Butler vs. Dayton: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Butler4-3

▸0037

Dayton2-5

0010

Final

Welcome StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
BUTL	13	7	3	14	37
DAYT	0	3	0	7	10

BUTLTeam statsDAYT

342Total yards288

191Pass183

151Rush105

16First downs17

1-93rd down7-19

1Turnovers2

27:57Possession32:03

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:47BUTLRyan Lezon 9 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)37–10
• Q4 4:12BUTLJyran Mitchell 59 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)30–10
• Q4 5:42DAYTLuke Hansen 2 Yd Run (Sam Webster Kick)23–10
• Q3 8:26BUTLLuka Zurak 36 Yd Field Goal 23–3
• Q2 4:04BUTLJyran Mitchell 3 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)20–3
• Q2 10:07DAYTSam Webster 32 Yd Field Goal 13–3
• Q1 1:39BUTLLuka Zurak 46 Yd Field Goal 13–0
• Q1 5:21BUTLJyran Mitchell 24 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)10–0
• Q1 7:07BUTLLuka Zurak 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

BUTL −7

Against the number

BUTL covered

line BUTL −7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DAYT 100%50%BUTL 100%

Kickoff146 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

DAYT (top)BUTL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DAYT 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

BUTL −7

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

BUTL 37 – 10 DAYT

Leaders

Butler

• PassBret Bushka 18/23, 191 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushJyran Mitchell 16 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
• RecEthan Loss 6 REC, 86 YDS

Dayton

• PassDrew VanVleet 30/48, 183 YDS
• RushLuke Hansen 9 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJake Coleman 7 REC, 52 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.36

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BUTL up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 815 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

98%

BUTL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCincinnati vs Pittsburgh27-21WMontana State vs Weber State40-0WGeorgia vs Vanderbilt37-20WCampbell vs Maine34-28WBYU vs Texas Tech27-14

Fourth downs

19 calls

DAYT gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.BUTL 6/7 · DAYT 6/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Butler vs. Dayton?

Butler 37, Dayton 10.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked DAYT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

BUTL

DAYT

41%

Success rate

37%

0.58

EPA / pass

-0.05

0.02

EPA / rush

0.16

43%

Early-down success

36%

61%

Pass success

30%

26%

Rush success

50%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

1%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

43%

Pass rate

64%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

BUTL

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

54 scrimmage snaps

DAYT

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

BUTL		DAYT
342	Total yards	288
191	Passing yards	183
151	Rushing yards	105
16	First downs	17
1-9	3rd down	7-19
3-3	4th down	3-5
18/23	Comp/Att	30/49
8.3	Yards per pass	3.7
4.9	Yards per rush	3.6
1	Turnovers	2
0-0	Penalties	6-61
27:57	Possession	32:03

Fourth downs

19 calls

BUTL

6/7 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

DAYT

6/10 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 14:04 DAYT go for it on 4th & 10 at BUTL 18. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.95 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

BUTL 7/12 scoring drives← own end zone →DAYT 2/11 scoring drives

DAYTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

BUTLFG11 pl, 41 yds· opp 48Q1

DAYTFUM3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q1

BUTLTD1 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q1

DAYTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 8Q1

BUTLFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 35Q1

DAYTFG14 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q1

BUTLTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

DAYTPUNT9 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2

BUTLEND2 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q2

BUTLPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

DAYTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3

BUTLFG5 pl, 57 yds· own 24Q3

DAYTPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3

BUTLINT8 pl, 50 yds· own 29Q3

DAYTDOWNS12 pl, 39 yds· own 43Q3

BUTLPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 18Q4

DAYTTD18 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4

BUTLTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

DAYTDOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· own 12Q4

BUTLTD4 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q4

DAYTFUM3 pl, 26 yds· own 34Q4

BUTLEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 42Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:47BUTLRyan Lezon 9 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)37–10
• Q4 4:12BUTLJyran Mitchell 59 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)30–10
• Q4 5:42DAYTLuke Hansen 2 Yd Run (Sam Webster Kick)23–10
• Q3 8:26BUTLLuka Zurak 36 Yd Field Goal 23–3
• Q2 4:04BUTLJyran Mitchell 3 Yd pass from Bret Bushka (Luka Zurak Kick)20–3
• Q2 10:07DAYTSam Webster 32 Yd Field Goal 13–3
• Q1 1:39BUTLLuka Zurak 46 Yd Field Goal 13–0
• Q1 5:21BUTLJyran Mitchell 24 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)10–0
• Q1 7:07BUTLLuka Zurak 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →