Wagner vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAGNTeam statsJMU
- Q4 0:22JMUPhoenix Donghia 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–87
- Q4 6:48JMUMiles Halbert 44 Yd pass from Arrington Maiden (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–80
- Q4 14:39JMUKD Mosley 20 Yd pass from Arrington Maiden (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–73
- Q3 1:52JMUMorgan Suarez 46 Yd Field Goal 3–66
- Q3 8:22JMUZa'Ron Collins 18 Yd pass from Camden Coleman (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–63
- Q3 12:04JMUMichael Scott 69 Yd Punt Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–56
- Q3 14:20JMUNick Herman 77 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–49
- Q2 1:00JMUMichael Scott 76 Yd Punt Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–42
- Q2 7:59JMUNick Herman 15 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–35
- Q2 13:09JMUGeorge Pettaway 32 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–28
- Q1 1:16JMUGeorge Pettaway 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–21
- Q1 7:46JMUGeorge Pettaway 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–14
- Q1 9:01WAGNJohnny DiSalvatore 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:31JMUMiles Halbert 9 Yd Punt Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WAGN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassBenjamin Newman 11/20, 101 YDS
- RushUriah Moats-Maynard 14 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecZion Fowler-El 4 REC, 45 YDS
- PassCamden Coleman 12/18, 171 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNick Herman 8 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCorey Scott 3 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 63 entering the 4th quarter. Across 100 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Wagner vs. James Madison?
Wagner 3, James Madison 87.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| WAGN | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 204 | Total yards | 588 |
| 118 | Passing yards | 298 |
| 86 | Rushing yards | 290 |
| 10 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 5-8 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/27 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 8.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-65 | Penalties | 6-70 |
| 37:24 | Possession | 22:36 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:40 WAGN punt on 4th & 14 at JMU 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:22JMUPhoenix Donghia 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–87
- Q4 6:48JMUMiles Halbert 44 Yd pass from Arrington Maiden (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–80
- Q4 14:39JMUKD Mosley 20 Yd pass from Arrington Maiden (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–73
- Q3 1:52JMUMorgan Suarez 46 Yd Field Goal 3–66
- Q3 8:22JMUZa'Ron Collins 18 Yd pass from Camden Coleman (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–63
- Q3 12:04JMUMichael Scott 69 Yd Punt Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–56
- Q3 14:20JMUNick Herman 77 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–49
- Q2 1:00JMUMichael Scott 76 Yd Punt Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–42
- Q2 7:59JMUNick Herman 15 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–35
- Q2 13:09JMUGeorge Pettaway 32 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–28
- Q1 1:16JMUGeorge Pettaway 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–21
- Q1 7:46JMUGeorge Pettaway 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)3–14
- Q1 9:01WAGNJohnny DiSalvatore 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:31JMUMiles Halbert 9 Yd Punt Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -40.8 (99% to win) — 5.6 points clear of WAGN's market line of -46.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →