Duquesne vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Duquesne

0017

West Virginia0-1

▸0056

Final

Milan Puskar Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
DUQU	7	3	7	0	17
WVU	7	28	7	14	56

DUQUTeam statsWVU

234Total yards619

231Pass315

3Rush304

10First downs30

5-163rd down6-13

2Turnovers2

30:49Possession31:39

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:08WVUD.J. Oliver 5 Yd Run (Danny King Kick)17–56
• Q4 9:50WVUNicco Marchiol 1 Yd Run (Danny King Kick)17–49
• Q3 1:02DUQUTedy Afful 16 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)17–42
• Q3 4:40WVUJahiem White 19 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)10–42
• Q2 0:39WVUPreston Fox 22 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)10–35
• Q2 3:57WVUHudson Clement 46 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)10–28
• Q2 6:49WVUHudson Clement 70 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)10–21
• Q2 8:14DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 39 Yd Field Goal 10–14
• Q2 14:40WVUJaylen Anderson 8 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:49WVUHudson Clement 14 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:01DUQUDarryl Powell Jr. 38 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

WVU −38.5

Against the number

WVU covered

line WVU −38.5

What the numbers say

• DUQU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WVU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 5.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

WVU 100%50%DUQU 100%

Kickoff157 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

WVU (top)DUQU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WVU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

WVU −38.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

DUQU 17 – 56 WVU

Leaders

Duquesne

• PassDarius Perrantes 14/31, 220 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
• RushTaj Butts 10 CAR, 23 YDS
• RecTedy Afful 4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD

West Virginia

• PassGarrett Greene 10/18, 240 YDS, 4 TD
• RushJahiem White 12 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
• RecHudson Clement 5 REC, 177 YDS, 3 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

145

Points / snap

0.50

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WVU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 581 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

WVU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUCF vs Kent State56-6WUAB vs North Carolina A&T35-6WFlorida A&M vs Jackson State28-10WOregon State vs San José State42-17WUCLA vs San Diego State35-10

Fourth downs

16 calls

DUQU gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.DUQU 8/9 · WVU 7/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Duquesne vs. West Virginia?

Duquesne 17, West Virginia 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DUQU

WVU

20%

Success rate

50%

0.19

EPA / pass

0.26

-0.41

EPA / rush

0.51

16%

Early-down success

50%

25%

Pass success

44%

12%

Rush success

54%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

52%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

59%

Pass rate

41%

10.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.8

DUQU

10.0 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

WVU

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

84 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DUQU		WVU
234	Total yards	619
231	Passing yards	315
3	Rushing yards	304
10	First downs	30
5-16	3rd down	6-13
0-1	4th down	3-5
15/32	Comp/Att	17/32
7.2	Yards per pass	9.8
0.1	Yards per rush	6.2
2	Turnovers	2
3-35	Penalties	4-30
30:49	Possession	31:39

Fourth downs

16 calls

DUQU

8/9 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

WVU

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 10:03 DUQU go for it on 4th & 10 at WVU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.27 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DUQU 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →WVU 8/13 scoring drives

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1

DUQUTD4 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

WVUPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 9Q1

WVUTD8 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

DUQUINT7 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1

WVUTD9 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

WVUDOWNS4 pl, 2 yds· opp 43Q2

DUQUFG9 pl, 38 yds· own 41Q2

WVUTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

WVUTD3 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q2

WVUTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q2

DUQUEND3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

WVUDOWNS6 pl, 34 yds· own 26Q3

DUQUDOWNS5 pl, 23 yds· own 40Q3

WVUFUM5 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q3

WVUTD7 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

DUQUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

WVUPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 35Q3

DUQUINT2 pl, 5 yds· own 22Q4

WVUTD6 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q4

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

WVUTD12 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4

DUQUEND3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:08WVUD.J. Oliver 5 Yd Run (Danny King Kick)17–56
• Q4 9:50WVUNicco Marchiol 1 Yd Run (Danny King Kick)17–49
• Q3 1:02DUQUTedy Afful 16 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)17–42
• Q3 4:40WVUJahiem White 19 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)10–42
• Q2 0:39WVUPreston Fox 22 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)10–35
• Q2 3:57WVUHudson Clement 46 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)10–28
• Q2 6:49WVUHudson Clement 70 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)10–21
• Q2 8:14DUQUBrian Bruzdewicz 39 Yd Field Goal 10–14
• Q2 14:40WVUJaylen Anderson 8 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:49WVUHudson Clement 14 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:01DUQUDarryl Powell Jr. 38 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →