Arkansas vs. Auburn Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Arkansas gets at Auburn: 26th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 71st at closing out passing downs. Where Auburn gets at Arkansas: 33rd at running it, against a unit 134th at defending the run. Auburn is also 55th on first and second down, against a unit 128th.
How
ARKattacks
AUB
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 2 games in
ARK41%#26 of 138AUB31%#71 of 138
HowAUBattacksARK
- 1
Run it
running it · 23% this season, 2 games
AUB+0.23#33 of 138ARK+0.22#134 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 23% this season, 2 games
AUB50%#55 of 138ARK52%#128 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 22% this season, 2 games
AUB3.40#39 of 138ARK2.88#108 of 138
The two teams
Arkansas
Arkansas throws it: Ryan Silverfield's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 26th at surviving second and twelve. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 132nd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve41%#26 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.22#134 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points5.09#132 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down52%#128 of 138
Auburn
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 7th at defending the run. The way in is 113th at throwing it, and they are 110th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defenserunning it-0.26#7 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets2.11#9 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down41%#24 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethrowing it+0.16#113 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.19#110 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1678, ARK Elo 1490 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -6.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARK128th33rdAUBAUB61st98thARKThrough the air
ARK52nd117thAUBAUB47th68thARKOn the ground
ARK118th25thAUBAUB24th42ndARKStaying on the field
ARK34th62ndAUBAUB32nd48thARKTaking care of it
ARK104th22ndAUBAUB104th76thARK
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 21–13–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| ARK | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#91) | CORE overall | +14.7 (#29) |
| +3 / +8 | offense / defense | +3 / -12 |
| 1.00 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 4.20 | allowed / drive | 0.65 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +11 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arkansas vs. Auburn?
Gridpex's model favors Auburn with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas vs. Auburn?
The model projects Auburn by 6.6.
What time is Arkansas vs. Auburn and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →