Duquesne vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUQUTeam statsAF
- Q4 8:19AFEvan Medders 4 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–34
- Q3 1:21AFLiam Szarka 2 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–27
- Q2 4:04AFCarter Cremascoli 52 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 9:33AFCarter Cremascoli 21 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:17AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:06AFKemper Hodges 4 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- DUQU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 5.2
Air Force was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Liam Szarka scored 12 of Air Force's points. Air Force routs Duquesne, 34-0 at Falcon Stadium. Air Force led from start to finish and never let Duquesne within striking distance. Liam Szarka threw for 19 yards on five attempts and ran 13 times for 51 yards and two scores.
- PassCarson Camp 7/18, 42 YDS, 2 INT
- RushNess Davis 11 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecAntwon Thomas 3 REC, 27 YDS
- PassLiam Szarka 3/5, 19 YDS
- RushRocco Conti 10 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecMatt Long 1 REC, 18 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Duquesne vs. Air Force?
Duquesne 0, Air Force 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
| DUQU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 107 | Total yards | 450 |
| 53 | Passing yards | 19 |
| 54 | Rushing yards | 431 |
| 8 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 9/22 | Comp/Att | 3/7 |
| 2.4 | Yards per pass | 2.7 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-20 | Penalties | 8-60 |
| 19:10 | Possession | 40:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:33 AF field goal on 4th & 4 at DUQU 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:19AFEvan Medders 4 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–34
- Q3 1:21AFLiam Szarka 2 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–27
- Q2 4:04AFCarter Cremascoli 52 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 9:33AFCarter Cremascoli 21 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:17AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:06AFKemper Hodges 4 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects AF -33.3 (98% to win) — 2.8 points clear of AF's market line of -30.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Air Force's defense did not let Duquesne score
Air Force was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
One team finished its drives
Air Force scored on 67% of its drives to Duquesne's 0%: Liam Szarka (12 pts), Kemper Hodges (6 pts) and Evan Medders (6 pts). Air Force won the turnover battle 0-2, led by Korey Johnson (0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 2.5 tackles) and Max Mustell (1 INT). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Liam Szarka threw for 19 yards on five attempts and ran 13 times for 51 yards and two scores — two of them from inside the 20 and four third-down conversions. Kemper Hodges ran six times for 72 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20. Rocco Conti ran 10 times for 74 yards. For Duquesne, Johness Davis ran 11 times for 32 yards. Carson Camp threw for 42 yards on 18 attempts, with three third-down conversions. Korey Johnson was the disruptive one for Air Force: 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 2.5 tackles.
What Duquesne has to fix
The problems had names: Carson Camp (2 interceptions).
The defensive story
Two names to keep, all for Air Force: Korey Johnson (0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 2.5 tackles) and Max Mustell (1 INT).
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Air Force did exactly what a better team should against Duquesne: leave no doubt.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →