Fordham vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FORDTeam statsCCU
- Q4 10:57CCUJ. Allen-Hendrix run for 5 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–45
- Q3 0:15CCUN. Cavanillas Alti 56 yd FG GOOD7–38
- Q3 9:15CCUD. Lee-Knicely run for 18 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–35
- Q2 0:39CCUD. Bailey pass to C. Coppock Jr. for 12 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–28
- Q2 5:01CCUD. Bailey pass to R. Washington for 23 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–21
- Q2 11:11CCUD. Bailey pass to C. Hinton for 65 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–14
- Q2 13:09FORDG. Smith pass to N. Tracy for 6 yds, for a TD (B. Henderson KICK)7–7
- Q1 10:09CCUD. Lee-Knicely run for 5 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU started drives roughly 16 yards closer than FORD — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 41 vs own 25
- FORD kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. 0.9 pts per trip vs 4.5
- CCU won this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against FORD. +0.13 vs -0.21 EPA/play
- PassGunnar Smith 9/20, 101 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushGunnar Smith 11 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecNodin Tracy 4 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDeuce Bailey 12/25, 203 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJaden Allen-Hendrix 7 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RecColton Hinton 3 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- Q2 11:11CCU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete deep middle to #14 C.Hinton caught at FOR25, for 65 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:48FORD +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Washington rush left for 8 yards gain to the CCU30 (#12 A.Osmun; #15 J.Johnson)
- Q1 10:09CCU +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Lee-Knicely rush right for 5 yards gain to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 5:01CCU +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Bailey pass complete deep right to #1 R.Washington caught at FOR00, for 23 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Fordham vs. Coastal Carolina?
Fordham 7, Coastal Carolina 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CCU) was correct.
| FORD | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Total yards | 460 |
| 101 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 251 |
| 11 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 9/21 | Comp/Att | 13/28 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 30:05 | Possession | 29:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:22 CCU punt on 4th & 3 at CCU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
- CCUEnd Of Quarter5 plays · 21 yds · from CCU 37 · Q4 2:00−0.5 EPA
- FORDPunt3 plays · 8 yds · from FORD 4 · Q4 4:13−0.3 EPA
- CCUPunt5 plays · 7 yds · from CCU 41 · Q4 7:34+0.2 EPA
- FORDInterception6 plays · -22 yds · from FORD 35 · Q4 10:57+0.2 EPA
- CCUTouchdown5 plays · 32 yds · from FORD 32 · Q4 13:32+0.4 EPA
- FORDPunt3 plays · -7 yds · from FORD 35 · Q3 0:10−0.7 EPA
- CCUField Goal6 plays · 21 yds · from CCU 41 · Q3 2:01−1.7 EPA
- FORDPunt6 plays · 8 yds · from FORD 10 · Q3 6:00−0.6 EPA
- CCUPunt3 plays · 0 yds · from CCU 49 · Q3 7:37−1.7 EPA
- FORDPunt3 plays · 5 yds · from FORD 35 · Q3 9:10−0.9 EPA
- CCUTouchdown9 plays · 81 yds · from CCU 19 · Q3 12:32+3.9 EPA+1% WP
- FORDInterception4 plays · 57 yds · from FORD 35 · Q3 14:50+3.7 EPA
- FORDEnd Of Half1 plays · 3 yds · from FORD 35 · Q2 0:39−0.3 EPA
- CCUTouchdown2 plays · 16 yds · from FORD 16 · Q2 0:43−0.0 EPA+3% WP
- Q4 10:57CCUJ. Allen-Hendrix run for 5 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–45
- Q3 0:15CCUN. Cavanillas Alti 56 yd FG GOOD7–38
- Q3 9:15CCUD. Lee-Knicely run for 18 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–35
- Q2 0:39CCUD. Bailey pass to C. Coppock Jr. for 12 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–28
- Q2 5:01CCUD. Bailey pass to R. Washington for 23 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–21
- Q2 11:11CCUD. Bailey pass to C. Hinton for 65 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)7–14
- Q2 13:09FORDG. Smith pass to N. Tracy for 6 yds, for a TD (B. Henderson KICK)7–7
- Q1 10:09CCUD. Lee-Knicely run for 5 yds, for a TD (N. Cavanillas Alti KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -13.5 (79% to win) — 24.0 points clear of FORD's market line of -37.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →