Mississippi Valley State vs. Sacramento State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsSAC
- Q4 3:21SACDaniel Swinney 3 Yd Run (Saul Marks Kick)0–52
- Q4 12:07SACJaylen Patterson 43 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)0–45
- Q3 2:00SACMatt Coleman 63 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:28SACJace Wilson 24 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–31
- Q2 8:48SACMatt Coleman 19 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–24
- Q2 11:10SACGrant Meadors 25 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 0:59SACJamar Curtis 1 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:52SACMatt Coleman 5 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MISS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SAC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.4
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Mississippi Valley State never had a foothold. Sacramento State (0-1) runs away from Mississippi Valley State, 52-0 at Hornet Stadium. Sacramento State led from start to finish and never let Mississippi Valley State within striking distance. Jackson Sharman threw for 247 yards on 28 attempts with four touchdowns.
- PassJordon Davis 3/6, 24 YDS
- RushDezmond Ray 3 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecJackson Hampton 1 REC, 18 YDS
- PassJackson Sharman 18/28, 247 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushDaniel Swinney 8 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMatt Coleman 6 REC, 141 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSAC up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi Valley State vs. Sacramento State?
Mississippi Valley State 0, Sacramento State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SAC) was correct.
| MISS | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 147 | Total yards | 453 |
| 43 | Passing yards | 250 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 203 |
| 6 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/19 | Comp/Att | 19/29 |
| 2.3 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-117 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 26:52 | Possession | 33:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:55 MISS punt on 4th & 1 at MISS 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:21SACDaniel Swinney 3 Yd Run (Saul Marks Kick)0–52
- Q4 12:07SACJaylen Patterson 43 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)0–45
- Q3 2:00SACMatt Coleman 63 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:28SACJace Wilson 24 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–31
- Q2 8:48SACMatt Coleman 19 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–24
- Q2 11:10SACGrant Meadors 25 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 0:59SACJamar Curtis 1 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:52SACMatt Coleman 5 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects SAC -41.9 (99% to win) — 3.9 points clear of SAC's market line of -38. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Mississippi Valley State never reached the end zone against Sacramento State
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Sacramento State threw on 77% of plays on early downs all season; in this game, 39% (n=56 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
One team finished its drives
Sacramento State scored on 53% of its drives to Mississippi Valley State's 0%, chiefly Jackson Sharman (24 pts), Matthew Coleman (18 pts) and Jace Wilson (6 pts). Sacramento State produced 9 plays of 15+ yards to Mississippi Valley State's 3: Jackson Sharman (involved in 4), Matthew Coleman (involved in 2) and Jace Wilson (involved in 2). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Jackson Sharman threw for 247 yards on 28 attempts with four touchdowns — two of them from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Matthew Coleman caught six passes for 141 yards, three of them for touchdowns — two of them from inside the 20. Jace Wilson caught three passes for 48 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Mississippi Valley State, Carter James ran 10 times for 23 yards and caught one pass for 5 yards. Dezmond Ray ran three times for 36 yards and caught one pass for 8 yards. Chakai Scott was the disruptive one for Sacramento State: 1 blocked kick.
What Mississippi Valley State has to fix
The problems had names: Jordan Davis (1 lost fumble).
Who got home
Three names to keep: Jamari Stokes (1 INT, 4.5 tackles) for Mississippi Valley State, Diego Davis (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1.5 tackles) for Sacramento State and Collin Kallhoff (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 fumble rec, 1.5 tackles) for Sacramento State. 3 of Sacramento State's 3 sacks came from the defensive line.
The order of events
Sacramento State struck first through Jackson Sharman, led 31-0 at the half and Sacramento State got the final points on a late touchdown by Daniel Swinney.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Sacramento State. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →