Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FSU Elo 1556, SMU Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU +6.3 (32% to win) — 3.8 points of value on SMU versus the market line of +2.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: SMU · 12 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge FSU.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. FSU pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge SMU.
- FSU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge FSU.
FAQ
Who will win SMU vs. Florida State?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 68% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for SMU vs. Florida State?
The model projects SMU by 6.3.
What time is SMU vs. Florida State and what channel is it on?
Mon, Sep 7, 11:30 PM on ESPN, at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this SMU at 68% to win, projecting SMU by 6.3. That's 12 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?