North Texas vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsIU
- Q4 1:47IUGrant Wilson 43 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)16–52
- Q4 5:26IUTurbo Richard 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)16–45
- Q4 12:51IUDavion Chandler 42 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)16–38
- Q3 1:18UNTDominic De Freitas 38 Yd Field Goal 16–31
- Q3 9:56IUCharlie Becker 35 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)13–31
- Q3 11:40UNTJahiem White 9 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)13–24
- Q2 1:24IUNico Radicic 49 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 1:57UNTDominic De Freitas 33 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 6:46IUCharlie Becker 9 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)3–21
- Q2 9:48UNTDominic De Freitas 47 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 0:13IUTurbo Richard 2 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:36IUNick Marsh 15 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
This one was over early. Indiana rolls past North Texas, 52-16 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). Indiana led from start to finish and never let North Texas within striking distance. Josh Hoover threw for 231 yards on 16 attempts with four touchdowns.
- PassTayven Jackson 22/28, 192 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJahiem White 14 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCorri Milliner 4 REC, 66 YDS
- PassJosh Hoover 13/16, 231 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTurbo Richard 15 CAR, 58 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCharlie Becker 4 REC, 64 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Indiana?
North Texas 16, Indiana 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| UNT | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 365 |
| 215 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 152 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/29 | Comp/Att | 13/16 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 14.4 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-79 | Penalties | 5-48 |
| 37:22 | Possession | 22:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:48 UNT field goal on 4th & 3 at IU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:47IUGrant Wilson 43 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)16–52
- Q4 5:26IUTurbo Richard 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)16–45
- Q4 12:51IUDavion Chandler 42 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)16–38
- Q3 1:18UNTDominic De Freitas 38 Yd Field Goal 16–31
- Q3 9:56IUCharlie Becker 35 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)13–31
- Q3 11:40UNTJahiem White 9 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)13–24
- Q2 1:24IUNico Radicic 49 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 1:57UNTDominic De Freitas 33 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 6:46IUCharlie Becker 9 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)3–21
- Q2 9:48UNTDominic De Freitas 47 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 0:13IUTurbo Richard 2 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:36IUNick Marsh 15 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 2064, UNT Elo 1639 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU -29.2 (98% to win) — 10.8 points clear of UNT's market line of -40. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNT | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4 (#77) | CORE overall | +20.3 (#11) |
| +6 / +8 | offense / defense | +13 / -7 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 5.78 |
| 5.78 | allowed / drive | 1.78 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Josh Hoover had a hand in six of Indiana's eight explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
One team finished its drives
Indiana scored on 89% of its drives to North Texas's 40%, chiefly Josh Hoover (24 pts), Charlie Becker (12 pts) and Turbo Richard (12 pts). Indiana started 21 yards closer to the end zone on an average drive. Stacked together, it was never close.
Who carried it
Josh Hoover threw for 231 yards on 16 attempts with four touchdowns, including two of them from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. Charlie Becker caught four passes for 64 yards, two of them for touchdowns — that score from inside the 20. Turbo Richard ran 15 times for 58 yards and two scores and caught one pass for 38 yards, with two of them from inside the 20. For North Texas, Tayven Jackson threw for 192 yards on 28 attempts and ran six times for 22 yards — six third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Justin Stevenson caught two passes for 47 yards. Jahiem White ran 14 times for 61 yards and one score and caught seven passes for 36 yards — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Quan Sanks was the disruptive one for Indiana: 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 2.5 tackles.
What North Texas has to fix
The problems had names: Tayven Jackson (1 interception).
Who got home
Two names to keep: Quan Sanks (0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 2.5 tackles) for Indiana and Tyrique Tucker (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 tackle) for Indiana.
The way it played out
Indiana struck first through Josh Hoover, led 24-6 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by Grant Wilson.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Indiana. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →