South Dakota State vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SOUTTeam statsNU
- Q4 1:15NUJoseph Himon II 80 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)18–34
- Q4 4:34NUAidan Chiles 14 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)18–27
- Q4 8:16SOUTJosiah Johnson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–20
- Q4 13:32NUJackson Kleather 38 Yd Field Goal 12–20
- Q3 2:16SOUTTristan Alvano 26 Yd Field Goal 12–17
- Q3 7:13NUCaleb Komolafe 7 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)9–17
- Q3 9:56SOUTTristan Alvano 27 Yd Field Goal 9–10
- Q2 1:16SOUTTristan Alvano 33 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 6:32NUJackson Kleather 36 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 10:50SOUTTristan Alvano 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:42NUAlex Honig 11 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.5
Past the box score: where Northwestern won this one.
It is not often one play carries this much of a game: Joseph Himon II's 80-yard run for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q4 01:15. Northwestern takes down South Dakota State, 34-18 at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. Northwestern was the steadier side of a 16-point win. Aidan Chiles threw for 273 yards on 24 attempts with one touchdown and ran eight times for 18 yards and one score.
- PassChase Mason 23/48, 285 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJosiah Johnson 19 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGrahm Goering 9 REC, 117 YDS
- PassAidan Chiles 14/24, 273 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJoseph Himon II 4 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGriffin Wilde 3 REC, 104 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:16SOUT +18%
Shotgun #22 J.Johnson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN #7 C.Mason pass attempt failed #2 J.Smith pass attempt failed
- Q4 7:59NU +11%
Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush right for 2 yards gain to the NU31 (#8 R.Kirschenman; #0 C.Sitzman)
- Q4 4:34NU +10%
#0 A.Chiles rush left for 14 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of South Dakota State vs. Northwestern?
South Dakota State 18, Northwestern 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
| SOUT | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 432 | Total yards | 497 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 273 |
| 147 | Rushing yards | 224 |
| 27 | First downs | 19 |
| 8-20 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/48 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 7.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 9-61 |
| 34:08 | Possession | 25:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:50 SOUT field goal on 4th & 3 at NU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:15NUJoseph Himon II 80 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)18–34
- Q4 4:34NUAidan Chiles 14 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)18–27
- Q4 8:16SOUTJosiah Johnson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–20
- Q4 13:32NUJackson Kleather 38 Yd Field Goal 12–20
- Q3 2:16SOUTTristan Alvano 26 Yd Field Goal 12–17
- Q3 7:13NUCaleb Komolafe 7 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)9–17
- Q3 9:56SOUTTristan Alvano 27 Yd Field Goal 9–10
- Q2 1:16SOUTTristan Alvano 33 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 6:32NUJackson Kleather 36 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 10:50SOUTTristan Alvano 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:42NUAlex Honig 11 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Jackson Kleather Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects NU -28.5 (95% to win) — 15.0 points clear of NU's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Aidan Chiles produced eight of Northwestern's ten explosive plays
Past the box score: where Northwestern won this one.
The turnover battle was the game
Northwestern won the turnover battle 0-1, led by Damon Walters (1 INT, 1 PBU, 6.5 tackles). Northwestern produced 10 plays of 15+ yards to South Dakota State's 7: Aidan Chiles (involved in 8), Griffin Wilde (involved in 3) and Joseph Himon II (involved in 2). That's what carried Northwestern.
The names on it
Aidan Chiles threw for 273 yards on 24 attempts with one touchdown and ran eight times for 18 yards and one score — two of them from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Joseph Himon II ran four times for 87 yards and one score and caught one pass for 15 yards. Caleb Komolafe ran 10 times for 46 yards and one score and caught two passes for 37 yards — that score from inside the 20. For South Dakota State, Chase Mason threw for 285 yards on 48 attempts and ran 13 times for 39 yards, including seven third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Grahm Goering caught nine passes for 117 yards, including a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Jack Smith caught five passes for 79 yards, with two third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Damon Walters was the disruptive one for Northwestern: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 6.5 tackles.
Three plays
It came down to a few snaps. Aidan Chiles's 71-yard throw to Griffin Wilde on 1st-and-10 at Q1 12:14. Then Chase Mason's 25-yard throw to Grahm Goering on 3rd-and-5 at Q4 12:16. Later, Joseph Himon II's 80-yard run for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q4 01:15.
The order of events
Northwestern struck first through Aidan Chiles, led 10-6 at the half and Northwestern got the final points on a late touchdown by Joseph Himon II.
Who got home
Three names to keep, all for Northwestern: Damon Walters (1 INT, 1 PBU, 6.5 tackles), Brendan Flakes (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 3 tackles) and Braydon Brus (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 4.5 tackles).
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Northwestern was the better team and looked it; South Dakota State has fixable problems. Tristan Alvano was responsible for 12 of South Dakota State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →