Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)FS1
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEB 1558
OHIO 1584
Projected spread
NEB -7.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
NEB
71% to win
Market spread
NEB -23.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
OHIO
16.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
NEB (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NEB Elo 1558, OHIO Elo 1584) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB -7.5 (71% to win) — 16.0 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of -23.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelOHIO 29% · NEB 71%
Pick: NEB
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
OHIO2025 season · national rank shownNEB
412.335th
Total yards / game
372.581st6.228th
Yards / play
5.9Key matchups · Pro
- OHIO pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. NEB pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge OHIO.
- NEB rush offense (0.13 PPA) vs. OHIO rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge NEB.
- OHIO rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NEB rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge NEB.
FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. Nebraska?
Gridpex's model favors Nebraska with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. Nebraska?
The model projects Nebraska by 7.5.
What time is Ohio vs. Nebraska and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM on FS1, at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Nebraska at 71% to win, projecting Nebraska by 7.5.