Northern Iowa vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Northern Iowa
Iowa State
▸Final
Jack Trice Stadium
NORTTeam statsISU
279Total yards250
173Pass116
106Rush134
19First downs10
3-153rd down2-11
2Turnovers0
34:24Possession25:37
- Q4 11:30NORTDesmond Hutson 3 Yd pass from Theo Day (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–30
- Q3 8:03NORTMatthew Cook 31 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q3 13:08ISUBenjamin Brahmer 36 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)0–30
- Q2 0:00ISUChase Contreraz 56 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q2 0:48ISUTyler Moore 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht ( PAT failed)0–20
- Q1 1:21ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Chase Contreraz Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:45ISUJeremiah Cooper 58 Yd Interception Return (Chase Contreraz Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
ISU −7
Against the number
ISU covered
line ISU −7
What the numbers say
- ISU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 28% success rate
Kickoff144 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
ISU (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ISU 100%
Closing line
ISU −7
Closing total
41.0
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 9 – 30 ISU
Northern Iowa
- PassTheo Day 16/34, 164 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTye Edwards 16 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecLogan Wolf 3 REC, 40 YDS
Iowa State
- PassRocco Becht 10/13, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCartevious Norton 11 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecBenjamin Brahmer 1 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD
29.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
120
Points / snap
0.33
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 529 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
ISU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Iowa vs. Iowa State?
Northern Iowa 9, Iowa State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
NORT
ISU
39%
Success rate
28%
-0.21
EPA / pass
0.17
-0.14
EPA / rush
0.28
42%
Early-down success
29%
38%
Pass success
32%
41%
Rush success
26%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
25%
Stuffed rush rate
22%
57%
Pass rate
41%
7.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.2
NORT
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
74 scrimmage snaps
ISU
6.2 yards to go on 3rd down
46 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 279 | Total yards | 250 |
| 173 | Passing yards | 116 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 19 | First downs | 10 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/35 | Comp/Att | 14/18 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-52 | Penalties | 9-81 |
| 34:24 | Possession | 25:37 |
NORT
7/9 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
ISU
4/8 with the model
−2.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 8:04 ISU punt on 4th & 1 at ISU 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ISU 4/12 scoring drives
NORTTD4 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
ISUPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 19Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 2Q1
ISUTD7 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q1
NORTPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 30Q1
ISUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 11Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 22Q2
ISUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 47Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q2
ISUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 35Q2
NORTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q2
ISUTD6 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q2
NORTINT4 pl, 13 yds· own 29Q2
ISUFG1 pl, 0 yds· opp 38Q2
ISUTD4 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q3
NORTFG12 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q3
ISUPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 30Q3
NORTPUNT9 pl, 38 yds· own 12Q3
ISUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 14Q4
NORTTD5 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q4
ISUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 7Q4
NORTDOWNS15 pl, 59 yds· own 36Q4
ISUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 5Q4
NORTEND3 pl, -6 yds· own 27Q4
- Q4 11:30NORTDesmond Hutson 3 Yd pass from Theo Day (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–30
- Q3 8:03NORTMatthew Cook 31 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q3 13:08ISUBenjamin Brahmer 36 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)0–30
- Q2 0:00ISUChase Contreraz 56 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q2 0:48ISUTyler Moore 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht ( PAT failed)0–20
- Q1 1:21ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Chase Contreraz Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:45ISUJeremiah Cooper 58 Yd Interception Return (Chase Contreraz Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →