Towson vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOWSTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 8:39NAVYBraxton Woodson 4 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)15–42
- Q3 3:14TOWSZaydaan Faridi 40 Yd Field Goal 15–35
- Q3 7:46NAVYJackson Gutierrez 2 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)12–35
- Q2 0:24NAVYBraxton Woodson 8 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)12–28
- Q2 7:50TOWSJacob Zollar 30 Yd pass from Andrew Indorf (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–21
- Q2 9:32NAVYJackson Gutierrez 3 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)6–21
- Q2 14:52TOWSAaron Enterline 48 Yd pass from Andrew Indorf (Zaydaan Faridi PAT failed)6–14
- Q1 3:37NAVYVic Listorti 35 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:21NAVYBraxton Woodson 38 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TOWS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NAVY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.0
- TOWS lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 34% success rate
Navy was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Towson went three-and-out on 44% of its drives. That is the game. Navy routs Towson, 42-15 at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Navy led from start to finish and never let Towson within striking distance. Braxton Woodson threw for 21 yards on six attempts and ran 23 times for 200 yards and three scores.
- PassAndrew Indorf 13/18, 208 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKemarrion Battles 8 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecAaron Enterline 2 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBraxton Woodson 3/6, 21 YDS
- RushBraxton Woodson 23 CAR, 200 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMichael Barrow 2 REC, 11 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Towson vs. Navy?
Towson 15, Navy 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| TOWS | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 527 |
| 207 | Passing yards | 21 |
| 39 | Rushing yards | 506 |
| 13 | First downs | 30 |
| 2-8 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 14/19 | Comp/Att | 3/6 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 20:10 | Possession | 39:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:12 TOWS punt on 4th & 3 at TOWS 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:39NAVYBraxton Woodson 4 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)15–42
- Q3 3:14TOWSZaydaan Faridi 40 Yd Field Goal 15–35
- Q3 7:46NAVYJackson Gutierrez 2 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)12–35
- Q2 0:24NAVYBraxton Woodson 8 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)12–28
- Q2 7:50TOWSJacob Zollar 30 Yd pass from Andrew Indorf (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–21
- Q2 9:32NAVYJackson Gutierrez 3 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)6–21
- Q2 14:52TOWSAaron Enterline 48 Yd pass from Andrew Indorf (Zaydaan Faridi PAT failed)6–14
- Q1 3:37NAVYVic Listorti 35 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:21NAVYBraxton Woodson 38 Yd Run (Nolan Bartley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -24.6 (93% to win) — 6.4 points clear of TOWS's market line of -31. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Navy routs Towson, 42-15
Navy was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
One team finished its drives
Navy scored on 67% of its drives to Towson's 33%: Braxton Woodson (18 pts), Vic Listorti (6 pts) and Jackson Gutierrez (12 pts). Navy converted 7 of 12 third downs (58%) to Towson's 25%, chiefly Braxton Woodson (4/7). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Braxton Woodson threw for 21 yards on six attempts and ran 23 times for 200 yards and three scores — two of them from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Vic Listorti ran 11 times for 81 yards and one score. Jackson Gutierrez ran eight times for 31 yards and two scores, including two of them from inside the 20. For Towson, Andrew Indorf threw for 208 yards on 18 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 18 yards on three carries, including two third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Aaron Enterline caught two passes for 69 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Jacob Zollar caught two passes for 42 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Aiden Lyczek was the disruptive one for Navy: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1.5 tackles.
What Towson has to fix
Towson was not without production. Andrew Indorf threw for 208 yards on 18 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 18 yards on three carries, but it arrived in a game that was already gone.
The defensive story
Two names to keep, all for Navy: Aiden Lyczek (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1.5 tackles) and Connor Young (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 tackle). 2 of Navy's 3 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 43% it had averaged over the previous 8 seasons.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Navy did exactly what a better team should against Towson: leave no doubt.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →