vs Florida · Wk 3Win prob 51%Model -0.3Schedule & Results
SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Byrum BrownPassing482 yds · 2 TD · 3 INT
Jeremiah CobbRushing138 yds · 1 TD · 5.8 avg
Keshaun SingletonReceiving10 rec · 131 yds · 0 TD
Elijah MelendezTackles18 tackles · 3 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Auburn
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Baylor rebuilt its tackles; Auburn kept its front
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Locklan Hewlett | QB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Saint Augustine, FL |
| 10 | Tristan Ti'a | QB | SO | 6'2" | 217 | Livermore, CA |
| 11 | Will Myers | QB | SO | 5'8" | 190 | Homewood, AL |
| 16 | John Colvin | QB | JR | 6'3" | 200 | Birmingham, AL |
| 17 | Byrum Brown | QB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Raleigh, NC |
| 19 | Rhys Brush | QB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Tampa, FL |
| 21 | Tae Meadows | RB | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Roanoke, AL |
| 22 | Alvin Henderson | RB | SO | 5'9" | 202 | Elba, AL |
| 23 | Jeremiah Cobb | RB | SR | 5'11" | 205 | Montgomery, AL |
| 24 | Nykahi Davenport | RB | SO | 6'0" | 212 | Roswell, GA |
| 25 | Cole Gamble | RB | SO | 6'1" | 203 | Birmingham, AL |
| 26 | Christian Burnette | RB | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Mobile, AL |
| 29 | Omar Mabson II | RB | SO | 5'9" | 215 | Auburn, AL |
| 30 | Bryson Washington | RB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Franklin, TX |
| 36 | Stuart Andrews | RB | FR | 5'9" | 185 | Mountain Brook, AL |
| 4 | Jeremiah Koger | WR | SO | 6'3" | 213 | Baltimore, MD |
| 5 | Chas Nimrod | WR | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Bentonville, AR |
| 6 | Bryce Cain | WR | SO | 5'10" | 165 | Mobile, AL |
| 8 | Christian Neptune | WR | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Cantonment, FL |
| 9 | DeShawn Spencer | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Mobile, AL |
| 11 | Keshaun Singleton | WR | JR | 6'3" | 220 | Norcross, GA |
| 12 | Brady Marchese | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Acworth, GA |
| 13 | Kory Pettigrew | WR | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Kathleen, GA |
| 15 | Brian Williams Jr. | WR | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Orlando, FL |
| 18 | Sam Turner | WR | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Lithonia, GA |
| 80 | Will Upton | WR | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Jackson, MS |
| 86 | Jack Ellenburg | WR | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Atlanta, GA |
| 89 | Jake White | WR | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Auburn, AL |
| 1 | Jonathan Echols | TE | SO | 6'6" | 235 | Franklin, GA |
| 19 | Jake Johnson | TE | SR | 6'6" | 245 | Athens, GA |
| 40 | Hunter Ousley | TE | SO | 6'2" | 245 | Clanton, AL |
| 82 | Arlis Boardingham | TE | SR | 6'3" | 250 | Van Nuys, CA |
| 83 | Xavier Newsom | TE | SO | 6'6" | 265 | Detroit, MI |
| 84 | Ryan Ghea | TE | SO | 6'5" | 250 | Milton, GA |
| 85 | Hunter Herring | TE | SR | 6'5" | 235 | West Monroe, LA |
| 87 | DJ Broughton Jr. | TE | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Mobile, AL |
| 50 | TJ Hedrick | OL | SO | 6'4" | 315 | Columbia, MO |
| 51 | Kail Ellis | OL | SO | 6'4" | 315 | Canton, GA |
| 52 | Deryc Plazz | OL | SO | 6'4" | 320 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 55 | Kenneth McManus IV | OL | SO | 6'2" | 315 | Washington, DC |
| 56 | Cole Skinner | OL | SR | 6'5" | 322 | Point Pleasant, NJ |
| 57 | Harrison Clemmer | OL | JR | 6'0" | 279 | Birmingham, AL |
| 58 | John Henry Flatt | OL | SO | 6'6" | 310 | Dallas, TX |
| 60 | Cade Barnett | OL | JR | 6'5" | 300 | Monroeville, AL |
| 65 | Stanton Ramil | OL | JR | 6'7" | 313 | Binghamton, NY |
| 69 | Jacob Strand | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Canby, OR |
| 70 | Parker Pritchett | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | Fort Mitchell, AL |
| 71 | Tai Buster | OL | SO | 6'3" | 319 | Kannapolis, NC |
| 72 | Cole Best | OL | SR | 6'4" | 322 | Winter Park, FL |
| 73 | Mykall Lundy-Foster | OL | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 74 | Jacobe' Ward | OL | SO | 6'4" | 340 | Savannah, GA |
| 75 | Bear McWhorter | OL | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Kingston, GA |
| 76 | Jack Leyrer | OL | SR | 6'5" | 314 | Dallas, TX |
| 77 | Wilson Zierer | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | Munich |
| 78 | Mason Mathis | OL | FR | 6'6" | 320 | Pace, FL |
| 79 | Jo Simmons | OL | SR | 6'5" | 330 | Dover, DE |
| 40 | Chris Wells | DE | FR | 6'3" | 227 | Petal, MS |
| 15 | Da'Shawn Womack | EDGE | SR | 6'5" | 265 | Baltimore, MD |
| 18 | J.J. Faulk | EDGE | SO | 6'3" | 260 | Highland Home, AL |
| 29 | Jaquez Wilkes | EDGE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Wadley, AL |
| 31 | Joe Phillips | EDGE | SO | 6'2" | 250 | Shorter, AL |
| 41 | Jared Smith | EDGE | SO | 6'6" | 260 | Birmingham, AL |
| 90 | Nate Johnson | EDGE | SR | 6'5" | 263 | Gaffney, SC |
| 10 | Walter Mathis Jr. | DL | SO | 6'2" | 290 | Savannah, GA |
| 11 | Darrion Smith | DL | SO | 6'2" | 263 | Annapolis, MD |
| 13 | Chris Murray | DL | SR | 6'3" | 256 | Wichita Falls, TX |
| 35 | Dallas Walker IV | DL | SR | 6'3" | 345 | Nashville, TN |
| 91 | Tavian Branch | DL | FR | 6'4" | 320 | Taylor, PA |
| 94 | Cody Sigler | DL | SR | 6'2" | 308 | New Hope, AL |
| 95 | Jourdin Crawford | DL | SO | 6'0" | 330 | Birmingham, AL |
| 96 | Malik Autry | DL | SO | 6'5" | 320 | Opelika, AL |
| 98 | Corey Wells | DL | FR | 6'5" | 325 | Petal, MS |
| 99 | Saint Farrior | DL | JR | 6'3" | 340 | Durham, NC |
| 6 | De'marcus Riddick | LB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Clanton, AL |
| 9 | Elijah Melendez | LB | SO | 6'0" | 240 | Kissimmee, FL |
| 16 | Bryce Deas | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Prince George County, MD |
| 17 | Xavier Atkins | LB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Houston, TX |
| 24 | Shadarius Toodle | LB | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Mobile, AL |
| 42 | Coleman Granberry | LB | JR | 5'11" | 210 | Auburn, AL |
| 44 | Adam Balogoun-Ali | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Palm Beach, FL |
| 45 | Antonio Melendez | LB | JR | 5'11" | 241 | Kissimmee, FL |
| 51 | Michael Matthews-Canty | LB | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 52 | William Grier McDuffie | LB | SO | 6'1" | 217 | Birmingham, AL |
| 4 | Rayshawn Pleasant | CB | SR | 5'11" | 200 | West Monroe, LA |
| 12 | Blake Woodby | CB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 14 | Shamar Arnoux | CB | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 19 | Scrap Richardson | CB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Greenville, GA |
| 21 | Gavin Jenkins | CB | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Lake Butler, FL |
| 22 | Andre Jordan Jr. | CB | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Federal Way, WA |
| 27 | Devin Williams | CB | SO | 5'9" | 168 | Dacula, GA |
| 33 | Kamari Todd | CB | SO | 6'1" | 175 | Gardendale, AL |
| 46 | Grey Reebals | CB | SO | 5'11" | 188 | Birmingham, AL |
| 0 | Sylvester Smith-Reed | S | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Munford, AL |
| 1 | Champ Anthony | S | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 3 | AnQuon Fegans | S | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Anniston, AL |
| 5 | Eric Winters | S | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Enterprise, AL |
| 8 | Kaleb Harris | S | JR | 6'1" | 204 | Bessemer, AL |
| 20 | Jacoby Mathews | S | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Ponchatoula, LA |
| 23 | Fred Gaskin III | S | JR | 5'10" | 202 | Ocala, FL |
| 25 | Damonte Tabb | S | FR | 6'2" | 192 | Alabaster, AL |
| 26 | Wayne Henry | S | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Baltimore, MD |
| 28 | Shadrick Toodle Jr. | S | JR | 6'4" | 210 | Mobile, AL |
| 32 | Cade Carlson | S | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Eads, TN |
| 38 | Alex McPherson | PK | SR | 5'9" | 165 | Fort Payne, AL |
| 41 | Connor Gibbs | PK | SR | 5'10" | 185 | New Orleans, LA |
| 93 | Charley Schwinger | PK | JR | 6'2" | 175 | Houston, TX |
| 14 | Hudson Kaak | P | SR | 6'1" | 222 | Seymour, VIC |
| 37 | John McGuire | P | SO | 6'1" | 202 | Alabaster, AL |
| 39 | Max Bourke | P | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 47 | Travis Wakefield | LS | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Nashville, TN |
| 49 | Hudson Powell | LS | SR | 6'3" | 225 | Nashville, TN |
| 64 | Benton Cantey | LS | SO | 5'8" | 217 | Fort Worth, TX |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 7th at defending the run. The way in is 113th at throwing it, and they are 110th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defenserunning it-0.26#7 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets2.11#9 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down41%#24 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethrowing it+0.16#113 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.19#110 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.40#35
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.26 / 1.36
- Power / stuff (off)
- 87.5% / 16.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 19.3%#39
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.9% / 9.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.07#108 | -0.03#114 | 0.69#45 |
| Defense | -0.19#31 | -0.03#38 | 0.20#40 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1636th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0579th
- Offense success rate45%53rd
- Defense success rate allowed37%53rd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs49%49th
- Offense success — passing downs35%64th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs42%55th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs23%69th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.237th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.083rd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9430th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.055th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.475th
- Defense line yards allowed2.566th
- Offense highlight yards1.464th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0595th
- Offense power success0.8676th
- Defense power success allowed0.5369th
- Offense stuff rate0.1850th
- Defense stuff rate0.1627th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%77th
- Third down distance faced7.621st
- Third down conversion allowed35%58th
- Third down distance forced6.628th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0323rd
- Net success rate — second half0.1882nd
Drives
- Points per drive2.355th
- Points per drive allowed0.6592nd
- Average starting field position2843rd
- Opponent starting field position2293rd
- Available yards gained60%74th
- Available yards allowed38%77th
- Scoring opportunities per drive95%86th
- Scoring opportunities allowed70%76th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.441st
- Points allowed per opportunity1.488th
- Three-and-out rate14%85th
- Three-and-outs forced30%68th
CORE
- CORE offense0.3953rd
- CORE defense-5.987th
- CORE overall6.373rd
Roster
- Returning usage20%21st
- Returning EPA35.820th
- Team talent composite82888th
- Recruiting class rank31.078th
- Recruiting class points22678th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.069 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 21 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 51.2%
- Expected, given the spots
- 50.1%
- Over expected
- +1.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- +23
- Fourth down vs the model
- -14
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Auburn is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Auburn in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.5 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 1-7 | 42% | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 7.2 | -2.2 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 42% | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 6-5 | 6-4 | 55% | 4.7 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 3-5 | 62% | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 2017 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 71% | 9.7 | +0.3 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
2-0 so far, projected to finish 6.3-5.7. Top-four bye in 0.6%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 3.6 points since preseason — won 17-16 over Baylor against an expected margin of +8, so −6.7 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 16% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.
Auburn’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk7at Georgia14.6
- wk13at Alabama12.7
- wk8vs LSU12.2
- wk5at Tennessee10.9
- wk3vs Florida9.5
- wk9at Ole Miss8.5
Who to root for
Games Auburn is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk4Illinois over Ohio State1.2
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia1.0
- wk4Texas over Tennessee0.9
- wk5Vanderbilt over Georgia0.8
- wk5Samford over UAB0.8
- wk12Baylor over Texas Tech0.8
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 3.3-5.713 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk7Auburn at Georgia2.2
- wk13Auburn at Alabama1.3
- wk8LSU at Auburn1.3
- wk5Auburn at Tennessee1.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Auburn is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.3% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Birmingham Bowl11%
- Liberty Bowl9.6%
- Texas Bowl9.5%
- Music City Bowl8.3%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl6.7%
- Gator Bowl5.4%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 13 have sent Auburn a player since 2010 — 36 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Auburn's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.