Texas Tech vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsBYU
- Q4 8:41TTUTahj Brooks 1 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)14–27
- Q3 1:19BYUWill Ferrin 41 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 0:59BYUWill Ferrin 35 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 6:11BYUDarius Lassiter 4 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:19TTUXavier White 72 Yd pass from Jake Strong (Gino Garcia Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:10BYUEddie Heckard fumble recovered in end zone (Will Ferrin Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:34BYUChase Roberts 3 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Strong 19/37, 236 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushTahj Brooks 30 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier White 3 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKedon Slovis 15/27, 127 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLJ Martin 10 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecDarius Lassiter 4 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 815 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:11BYU +19%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q1 11:34BYU +18%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 3 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q2 9:19TTU +18%
Jake Strong pass complete to Xavier White for 72 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
- Q1 2:10BYU +16%
Eddie Heckard 5 Yd Fumble Return (Will Ferrin Kick)
- Q2 0:59BYU +5%
Will Ferrin 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. BYU?
Texas Tech 14, BYU 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TTU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TTU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 389 | Total yards | 277 |
| 236 | Passing yards | 127 |
| 153 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 19 | First downs | 12 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/37 | Comp/Att | 15/27 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 4-24 |
| 30:55 | Possession | 29:05 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:51 BYU punt on 4th & 4 at BYU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:41TTUTahj Brooks 1 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)14–27
- Q3 1:19BYUWill Ferrin 41 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 0:59BYUWill Ferrin 35 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 6:11BYUDarius Lassiter 4 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:19TTUXavier White 72 Yd pass from Jake Strong (Gino Garcia Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:10BYUEddie Heckard fumble recovered in end zone (Will Ferrin Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:34BYUChase Roberts 3 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1471, TTU Elo 1637 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU +4.2 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TTU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#52) | CORE overall | -6.3 (#90) |
| -3 / -6 | offense / defense | -9 / -3 |
| 1.98 | points / drive | 1.29 |
| 2.12 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →