.7 49/81 best · 3 bold	−7.0	−4.1	+2.2
97	Butch Jones Arkansas State · Sun Belt · 13 games	−4.9 ±8.9	−0.4	−9.2 3rd −2.9	+6.2	−5.4 69/112 best · 3 bold	−8.6	+4.7	+7.4
98	Josh Heupel Tennessee · SEC · 13 games	−5.0 ±7.1	−0.4	+1.4 3rd +1.7	+3.4	−6.5 46/72 best	−8.0	+0.2	+4.6
99	Brent Brennan Arizona · Big 12 · 13 games	−5.1 ±9.0	−0.4	−4.2 3rd −1.7	−1.0	−3.2 70/101 best · 7 bold	−0.7	+1.3	+2.8
100	Trent Bray Oregon State · Pac-12 · 12 games	−5.9 ±11.3	−0.5	+7.5 3rd +1.8	−2.4	−12.5 59/101 best	+3.2	−3.2	+1.5
101	Brian Smith Ohio · Mid-American · 13 games	−6.0 ±8.0	−0.5	+6.6 3rd +2.5	−0.1	+0.4 58/80 best · 1 bold	−7.8	+3.1	−8.2
102	Brian Kelly LSU · SEC · 13 games	−6.1 ±8.5	−0.5	+1.5 3rd +0.4	+2.2	−8.9 62/104 best · 1 bold	−5.7	+1.3	+3.5
103	Billy Napier Florida · SEC · 12 games	−7.1 ±8.8	−0.6	−0.4 3rd +0.6	+0.3	−4.8 49/89 best · 1 bold	−1.5	−1.8	+1.1
104	Pete Lembo Buffalo · Mid-American · 12 games	−7.4 ±9.1	−0.6	+4.9 3rd +1.0	−3.0	−11.0 66/104 best · 2 bold	+6.8	+0.9	−5.9
105	Hugh Freeze Auburn · SEC · 12 games	−7.8 ±9.1	−0.7	+2.2 3rd −2.7	−0.1	+2.6 65/94 best · 3 bold	−9.1	−4.9	+1.5
106	Ricky Rahne Old Dominion · Sun Belt · 13 games	−7.9 ±6.4	−0.6	−1.8 3rd −0.5	+1.8	−7.7 51/92 best · 1 bold	−2.7	−0.1	+2.5
107	Mike Elko Texas A&M · SEC · 13 games	−7.9 ±7.4	−0.6	+1.7 3rd −0.9	−3.8	−2.0 59/91 best · 1 bold	−7.2	+0.2	+3.2
108	Mike Gundy Oklahoma State · Big 12 · 12 games	−8.1 ±5.3	−0.7	−4.7 3rd −0.5	−2.3	+3.1 70/113 best · 1 bold	−4.9	+1.3	−0.5
109	Matt Drinkall Central Michigan · Mid-American · 13 games	−9.8 ±12.0	−0.8	−0.1 3rd +0.3	−0.2	+0.7 65/99 best · 1 bold	−5.8	−0.5	−4.0
110	Brent Key Georgia Tech · ACC · 13 games	−10.5 ±11.7	−0.8	−1.5 3rd −0.5	+1.8	−8.7 47/76 best · 3 bold	−8.1	−0.8	+6.9
111	Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan · Mid-American · 12 games	−11.1 ±7.8	−0.9	+0.5 3rd −1.3	+1.0	−0.3 49/90 best · 3 bold	−7.4	−0.9	−3.8
112	Jason Candle Toledo · Mid-American · 13 games	−11.3 ±5.0	−0.9	+1.1 3rd +0.7	−1.5	−8.9 58/95 best · 1 bold	−1.1	−1.4	+0.4
113	Sherrone Moore Michigan · Big Ten · 13 games	−12.5 ±7.6	−1.0	+3.7 3rd +1.1	−3.9	−5.4 46/83 best · 2 bold	−3.7	−5.1	+2.0
114	Sam Pittman Arkansas · SEC · 12 games	−12.8 ±7.3	−1.1	+5.0 3rd −0.8	−4.2	−3.7 43/66 best · 2 bold	−12.3	−2.1	+4.4
115	Tony Gibson Marshall · Sun Belt · 12 games	−13.3 ±10.2	−1.1	−2.8 3rd +0.8	+1.8	−15.5 52/98 best	−2.5	−0.5	+6.2
116	Scott Frost UCF · Big 12 · 12 games	−13.4 ±6.7	−1.1	−2.8 3rd −1.7	+0.7	−5.1 76/104 best · 1 bold	−8.3	−0.1	+2.2
117	Troy Calhoun Air Force · Mountain West · 12 games	−13.9 ±22.8	−1.2	−26.9 3rd −7.0	−1.1	+18.2 51/70 best · 4 bold	−5.6	−1.5	+3.0
118	Curt Cignetti Indiana · Big Ten · 16 games	−14.1 ±9.3	−0.9	−1.4 3rd −0.1	+4.3	−2.6 46/78 best · 1 bold	−9.4	−4.0	−1.1
119	Chuck Martin Miami (OH) · Mid-American · 14 games	−14.2 ±7.0	−1.0	+0.6 3rd +1.3	+1.8	−10.9 58/107 best · 2 bold	−3.8	−2.3	+0.5
120	Brent Venables Oklahoma · SEC · 13 games	−15.4 ±9.8	−1.2	+4.6 3rd −1.3	−2.9	−4.2 61/103 best · 1 bold	−7.8	−2.1	−3.1
121	Jamey Chadwell Liberty · Conference USA · 12 games	−16.0 ±14.5	−1.3	+18.6 3rd +0.5	+1.8	+3.1 54/88 best · 2 bold	−6.8	−17.1	−15.7
122	Shane Beamer South Carolina · SEC · 12 games	−16.2 ±7.7	−1.3	−1.4 3rd +0.1	−0.5	−5.6 63/99 best · 1 bold	−11.5	−0.3	+3.1
123	Matt Entz Fresno State · Mountain West · 13 games	−16.2 ±10.0	−1.2	+2.7 3rd −0.1	−1.6	−12.6 63/99 best · 4 bold	−2.7	−0.1	−1.8
124	Jake Dickert Wake Forest · ACC · 13 games	−16.9 ±9.1	−1.3	−1.4 3rd −0.4	−3.3	−5.6 75/108 best · 3 bold	−3.4	−6.1	+2.9
125	Luke Fickell Wisconsin · Big Ten · 12 games	−16.9 ±7.6	−1.4	+5.8 3rd +2.3	−4.9	−13.6 43/99 best · 1 bold	−3.6	−1.0	+0.4
126	Ryan Beard Missouri State · Conference USA · 13 games	−17.7 ±7.9	−1.4	+2.5 3rd −0.4	−7.1	−11.2 50/90 best · 3 bold	−4.4	+0.7	+1.8
127	Derek Mason Middle Tennessee · Conference USA · 12 games	−18.4 ±9.2	−1.5	+2.8 3rd +1.0	0.0	+4.2 61/103 best · 3 bold	−24.3	−0.7	−0.4
128	Jerry Mack Kennesaw State · Conference USA · 14 games	−18.5 ±10.2	−1.3	−4.0 3rd −0.1	−6.4	−0.6 65/109 best · 3 bold	−9.0	−1.5	+3.1
129	Gerad Parker Troy · Sun Belt · 14 games	−18.8 ±12.7	−1.3	+7.4 3rd +1.5	−1.2	+15.5 88/120 best · 8 bold	−11.2	−4.8	−24.6
130	Deshaun Foster UCLA · Big Ten · 12 games	−20.0 ±8.4	−1.7	+4.8 3rd −0.2	−0.2	−4.9 55/92 best · 2 bold	−3.6	−0.9	−15.3
131	Dabo Swinney Clemson · ACC · 13 games	−21.4 ±10.3	−1.6	+2.6 3rd +0.9	−7.7	−10.3 67/111 best · 1 bold	−7.0	−0.4	+1.4
132	Charles Huff Southern Miss · Sun Belt · 13 games	−22.1 ±6.0	−1.7	−2.6 3rd −0.8	+0.2	−8.7 56/105 best · 1 bold	−11.1	−0.1	+0.3
133	Bill Belichick North Carolina · ACC · 12 games	−22.4 ±6.4	−1.9	+4.6 3rd +2.7	−3.0	−16.0 47/95 best	−1.0	+0.2	−7.1
134	Dowell Loggains App State · Sun Belt · 13 games	−23.1 ±9.5	−1.8	−5.3 3rd −1.2	−2.0	−6.4 75/109 best · 1 bold	−4.1	−8.9	+3.5
135	James Franklin Penn State · Big Ten · 13 games	−28.0 ±9.7	−2.2	−2.9 3rd +0.1	+1.1	+8.4 61/84 best · 7 bold	−38.0	0.0	+3.3
136	Joe Moorhead Akron · Mid-American · 12 games	−37.1 ±8.6	−3.1	−1.0 3rd −0.8	+4.9	−7.6 63/104 best · 1 bold	−12.1	+1.2	−22.5

Does a coaching grade repeat?

Part	Within a season	Season to season	Reads as
Whole grade	0.40n=270 · 0.13 to 0.36	0.11n=104 · -0.09 to 0.29	some of it is the staff
Play calling	0.62n=270 · 0.35 to 0.54	-0.10n=104 · -0.29 to 0.10	largely the staff
Passing strategy	0.10n=270 · -0.07 to 0.17	—	mostly the games, not the staff
Fourth downs	0.45n=270 · 0.17 to 0.39	0.32n=104 · 0.14 to 0.48	some of it is the staff
Clock & timeouts	0.20n=270 · -0.01 to 0.23	0.02n=104 · -0.17 to 0.22	mostly the games, not the staff
Personnel usage	0.74n=270 · 0.51 to 0.67	—	largely the staff
Operations	0.03n=270 · -0.11 to 0.13	0.05n=104 · -0.15 to 0.24	mostly the games, not the staff

Correlations with 95% intervals; n is staffs. Seasons up to 2025 are graded with a model fit on 2017-2025; 2026 is out of sample.

What the grade tested before trusting it

Riding the hot hand. A player's production earlier in a game told us nothing about the rest of it, once his season level was known (960 running back games, 239 receiver games). So chasing a hot hand is not rewarded, and not chasing one is not punished.
Wearing out a back. Past his 20th carry, a back runs 0.08 expected points per carry below his own season level. Those carries count against the staff's usage grade.
A timeout spent early. A second-half timeout that reaches the last four minutes is worth 0.24 points of win probability on average, across every game, close or not. That is what one burned in the third quarter costs.

Each game’s recap carries the full list of graded calls.