Kent State vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsARK
- Q4 10:16ARKAndrew Armstrong 9 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)6–28
- Q3 5:50ARKRashod Dubinion 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)6–21
- Q2 2:20ARKAndrew Armstrong 5 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)6–14
- Q2 6:29KENTAndrew Glass 38 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 1:12ARKAntonio Grier 25 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)3–7
- Q1 3:24KENTAndrew Glass 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassMichael Alaimo 11/17, 174 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGavin Garcia 18 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecTrell Harris 4 REC, 78 YDS
- PassKJ Jefferson 13/19, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAJ Green Jr. 15 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecIsaac TeSlaa 3 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,205 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:12ARK +11%
Antonio Grier 25 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)
- Q2 2:20ARK +11%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 5 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
- Q1 3:24KENT +8%
Andrew Glass 48 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 6:29KENT +7%
Andrew Glass 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 5:50ARK +5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Arkansas?
Kent State 6, Arkansas 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARK) was correct.
| KENT | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 200 | Total yards | 308 |
| 174 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 14 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 13/19 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 0.7 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-39 | Penalties | 4-34 |
| 27:44 | Possession | 32:16 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:16ARKAndrew Armstrong 9 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)6–28
- Q3 5:50ARKRashod Dubinion 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)6–21
- Q2 2:20ARKAndrew Armstrong 5 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)6–14
- Q2 6:29KENTAndrew Glass 38 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 1:12ARKAntonio Grier 25 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)3–7
- Q1 3:24KENTAndrew Glass 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1624, KENT Elo 1262 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -16.9 (87% to win) — 21.6 points clear of KENT's market line of -38.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENT | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| -33.4 (#133) | CORE overall | +0.2 (#61) |
| -17 / +17 | offense / defense | -5 / -6 |
| 1.12 | points / drive | 1.60 |
| 3.28 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →