North Texas vs Indiana Prediction, Picks & Odds — Sep 5, 2026

North Texas averaged 45.1 points a game last season, the second-ranked offense in the country, and almost none of it is walking into Memorial Stadium. Thirty-eight Mean Green players left through the portal, sixteen to Oklahoma State: quarterback Drew Mestemaker (4,369 yards), running back Caleb Hawkins (1,424 yards, 25 touchdowns), receiver Wyatt Young (1,264 yards). Of last season's top ten pass catchers, one is still on the roster: Dalton Carnes, seven catches. Of the top six rushers, none. That ranking belongs to a team that no longer exists.

Indiana emptied out too, just differently. Fernando Mendoza (3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns) is in the NFL, along with Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., who combined for 134 catches and 28 touchdowns on the way to 16-0. What separates the two sidelines is what each restocked with. The quarterback matchup is the smallest piece of the gap; roster talent and last season's body of work are most of it.

Josh Hoover's debut, Tayven Jackson's homecoming

Curt Cignetti named Josh Hoover his starter before fall camp, with redshirt freshman Grant Wilson behind him. Hoover arrives from TCU with 884 attempts, 7,421 yards and 56 touchdowns over the last two seasons, the most productive returning passer in the country and the second straight year Indiana has imported a 3,000-yard quarterback. That worked out fine the first time.

Neal Brown, in his first year at North Texas, has refused to name anyone. Jackson has led since media days on his Power Four experience, with East Carolina transfer Chaston Ditta and redshirt freshman Chris Jimerson Jr. behind him. He threw for 2,151 yards and 10 touchdowns at UCF last season on 315 attempts, 6.8 yards a throw against the 9.4 Mestemaker averaged. Now he reads a defense he used to face in practice, throwing to receivers he met in the summer, in a stadium where he was once the backup.

When Indiana has the ball

The ground game is the bigger mismatch. Indiana's rushing offense ranked 28th; Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black took most of those carries and are gone, but the restock is proven: Boston College transfer Turbo Richard ran for 749 yards and nine scores with 30 catches last fall, including back-to-back 171- and 141-yard November starts, with Khobie Martin (77-506-6) and Lee Beebe behind him. Four linemen return, Carter Smith, Drew Evans, Bray Lynch and Adedamola Ajani, plus Wisconsin's Joe Brunner, on a line that graded 11th nationally in run blocking. North Texas's run defense ranked 109th and returns six percent of it: Ethan Wesloski (104 tackles) and Trey Fields (100) are gone, and all nine projected defensive starters are new names, most second- and third-time transfers.

The second wave is the pass. Indiana's fifth-ranked attack returns 13 percent of its production, so Hoover throws to Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh (59 catches, 662 yards), Tulane's Shazz Preston (43-723-4) and holdover Charlie Becker, 20.0 yards a catch. That secondary broke up 26 passes all last season, 121st in the country, and was rebuilt too: safeties Jayven Anderson and Quinton Hammonds and corner Da'Veawn Armstead left, with right corner Peyton Taylor up from Division II Emporia State.

When North Texas has the ball— its offense vs Indiana’s defense

Passing: North Texas O #12 vs Indiana D #49Indiana · slight edge

Rushing: North Texas O #3 vs Indiana D #3Indiana · clear edge

◄ Indiana defense winsNorth Texas offense wins ►

When Indiana has the ball— its offense vs North Texas’s defense

Passing: Indiana O #5 vs North Texas D #52Indiana · slight edge

Rushing: Indiana O #28 vs North Texas D #109Indiana · slight edge

◄ North Texas defense winsIndiana offense wins ►

Read it by possession: each side shows what happens when that team has the ball — its offense against the other team's defense, unit by unit (national rank in parentheses). Last season's grades, shrunk toward average by how much of each unit's production actually returns. North Texas returns 2% of last season's passing production and 3% of its rushing production. Indiana returns 13% of last season's passing production and 24% of its rushing production. North Texas's projected line: 1 of 5 held over, 4 portal; Indiana's projected line: 4 of 5 held over, 1 portal.

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When North Texas has the ball

Everything runs through protection. North Texas allowed just 13 sacks on 471 dropbacks last season, but both tackles and a starting guard followed the migration to Stillwater. Four of five projected starters are transfers from four schools, Johnny Williams IV, Chandler Strong, Henry Fenuku and Neto Umeozulu, with Dylan Shaw the lone holdover and himself a transfer. Across from them is the one Indiana unit that came back mostly intact: Rolijah Hardy (87 tackles, eight sacks), Isaiah Jones (66 and seven), Tyrique Tucker (31 and 5.5) and Mario Landino (24 and five) account for 25.5 of last year's 39 sacks, with Kansas State edge Tobi Osunsanmi added. West Virginia transfer Jahiem White is the projected lead back; the room behind him has roughly 16 FBS carries.

The soft spot is the unit Indiana had to rebuild. The Hoosiers were third nationally at stopping runs behind the line and eighth up front, but 117th of 136 against the big play, and the defensive backs behind it are gone: safety Louis Moore (six interceptions), corners JoJo Johnson (13 breakups) and D'Angelo Ponds, and Devan Boykin. Penn State transfer A.J. Harris and Wisconsin's Preston Zachman join holdovers Jamari Sharpe, Byron Baldwin Jr. and free safety Amare Ferrell (four interceptions). North Texas's answer is UAB transfer Corri Milliner (15.8 yards a catch) and slot James Tyre, 68 catches for 832 yards and 11 touchdowns at FCS Western Carolina. Since 2014, 26 Group of 5 teams have opened a new quarterback on the road against a top-10 power-conference defense. The home team won all 26, and two-thirds of those visitors were held under 20 points (n=26).

What each side needs to cover the number

Indiana is favored by 40.8, about ten points clear of where this game projects. Getting past it takes a scoring drive on nearly every possession; Indiana finished first nationally at turning chances into points, but that grade belongs largely to players who left. It takes the short-field version too: Indiana wins the turnover battle by two or more in about one game in three. And no slow start: the cover risk is a tidy three-score win with backups in the fourth quarter. Working against all of it, this offense ranked 114th in big plays, and a grind-it-out unit tops out in the low 30s.

North Texas's list is shorter and more achievable. Bleed clock, avoid the three-and-outs that hand Indiana extra possessions, and force the low-scoring version, the shape two-thirds of the games North Texas stays in take. Above all, do not give it away: in games priced like this one the team winning the turnover battle wins 71.6 percent of the time (n=74 since 2014), against 75.2 percent league-wide, and a rebuilt offense playing catch-up in a hostile stadium is the profile that gives it away. A fourth-down conversion or a special-teams play is the cheap way to steal the extra drive. The keep-it-close checklist is the realistic one.

The bottom Line

Indiana wins by about 31, something near 38-7, and buries this by 20 or more roughly four times in five. The realistic range runs from about 13 to 49: the floor is a 14-3 first half while Hoover learns a receiver room he met in January; the ceiling is Richard and Martin running downhill at a linebacker level that lost 204 tackles, with the game over by halftime. A one-score finish happens about one time in twenty. What changes the shape: two connections from Jackson to Milliner or Tyre over that rebuilt secondary. Hit them and North Texas gets to the mid-teens; miss them and the third quarter is a formality.

0%

-38

0%

-32

0%

-24

0%

-18

0%

-10

1%

-4

2%

+4

6%

+10

11%

+18

17%

+24

20%

+32

18%

+38

13%

+46

North Texas winsIndiana wins

Market: Indiana −41Projected: Indiana by 32 (99%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Indiana, the more likely Indiana wins.

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