Western Carolina vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WESTTeam statsCIN
- Q4 0:43CINSamaj Jones 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–62
- Q4 11:51CINLiam O'Brien 11 Yd Run (Max Lemasters PAT failed)10–55
- Q3 2:02CINZylan Perry 40 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–49
- Q3 5:03CINGi'Bran Payne 17 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–42
- Q3 9:10CINGi'Bran Payne 40 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–35
- Q2 0:38CINZion Johnson 3 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–28
- Q2 3:00CINCole Tabb 36 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:23WESTLex Thomas 1 Yd Run (Bryan McCollum Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:35CINLyviel Waters 2 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:34CINJV Gibson 5 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:57WESTBryan McCollum 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassLex Thomas 23/32, 165 YDS
- RushMarlin Cochran 3 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecJake Young 5 REC, 49 YDS
- PassJC French IV 21/24, 245 YDS, 2 TD
- RushGi'Bran Payne 12 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMalachi Henry 3 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Carolina vs. Cincinnati?
Western Carolina 10, Cincinnati 62.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
| WEST | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 241 | Total yards | 690 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 272 |
| 74 | Rushing yards | 418 |
| 13 | First downs | 32 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 8-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/37 | Comp/Att | 28/31 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 8.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 11-105 |
| 27:23 | Possession | 32:37 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:26 CIN go for it on 4th & 10 at WEST 18. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:43CINSamaj Jones 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–62
- Q4 11:51CINLiam O'Brien 11 Yd Run (Max Lemasters PAT failed)10–55
- Q3 2:02CINZylan Perry 40 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–49
- Q3 5:03CINGi'Bran Payne 17 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–42
- Q3 9:10CINGi'Bran Payne 40 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–35
- Q2 0:38CINZion Johnson 3 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–28
- Q2 3:00CINCole Tabb 36 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:23WESTLex Thomas 1 Yd Run (Bryan McCollum Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:35CINLyviel Waters 2 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:34CINJV Gibson 5 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:57WESTBryan McCollum 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -34.6 (98% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →