Sun, Sep 6, 8:00 PM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WASH Elo 1866, WSU Elo 1549) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -16.1 (88% to win) — 5.4 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -21.5.
Pick: WASH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Washington with a 88% win probability.
The model projects Washington by 16.1.
Sun, Sep 6, 8:00 PM on NBC, at Husky Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Washington at 88% to win, projecting Washington by 16.1. I'm close to the market here. Who's got an angle the model's missing?
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