Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WVU Elo 1291, CCU Elo 1163) plus home-field advantage. That projects WVU -9.3 (75% to win) — 8.2 points of value on CCU versus the market line of -17.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: WVU · 27 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. WVU pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge WVU.
- WVU rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CCU.
- WVU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
FAQ
Who will win Coastal Carolina vs. West Virginia?
Gridpex's model favors West Virginia with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Coastal Carolina vs. West Virginia?
The model projects West Virginia by 9.3.
What time is Coastal Carolina vs. West Virginia and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM on TNT | HBO Max, at Milan Puskar Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this West Virginia at 75% to win, projecting West Virginia by 9.3. That's 27 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?