Fresno State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsUSC
- Q4 5:46USCD. Redeaux run for 5 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)0–39
- Q3 5:15USCTeam Safety0–32
- Q2 0:14USCWaymond Jordan 2 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–30
- Q2 4:07USCTrent Mosley 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–23
- Q2 7:09USCTeam Safety0–16
- Q2 12:27USCTrent Mosley 68 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:27USCTanook Hines 8 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–7
How it was won
Third‑down efficiency
USC stayed on schedule on 55.7% of snaps and converted 5 of 8 third downs, while Fresno managed only 29.5% and 2 of 10, stalling its offense.
Maiava's passing
Maiava completed 23 of 25 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns, connecting especially with Mosley for 104 yards and two scores.
Fresno's 4th‑down gamble
Fresno's decision to punt on 4th‑and‑6 at the 42, which the model favored to go for it, cost them about 0.55 expected points.
Yardage domination
USC amassed 552 yards on nearly 39 minutes of possession while limiting Fresno to 116 yards in just over 21 minutes, despite both teams turning the ball twice.
How the model called it
USC was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Fresno State went three-and-out on 60% of its drives. That is the game. USC (1-0) routs Fresno State, 39-0 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC led from start to finish and never let Fresno State within striking distance. Jayden Maiava threw for 349 yards on 25 attempts with three touchdowns.
- PassJayden Mandal 7/15, 77 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRayshon Luke 8 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecHarold Duvall 2 REC, 34 YDS
- PassJayden Maiava 23/25, 349 YDS, 3 TD
- RushWaymond Jordan 11 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrent Mosley 4 REC, 104 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. USC?
Fresno State 0, USC 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| FRES | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 116 | Total yards | 552 |
| 77 | Passing yards | 412 |
| 39 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 9 | First downs | 27 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 5-8 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 7/15 | Comp/Att | 29/31 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 13.3 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-10 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 21:08 | Possession | 38:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:12 FRES punt on 4th & 6 at USC 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:46USCD. Redeaux run for 5 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)0–39
- Q3 5:15USCTeam Safety0–32
- Q2 0:14USCWaymond Jordan 2 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–30
- Q2 4:07USCTrent Mosley 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–23
- Q2 7:09USCTeam Safety0–16
- Q2 12:27USCTrent Mosley 68 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:27USCTanook Hines 8 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1752, FRES Elo 1532 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -24.3 (96% to win) — 2.3 points clear of USC's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FRES | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.3 (#115) | CORE overall | +32.7 (#2) |
| -8 / +4 | offense / defense | +22 / -11 |
| -0.44 | points / drive | 4.28 |
| 3.89 | allowed / drive | 1.11 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 6% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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USC's defense did not let Fresno State score
USC was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
The big plays only went one way
USC produced 11 plays of 15+ yards to Fresno State's 2: Jayden Maiava (involved in 8), Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (involved in 3) and Trent Mosley (involved in 2). USC won the turnover battle 1-3, led by Prophet Brown (1 INT). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Jayden Maiava threw for 349 yards on 25 attempts with three touchdowns, including that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Trent Mosley caught four passes for 104 yards, two of them for touchdowns. Tanook Hines caught two passes for 18 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with that score from inside the 20. For Fresno State, Rayshon Luke ran eight times for 21 yards and caught one pass for 7 yards. Jayden Mandal threw for 77 yards on 15 attempts and lost 19 yards on eight carries, including two third-down conversions. Bryson Donelson ran six times for 15 yards. Prophet Brown was the disruptive one for USC: 1 INT.
USC ran on 41% of plays on 1st down all season; in this game, 72% (n=36 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
What Fresno State has to fix
The problems had names: Jayden Mandal (1 interception and 1 lost fumble).
The defensive story
Two names to keep: Prophet Brown (1 INT) for USC and Kiontre Harris (1 INT, 2 tackles) for Fresno State.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
USC did exactly what a better team should against Fresno State: leave no doubt.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →