Davis Wade StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSST 1468
AUB 1670
Projected spread
MSST +5.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
AUB
65% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
MSST (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MSST Elo 1468, AUB Elo 1670) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSST +5.4 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelAUB 65% · MSST 35%
Pick: AUB
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
AUB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMSST
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.1443%
Success rate
42%1.14
Key matchups · Pro
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. AUB rush defense (-0.11 allowed) — edge MSST.
- AUB pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MSST.
- AUB rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MSST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge AUB.
FAQ
Who will win Auburn vs. Mississippi State?
Gridpex's model favors Auburn with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Auburn vs. Mississippi State?
The model projects Auburn by 5.4.
What time is Auburn vs. Mississippi State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Davis Wade Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Auburn at 65% to win, projecting Auburn by 5.4.