Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 3.8 toward 
AUB
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  ALA −10 | ALA −6.2 |
| ALA win | 78% | 65% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Alabama gets at Auburn: 19th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 52nd at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Auburn projects no clear way in against Alabama.
HowALAattacksAUB
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
ALA#19 of 138AUB#52 of 138
The two teams
Auburn
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th at defending the run. The way in is 129th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#5projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#5projected
- Defensefirst and second down#20projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#129projected
Alabama
Alabama throws it: Kalen DeBoer's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 10th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensethrowing it#10projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Defensefirst and second down#12projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1883, AUB Elo 1613 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -6.2 (65% to win) — 3.8 points clear of AUB's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AUB108th19thALAALA81st51stAUBThrough the air
AUB55th49thALAALA73rd131stAUBOn the ground
AUB94th5thALAALA51st59thAUBStaying on the field
AUB20th4thALAALA35th56thAUBTaking care of it
AUB95th14thALAALA118th53rdAUB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 51–32–1 · Alabama has won 6 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| AUB | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#59) | CORE overall | +24.5 (#8) |
| -3 / -6 | offense / defense | +9 / -15 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 4.10 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 0.27 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Auburn vs. Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Alabama with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Auburn vs. Alabama?
The model projects Alabama by 6.2.
What time is Auburn vs. Alabama and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →