St. Andrews vs. Davidson: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

St. Andrews

06

Davidson1-2

▸0084

Final

Richardson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ST.	0	6	0	0	6
DAVI	14	35	14	21	84

ST. Team statsDAVI

90Total yards720

-25Pass253

115Rush467

6First downs35

0-93rd down8-10

2Turnovers0

25:36Possession34:24

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:21DAVIIsaiah Sepand 2 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–84
• Q4 8:01DAVITahir Henry 12 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–77
• Q4 13:39DAVIRobert Lamar 11 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–70
• Q3 5:07DAVILJ Phillips Jr. 13 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–63
• Q3 12:12DAVIDaniel Harrington 17 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Craig Kick)6–56
• Q2 1:52DAVIMari Adams 5 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)6–49
• Q2 2:35DAVIMason Sheron 10 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)6–42
• Q2 3:27ST. Darius Holly 75 Yd Run (Diego Barahona PAT failed)6–35
• Q2 3:45DAVIAaron Maione 29 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–35
• Q2 7:53DAVIAaron Maione 26 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:32DAVIMaxwell Weaver 28 Yd pass from Coulter Cleland (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:32DAVIWill Cox 1 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:35DAVISam Hedrick 12 Yd pass from Coulter Cleland (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• ST. played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DAVI did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ST. aheadDAVI ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ST. ahead, below = DAVI ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

Leaders

St. Andrews

• PassDarius Holly 0/1, 0 YDS
• RushDarius Holly 7 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD

Davidson

• PassCoulter Cleland 10/11, 149 YDS, 2 TD
• RushWill Cox 5 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMaxwell Weaver 2 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

32.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

110

Points / snap

0.82

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DAVI up 57 entering the 4th quarter. Across 40 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

DAVI went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10WArkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff70-0WUConn vs Merrimack63-17WLindenwood vs St. Thomas (MN)64-0WJackson State vs Lane College58-7

Fourth downs

11 calls

ST. gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.ST. 7/8 · DAVI 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of St. Andrews vs. Davidson?

St. Andrews 6, Davidson 84.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (DAVI) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ST.

DAVI

21%

Success rate

78%

-0.67

EPA / pass

1.04

0.01

EPA / rush

0.81

28%

Early-down success

77%

17%

Pass success

90%

22%

Rush success

74%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

22%

9%

Stuffed rush rate

0%

16%

Pass rate

26%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

ST.

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

38 scrimmage snaps

DAVI

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ST.		DAVI
90	Total yards	720
-25	Passing yards	253
115	Rushing yards	467
6	First downs	35
0-9	3rd down	8-10
0-0	4th down	1-1
0/1	Comp/Att	16/18
0.0	Yards per pass	14.1
3.1	Yards per rush	8.8
2	Turnovers	0
5-35	Penalties	6-60
25:36	Possession	34:24

Fourth downs

11 calls

ST.

7/8 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

DAVI

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 9:48 ST. punt on 4th & 6 at DAVI 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.15 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ST. 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →DAVI 11/12 scoring drives

ST. PUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

DAVITD8 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

ST. PUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1

DAVITD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

ST. PUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1

DAVITD3 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q2

ST. PUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 18Q2

DAVITD7 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

ST. PUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

DAVITD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

ST. END3 pl, 12 yds· own 23Q2

ST. TD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

DAVITD2 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q2

ST. FUM1 pl, -9 yds· own 17Q2

DAVITD2 pl, 8 yds· opp 8Q2

DAVIMISS5 pl, 62 yds· own 21Q3

ST. TD1 pl, -3 yds· own 20Q3

ST. PUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 35Q3

DAVITD9 pl, 80 yds· own 19Q3

ST. PUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 31Q3

DAVITD8 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

ST. PUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 18Q4

DAVITD6 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4

ST. PUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 9Q4

DAVITD7 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q4

ST. END2 pl, 14 yds· own 40Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:21DAVIIsaiah Sepand 2 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–84
• Q4 8:01DAVITahir Henry 12 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–77
• Q4 13:39DAVIRobert Lamar 11 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–70
• Q3 5:07DAVILJ Phillips Jr. 13 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)6–63
• Q3 12:12DAVIDaniel Harrington 17 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Craig Kick)6–56
• Q2 1:52DAVIMari Adams 5 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)6–49
• Q2 2:35DAVIMason Sheron 10 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)6–42
• Q2 3:27ST. Darius Holly 75 Yd Run (Diego Barahona PAT failed)6–35
• Q2 3:45DAVIAaron Maione 29 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–35
• Q2 7:53DAVIAaron Maione 26 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:32DAVIMaxwell Weaver 28 Yd pass from Coulter Cleland (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:32DAVIWill Cox 1 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:35DAVISam Hedrick 12 Yd pass from Coulter Cleland (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →