UT Rio Grande Valley vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UT RTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 0:04UT RAtzel Chavez Jr. 1 Yd Run (Brysen Gardner Kick)16–45
- Q4 2:56UTSAA'Marion Peterson 53 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)9–45
- Q4 6:15UT RBrysen Gardner 40 Yd Field Goal 9–38
- Q4 10:41UTSADJ Allen Jr. 62 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–38
- Q2 0:00UT RBrysen Gardner 24 Yd Field Goal 6–31
- Q2 0:54UTSAMichael Petro 30 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 7:00UTSAWill Henderson III 75 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)3–28
- Q2 7:11UT RBrysen Gardner 44 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 12:40UTSAAhamad Chapman 49 Yd Interception Return (Michael Petro Kick)0–21
- Q2 13:16UTSABrandon Young Jr. 7 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:51UTSAAJ Wilson Jr. 36 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Owen McCown scored 18 of UTSA's points. UTSA routs UT Rio Grande Valley, 45-16 at Alamodome. UTSA led from start to finish and never let UT Rio Grande Valley within striking distance. Owen McCown threw for 275 yards on 27 attempts with three touchdowns and ran one times for 5 yards.
- PassGarret Rangel 19/32, 152 YDS
- RushBroderick Taylor 6 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecJaydon Smith 2 REC, 68 YDS
- PassOwen McCown 22/27, 275 YDS, 3 TD
- RushWill Henderson III 9 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDJ Allen Jr. 3 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UT Rio Grande Valley vs. UTSA?
UT Rio Grande Valley 16, UTSA 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
| UT R | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 422 | Total yards | 527 |
| 245 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 177 | Rushing yards | 252 |
| 22 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 26/47 | Comp/Att | 22/29 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 8.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 13-105 | Penalties | 11-115 |
| 34:49 | Possession | 25:11 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:11 UT R field goal on 4th & 2 at UTSA 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:04UT RAtzel Chavez Jr. 1 Yd Run (Brysen Gardner Kick)16–45
- Q4 2:56UTSAA'Marion Peterson 53 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)9–45
- Q4 6:15UT RBrysen Gardner 40 Yd Field Goal 9–38
- Q4 10:41UTSADJ Allen Jr. 62 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–38
- Q2 0:00UT RBrysen Gardner 24 Yd Field Goal 6–31
- Q2 0:54UTSAMichael Petro 30 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 7:00UTSAWill Henderson III 75 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)3–28
- Q2 7:11UT RBrysen Gardner 44 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 12:40UTSAAhamad Chapman 49 Yd Interception Return (Michael Petro Kick)0–21
- Q2 13:16UTSABrandon Young Jr. 7 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:51UTSAAJ Wilson Jr. 36 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -31.2 (97% to win) — 2.7 points clear of UTSA's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Owen McCown produced five of UTSA's seven explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The turnover battle was the game
UTSA won the turnover battle 0-4, chiefly Nate Robinson Jr. (1 INT, 1.5 tackles) and Ahamad Chapman (1 INT, 0.5 tackles). UTSA started 8 yards closer to the end zone on an average drive. Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Owen McCown threw for 275 yards on 27 attempts with three touchdowns and ran one times for 5 yards — that score from inside the 20 and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. DJ Allen caught three passes for 116 yards, one of them for a touchdown — a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. A'Marion Peterson ran eight times for 96 yards and one score. For UT Rio Grande Valley, Aidan Jakobsohn threw for 91 yards on 11 attempts, including a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Broderick Taylor ran six times for 73 yards. Jaydon Smith caught two passes for 68 yards. Nate Robinson Jr. was the disruptive one for UTSA: 1 INT, 1.5 tackles.
What UT Rio Grande Valley has to fix
The problems had names: Aidan Jakobsohn (2 interceptions).
Who got home
Two names to keep, all for UTSA: Nate Robinson Jr. (1 INT, 1.5 tackles) and Ahamad Chapman (1 INT, 0.5 tackles).
How it unfolded
UTSA struck first through Owen McCown, led 31-6 at the half and UT Rio Grande Valley got the final points on a late touchdown by Atzel Chavez Jr..
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for UTSA. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Atzel Chavez Jr. was responsible for 6 of UT Rio Grande Valley's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →