Western Illinois vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WESTTeam statsWIS
- Q4 5:14WISC. Joseph pass to C. Brooks Jr. for 33 yds, for a TD (G. Lahm PAT MISSED)9–36
- Q3 5:39WISD. Dupree run for 28 yds, for a TD (G. Lahm KICK)9–30
- Q3 10:24WESTR. Culkin 34 yd FG GOOD9–23
- Q2 2:30WISG. Lahm 51 yd FG GOOD6–23
- Q2 4:59WESTR. Culkin 27 yd FG GOOD6–20
- Q2 12:48WISG. Lahm 49 yd FG GOOD3–20
- Q1 1:52WESTR. Culkin 27 yd FG GOOD3–17
- Q1 7:54WISpunt blocked by C. Van Dinter (G. Lahm KICK)0–17
- Q1 10:15WISG. Lahm 30 yd FG GOOD0–10
- Q1 14:47WISA. Sama III run for 72 yds, for a TD (G. Lahm KICK)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WEST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.2
- WEST kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. 0.4 pts per trip vs 4.1
- WIS won this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against WEST. +0.07 vs -0.19 EPA/play
- PassKennedy McGill 13/22, 139 YDS
- RushKennedy McGill 18 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecJacob Kania 2 REC, 58 YDS
- PassColton Joseph 12/22, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAbu Sama III 8 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyrell Henry 4 REC, 91 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Wisconsin?
Western Illinois 9, Wisconsin 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
| WEST | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 302 | Total yards | 406 |
| 148 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 154 | Rushing yards | 233 |
| 15 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/24 | Comp/Att | 12/22 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 34:57 | Possession | 25:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:13 WEST punt on 4th & 6 at WIS 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.15 points.
- WISEnd Of Quarter8 plays · 30 yds · from WIS 30 · Q4 2:28+0.7 EPA
- WESTPunt4 plays · 16 yds · from WEST 35 · Q4 5:07−0.6 EPA
- WISTouchdown2 plays · 84 yds · from WIS 16 · Q4 5:55+3.7 EPA
- WESTPunt3 plays · 6 yds · from WEST 20 · Q4 7:35−0.8 EPA
- WISPunt6 plays · 16 yds · from WIS 30 · Q4 11:52+0.3 EPA
- WESTPunt4 plays · 16 yds · from WEST 11 · Q4 14:55+0.4 EPA
- WISEnd Of Quarter3 plays · -2 yds · from WEST 48 · Q3 1:48−0.9 EPA
- WESTDowns7 plays · 25 yds · from WEST 35 · Q3 5:27+2.4 EPA
- WISTouchdown8 plays · 68 yds · from WIS 35 · Q3 10:19+2.8 EPA+1% WP
- WESTField Goal11 plays · 59 yds · from WEST 35 · Q3 15:00−1.5 EPA
- WISEnd Of Half7 plays · 24 yds · from WIS 20 · Q2 1:09+3.0 EPA
- WESTPunt5 plays · 27 yds · from WEST 35 · Q2 2:30−2.7 EPA
- WISField Goal5 plays · 25 yds · from WIS 35 · Q2 4:55−1.5 EPA
- WESTField Goal14 plays · 65 yds · from WEST 35 · Q2 12:48−1.1 EPA
- Q4 5:14WISC. Joseph pass to C. Brooks Jr. for 33 yds, for a TD (G. Lahm PAT MISSED)9–36
- Q3 5:39WISD. Dupree run for 28 yds, for a TD (G. Lahm KICK)9–30
- Q3 10:24WESTR. Culkin 34 yd FG GOOD9–23
- Q2 2:30WISG. Lahm 51 yd FG GOOD6–23
- Q2 4:59WESTR. Culkin 27 yd FG GOOD6–20
- Q2 12:48WISG. Lahm 49 yd FG GOOD3–20
- Q1 1:52WESTR. Culkin 27 yd FG GOOD3–17
- Q1 7:54WISpunt blocked by C. Van Dinter (G. Lahm KICK)0–17
- Q1 10:15WISG. Lahm 30 yd FG GOOD0–10
- Q1 14:47WISA. Sama III run for 72 yds, for a TD (G. Lahm KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -28.8 (95% to win) — 14.2 points clear of WEST's market line of -43. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →