Alabama A&M vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Alabama A&M

03

Auburn

▸0073

Final

Jordan-Hare Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ALAB	0	3	0	0	3
AUB	28	24	14	7	73

ALABTeam statsAUB

240Total yards628

204Pass451

36Rush177

13First downs18

2-163rd down4-6

0Turnovers2

36:34Possession13:26

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:09AUBSam Jackson V 37 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Towns McGough Kick)3–73
• Q3 1:40AUBMalcolm Simmons 57 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Towns McGough Kick)3–66
• Q3 8:25AUBMalcolm Simmons 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Towns McGough Kick)3–59
• Q2 0:51AUBDamari Alston 2 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)3–52
• Q2 3:22AUBPayton Thorne 4 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)3–45
• Q2 6:00ALABAustin McCready 43 Yd Field Goal 3–38
• Q2 10:10AUBPerry Thompson 70 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–38
• Q2 13:48AUBTowns McGough 32 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q1 2:00AUBKeAndre Lambert-Smith 4 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–28
• Q1 11:39AUBCam Coleman 44 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–21
• Q1 12:47AUBKeAndre Lambert-Smith 67 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:13AUBJarquez Hunter 34 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

AUB −48.5

Against the number

AUB covered

line AUB −48.5

What the numbers say

• ALAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AUB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 4.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

AUB 100%50%ALAB 100%

Kickoff136 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

AUB (top)ALAB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: AUB 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

AUB −48.5

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

ALAB 3 – 73 AUB

Leaders

Alabama A&M

• PassCornelious Brown IV 13/27, 182 YDS
• RushRyan Morrow 5 CAR, 18 YDS
• RecDuke Miller 6 REC, 92 YDS

Auburn

• PassPayton Thorne 13/21, 322 YDS, 4 TD
• RushJarquez Hunter 4 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMalcolm Simmons 3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

117

Points / snap

0.65

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

AUB up 63 entering the 4th quarter. Across 98 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

AUB went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Tulsa69-10WSMU vs Prairie View A&M69-0WSouth Alabama vs Northwestern State87-10WCentral Arkansas vs Texas College70-2WDavidson vs Laurinburg84-6

Fourth downs

16 calls

ALAB gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.ALAB 9/13 · AUB 1/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Alabama A&M vs. Auburn?

Alabama A&M 3, Auburn 73.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ALAB

AUB

27%

Success rate

61%

0.17

EPA / pass

1.05

-0.40

EPA / rush

0.62

29%

Early-down success

61%

33%

Pass success

56%

21%

Rush success

71%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

30%

36%

Stuffed rush rate

0%

55%

Pass rate

61%

8.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.7

ALAB

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

AUB

4.7 yards to go on 3rd down

44 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ALAB		AUB
240	Total yards	628
204	Passing yards	451
36	Rushing yards	177
13	First downs	18
2-16	3rd down	4-6
1-2	4th down	0-0
16/34	Comp/Att	18/28
6.0	Yards per pass	16.1
1.0	Yards per rush	9.8
0	Turnovers	2
7-60	Penalties	5-60
36:34	Possession	13:26

Fourth downs

16 calls

ALAB

9/13 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

AUB

1/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 10:48 ALAB go for it on 4th & 7 at AUB 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.70 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ALAB 2/15 scoring drives← own end zone →AUB 10/13 scoring drives

AUBTD4 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

ALABPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

AUBTD1 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1

ALABPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

AUBTD1 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q1

ALABMISS8 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q1

AUBPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q1

ALABPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 35Q1

AUBTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

ALABPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1

AUBFG4 pl, 7 yds· opp 21Q2

ALABDOWNS7 pl, 45 yds· own 37Q2

AUBTD2 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2

ALABFG11 pl, 57 yds· own 17Q2

AUBTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

ALABPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 13Q2

AUBTD6 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q2

ALABEND2 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

ALABTD3 pl, 7 yds· own 14Q3

ALABMISS12 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q3

AUBTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3

ALABPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3

AUBTD3 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q4

ALABPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 20Q4

AUBFUM1 pl, 24 yds· opp 43Q4

ALABPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 23Q4

AUBFUM5 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q4

ALABEND3 pl, 14 yds· own 44Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:09AUBSam Jackson V 37 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Towns McGough Kick)3–73
• Q3 1:40AUBMalcolm Simmons 57 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Towns McGough Kick)3–66
• Q3 8:25AUBMalcolm Simmons 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Towns McGough Kick)3–59
• Q2 0:51AUBDamari Alston 2 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)3–52
• Q2 3:22AUBPayton Thorne 4 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)3–45
• Q2 6:00ALABAustin McCready 43 Yd Field Goal 3–38
• Q2 10:10AUBPerry Thompson 70 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–38
• Q2 13:48AUBTowns McGough 32 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q1 2:00AUBKeAndre Lambert-Smith 4 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–28
• Q1 11:39AUBCam Coleman 44 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–21
• Q1 12:47AUBKeAndre Lambert-Smith 67 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Towns McGough Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:13AUBJarquez Hunter 34 Yd Run (Towns McGough Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →