LSU vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsMSST
- Q4 4:26MSSTAntonio Harmon 4 Yd pass from Mike Wright (Kyle Ferrie Kick)41–14
- Q4 12:11LSUJayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)41–7
- Q3 3:27LSUJayden Daniels 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)34–7
- Q3 10:41LSUDamian Ramos 41 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 0:50MSSTLideatrick Griffin 9 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)24–7
- Q2 3:24LSUJosh Williams 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)24–0
- Q2 14:11LSUMalik Nabers 33 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)17–0
- Q1 3:38LSUMalik Nabers 26 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:36LSUDamian Ramos 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MSST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 6.3
- PassJayden Daniels 30/34, 361 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJayden Daniels 15 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMalik Nabers 13 REC, 239 YDS, 2 TD
- PassWill Rogers 11/28, 103 YDS
- RushWoody Marks 8 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecZavion Thomas 3 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 530 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:38LSU +17%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q2 14:11LSU +12%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 33 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q1 6:36LSU +8%
Damian Ramos 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:50MSST +6%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
- Q2 3:24LSU +5%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Mississippi State?
LSU 41, Mississippi State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MSST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 530 | Total yards | 201 |
| 367 | Passing yards | 107 |
| 163 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 26 | First downs | 10 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 31/37 | Comp/Att | 12/29 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 3.7 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 4-41 |
| 38:39 | Possession | 21:21 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:11 LSU go for it on 4th & 7 at MSST 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:26MSSTAntonio Harmon 4 Yd pass from Mike Wright (Kyle Ferrie Kick)41–14
- Q4 12:11LSUJayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)41–7
- Q3 3:27LSUJayden Daniels 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)34–7
- Q3 10:41LSUDamian Ramos 41 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 0:50MSSTLideatrick Griffin 9 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)24–7
- Q2 3:24LSUJosh Williams 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)24–0
- Q2 14:11LSUMalik Nabers 33 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)17–0
- Q1 3:38LSUMalik Nabers 26 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:36LSUDamian Ramos 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1627, LSU Elo 1687 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST PK (51% to win) — 9.0 points clear of MSST's market line of +9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 74–37–3 · LSU has won 3 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| LSU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.8 (#10) | CORE overall | -7.1 (#92) |
| +31 / +10 | offense / defense | -11 / -3 |
| 3.86 | points / drive | 1.45 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →