Coastal Carolina vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsWVU
- Q4 0:27CCUNico Cavanillas Alti 32 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 1:51CCUClayton Coppock Jr. 37 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)21–31
- Q4 2:58WVUMichael Hawkins Jr. 11 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)14–31
- Q4 12:56CCUColton Hinton 13 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)14–24
- Q3 3:57CCUClayton Coppock Jr. 34 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)7–24
- Q2 1:18WVUCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)0–24
- Q2 13:51WVUJack Cassidy 38 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:14WVUArmoni Weaver-Bomar 49 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Jack Cassidy Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:13WVUCam Cook 3 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WVU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.1
It came down to the final possessions. What separated West Virginia from Coastal Carolina.
Michael Hawkins Jr. scored 12 of West Virginia's points. They edge Coastal Carolina, 31-24 at Milan Puskar Stadium. It stayed within one score late, and West Virginia made the plays down the stretch. Michael Hawkins Jr. threw for 132 yards on 14 attempts with one touchdown and ran 20 times for 103 yards and one score.
- PassDeuce Bailey 21/37, 373 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJevon Edwards 10 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecClayton Coppock Jr. 4 REC, 83 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMichael Hawkins Jr. 11/14, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCam Cook 30 CAR, 142 YDS, 2 TD
- RecArmoni Weaver-Bomar 1 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWVU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:13WVU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CCU00 TOUCHDOWN kick attempt good
- Q1 2:14WVU +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Hawkins Jr. pass complete deep right to #25 A.Weaver-Bomar caught at CCU03, for 49 yards to the CCU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. West Virginia?
Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
| CCU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 425 | Total yards | 413 |
| 373 | Passing yards | 132 |
| 52 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 11/14 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-60 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 27:04 | Possession | 32:56 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:50 WVU punt on 4th & 1 at WVU 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:27CCUNico Cavanillas Alti 32 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 1:51CCUClayton Coppock Jr. 37 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)21–31
- Q4 2:58WVUMichael Hawkins Jr. 11 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)14–31
- Q4 12:56CCUColton Hinton 13 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)14–24
- Q3 3:57CCUClayton Coppock Jr. 34 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)7–24
- Q2 1:18WVUCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)0–24
- Q2 13:51WVUJack Cassidy 38 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:14WVUArmoni Weaver-Bomar 49 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Jack Cassidy Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:13WVUCam Cook 3 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1360, CCU Elo 1275 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU -16.1 (85% to win) — 4.9 points clear of CCU's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CCU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.7 (#90) | CORE overall | -8.7 (#105) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | -5 / +4 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.58 |
| 2.58 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -19 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Deuce Bailey was responsible for 18 of Coastal Carolina's 24 points
It came down to the final possessions. What separated West Virginia from Coastal Carolina.
The plays that turned it
Cumulative margin after each quarter (comeback bid). Above the line = CC ahead, below = WVU ahead.
Most of the movement came on three plays. Cam Cook's 72-yard run on 1st-and-10 at Q1 14:46. Then Michael Hawkins Jr.'s 49-yard throw to Armoni Weaver-Bomar for a touchdown on 3rd-and-5 at Q1 02:14. Later, Michael Hawkins Jr.'s 9-yard run that came up short on 2nd-and-8 at Q2 10:24.
How it unfolded
West Virginia struck first through Cam Cook, led 24-0 at the half and the final points came on a late field goal by Coastal Carolina.
The big plays only went one way
Coastal Carolina produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to West Virginia's 6, chiefly Deuce Bailey (involved in 12), Clayton Coppock (involved in 2) and Tristian Gardner (involved in 2). West Virginia converted 9 of 18 third downs (50%) to Coastal Carolina's 20%: Michael Hawkins Jr. (8/14), Cam Cook (2/6) and DJ Epps (2/2). West Virginia won anyway.
The standouts
Michael Hawkins Jr. threw for 132 yards on 14 attempts with one touchdown and ran 20 times for 103 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20, eight third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Cam Cook ran 30 times for 142 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 11 yards, including two of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. DJ Epps ran two times for 5 yards and caught three passes for 36 yards, including two third-down conversions. For Coastal Carolina, Deuce Bailey threw for 373 yards on 37 attempts with three touchdowns and ran 10 times for 19 yards, with that score from inside the 20 and a hand in 12 plays of 15 yards or more. Clayton Coppock caught four passes for 83 yards, two of them for touchdowns. Colton Hinton caught three passes for 53 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with that score from inside the 20. Nate Gabriel was the disruptive one for West Virginia: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1.5 tackles.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A nervy, earned win for West Virginia; Coastal Carolina was one play from flipping it.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →