Prairie View A&M vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Prairie View A&M

00

SMU1-1

▸0069

Final

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
PRAI	0	0	0	0	0
SMU	14	28	21	6	69

PRAITeam statsSMU

156Total yards566

62Pass389

94Rush177

10First downs28

4-153rd down5-7

0Turnovers1

34:14Possession25:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:18SMUCamar Wheaton 3 Yd Run (Collin Rogers PAT blocked)0–69
• Q3 5:46SMUJoey Bruszer 23 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)0–63
• Q3 11:02SMUKey'Shawn Smith 27 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)0–56
• Q3 14:34SMUJordan Kerley 59 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–49
• Q2 0:05SMUJordan Kerley 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–42
• Q2 3:44SMURomello Brinson 5 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–35
• Q2 8:23SMUPreston Stone 5 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)0–28
• Q2 14:40SMURoderick Daniels Jr. 91 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:13SMUChris Megginson 53 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:17SMUJordan Hudson 15 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

SMU −42.5

Against the number

SMU covered

line SMU −42.5

What the numbers say

• PRAI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SMU 100%50%PRAI 100%

Kickoff144 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SMU (top)PRAI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SMU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SMU −42.5

Closing total

63.5

Model line

—

Actual result

PRAI 0 – 69 SMU

Leaders

Prairie View A&M

• PassTrazon Connley 6/14, 51 YDS
• RushRonald Young Jr. 7 CAR, 32 YDS
• RecKhris Simmons 3 REC, 25 YDS

SMU

• PassPreston Stone 15/20, 300 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
• RushCamar Wheaton 16 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
• RecRoderick Daniels Jr. 3 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.57

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SMU up 63 entering the 4th quarter. Across 97 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SMU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Tulsa69-10WAuburn vs Alabama A&M73-3WSouth Alabama vs Northwestern State87-10WCentral Arkansas vs Texas College70-2WDavidson vs Laurinburg84-6

Fourth downs

12 calls

PRAI gave up 2.1 points to the model on fourth down.PRAI 8/11 · SMU 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Prairie View A&M vs. SMU?

Prairie View A&M 0, SMU 69.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

PRAI

SMU

20%

Success rate

56%

-0.15

EPA / pass

1.36

-0.15

EPA / rush

0.16

16%

Early-down success

54%

27%

Pass success

59%

16%

Rush success

53%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

22%

Stuffed rush rate

3%

37%

Pass rate

43%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

PRAI

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

SMU

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

PRAI		SMU
156	Total yards	566
62	Passing yards	389
94	Rushing yards	177
10	First downs	28
4-15	3rd down	5-7
0-0	4th down	0-0
7/17	Comp/Att	20/26
3.6	Yards per pass	15.0
2.4	Yards per rush	4.7
0	Turnovers	1
9-94	Penalties	7-68
34:14	Possession	25:46

Fourth downs

12 calls

PRAI

8/11 with the model

−2.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

SMU

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 10:49 PRAI punt on 4th & 3 at SMU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

PRAI 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →SMU 9/11 scoring drives

PRAIPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

SMUTD7 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1

PRAITD13 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q1

PRAIPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1

SMUINT2 pl, 1 yds· own 41Q1

PRAIPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· opp 49Q1

SMUTD1 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q2

PRAIPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2

SMUTD8 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

PRAIPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

SMUTD8 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

PRAIPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q2

SMUTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

PRAIEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

SMUTD2 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3

PRAIPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3

SMUTD5 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3

PRAIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 16Q3

SMUTD7 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3

PRAIPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

SMUTD9 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

PRAIPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 30Q4

SMUPUNT7 pl, 31 yds· own 15Q4

PRAIEND9 pl, 47 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:18SMUCamar Wheaton 3 Yd Run (Collin Rogers PAT blocked)0–69
• Q3 5:46SMUJoey Bruszer 23 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)0–63
• Q3 11:02SMUKey'Shawn Smith 27 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)0–56
• Q3 14:34SMUJordan Kerley 59 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–49
• Q2 0:05SMUJordan Kerley 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–42
• Q2 3:44SMURomello Brinson 5 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–35
• Q2 8:23SMUPreston Stone 5 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)0–28
• Q2 14:40SMURoderick Daniels Jr. 91 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:13SMUChris Megginson 53 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:17SMUJordan Hudson 15 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →