Central Connecticut vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CENTTeam statsTOL
- Q4 3:42TOLCooper Rusk 40 Yd pass from Walter Moses (Reice Griffith Kick)10–63
- Q4 12:40CENTMel Jacobs 14 Yd Interception Return (Jack Hennessey Kick)10–56
- Q3 1:00TOLKhamoni Robinson 38 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)3–56
- Q3 5:16TOLConnor Walendzak 1 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)3–49
- Q3 9:49TOLAdjatay Dabbs 4 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)3–42
- Q2 1:23TOLHayden Roy 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Reice Griffith Kick)3–35
- Q2 8:35TOLCJ Miller 14 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)3–28
- Q2 12:07TOLAutavius Ison 3 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:52TOLRico Bond 85 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)3–14
- Q1 10:57TOLConnor Walendzak 4 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)3–7
- Q1 14:36CENTJack Hennessey 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = CENT ahead, below = TOL ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassConner Kenyon 8/15, 40 YDS
- RushBrett Griffis 5 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecDamani Williams 4 REC, 21 YDS
- PassJohn Alan Richter 15/24, 252 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCJ Miller 9 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRico Bond 4 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Connecticut vs. Toledo?
Central Connecticut 10, Toledo 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| CENT | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 139 | Total yards | 569 |
| 66 | Passing yards | 313 |
| 73 | Rushing yards | 256 |
| 7 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/33 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 2.0 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-23 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 25:57 | Possession | 34:03 |
- Q4 3:42TOLCooper Rusk 40 Yd pass from Walter Moses (Reice Griffith Kick)10–63
- Q4 12:40CENTMel Jacobs 14 Yd Interception Return (Jack Hennessey Kick)10–56
- Q3 1:00TOLKhamoni Robinson 38 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)3–56
- Q3 5:16TOLConnor Walendzak 1 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)3–49
- Q3 9:49TOLAdjatay Dabbs 4 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)3–42
- Q2 1:23TOLHayden Roy 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Reice Griffith Kick)3–35
- Q2 8:35TOLCJ Miller 14 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)3–28
- Q2 12:07TOLAutavius Ison 3 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:52TOLRico Bond 85 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)3–14
- Q1 10:57TOLConnor Walendzak 4 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)3–7
- Q1 14:36CENTJack Hennessey 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -32.8 (97% to win) — 3.7 points clear of CENT's market line of -36.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →