Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (AUB Elo 1670, BAY Elo 1509) on a neutral field. That projects AUB -8.5 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: AUB · 4 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- BAY rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. AUB rush defense (-0.11 allowed) — edge BAY.
- AUB pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. BAY pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge BAY.
- AUB rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. BAY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge AUB.
FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. Auburn?
Gridpex's model favors Auburn with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. Auburn?
The model projects Auburn by 8.5.
What time is Baylor vs. Auburn and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM on ABC, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Auburn at 74% to win, projecting Auburn by 8.5. That's 4 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?