Lane College vs. Jackson State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lane College

07

Jackson State0-1

▸0058

Final

Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LANE	0	0	0	7	7
JACK	31	17	10	0	58

LANETeam statsJACK

106Total yards434

31Pass250

75Rush184

10First downs16

1-143rd down4-7

2Turnovers0

28:18Possession31:42

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:01LANEIke Brown 2 Yd Run (Marcelo Ortiz Kick)7–58
• Q3 5:26JACKGerardo Baeza 23 Yd Field Goal 0–58
• Q3 9:04JACKIsaiah Spencer 55 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–55
• Q2 0:00JACKGerardo Baeza 35 Yd Field Goal 0–48
• Q2 6:36JACKKobe Paul 4 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–45
• Q2 11:42JACKJoanes Fortilien 28 Yd pass from Cam'Ron McCoy (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–38
• Q1 0:00JACKCam'Ron McCoy 60 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–31
• Q1 2:06JACKGerardo Baeza 38 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 6:18JACKAhmad Miller 6 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:17JACKMarvin Landy 1 Yd pass from Cam'Ron McCoy (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:20JACKCam'Ron McCoy 20 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• LANE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JACK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 6.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

JACK 100%50%LANE 100%

Kickoff125 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

JACK (top)LANE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JACK 100%

Leaders

Lane College

• PassJerick Gaston 2/9, 21 YDS
• RushIke Brown 10 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKylan Duhe 1 REC, 11 YDS

Jackson State

• PassJaCobian Morgan 9/11, 150 YDS, 2 TD
• RushCam'Ron McCoy 6 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
• RecIsaiah Spencer 4 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

34.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

104

Points / snap

0.63

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JACK up 58 entering the 4th quarter. Across 77 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

JACK went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLindenwood vs St. Thomas (MN)64-0WOle Miss vs Mercer73-7WCoastal Carolina vs Duquesne66-7WDavidson vs Laurinburg84-6WArkansas-Pine Bluff vs Little Rock59-0

Fourth downs

15 calls

LANE gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.LANE 9/12 · JACK 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lane College vs. Jackson State?

Lane College 7, Jackson State 58.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JACK) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LANE

JACK

21%

Success rate

55%

-0.37

EPA / pass

0.71

0.06

EPA / rush

0.41

23%

Early-down success

56%

14%

Pass success

60%

28%

Rush success

52%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

45%

Stuffed rush rate

26%

49%

Pass rate

43%

9.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

LANE

9.8 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

JACK

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

47 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LANE		JACK
106	Total yards	434
31	Passing yards	250
75	Rushing yards	184
10	First downs	16
1-14	3rd down	4-7
2-5	4th down	0-0
6/23	Comp/Att	14/20
1.3	Yards per pass	12.5
2.3	Yards per rush	7.1
2	Turnovers	0
4-30	Penalties	7-54
28:18	Possession	31:42

Fourth downs

15 calls

LANE

9/12 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

JACK

2/3 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 0:39 LANE go for it on 4th & 24 at JACK 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.56 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LANE 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →JACK 10/13 scoring drives

LANEPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

JACKTD1 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q1

LANEPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 18Q1

JACKTD4 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q1

LANEPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

JACKTD5 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

LANEPUNT3 pl, -18 yds· own 31Q1

JACKFG4 pl, -2 yds· opp 26Q1

LANEPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 28Q1

JACKTD3 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

LANEPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2

JACKTD3 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

LANEDOWNS5 pl, 24 yds· own 32Q2

JACKTD8 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q2

LANEDOWNS5 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q2

JACKPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 46Q2

LANEPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 4Q2

JACKFG3 pl, 13 yds· opp 38Q2

JACKTD2 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

LANEINT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

JACKFG6 pl, 41 yds· opp 46Q3

LANEDOWNS10 pl, 18 yds· own 45Q3

JACKPUNT2 pl, -22 yds· own 37Q3

LANETD9 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ4

JACKEND5 pl, 37 yds· own 36Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:01LANEIke Brown 2 Yd Run (Marcelo Ortiz Kick)7–58
• Q3 5:26JACKGerardo Baeza 23 Yd Field Goal 0–58
• Q3 9:04JACKIsaiah Spencer 55 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–55
• Q2 0:00JACKGerardo Baeza 35 Yd Field Goal 0–48
• Q2 6:36JACKKobe Paul 4 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–45
• Q2 11:42JACKJoanes Fortilien 28 Yd pass from Cam'Ron McCoy (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–38
• Q1 0:00JACKCam'Ron McCoy 60 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–31
• Q1 2:06JACKGerardo Baeza 38 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q1 6:18JACKAhmad Miller 6 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:17JACKMarvin Landy 1 Yd pass from Cam'Ron McCoy (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:20JACKCam'Ron McCoy 20 Yd Run (Gerardo Baeza Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →